Spikecollie
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Posts posted by Spikecollie
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Sferics just kicking off over here in France, some near but not too near me. An active little cell just North of Montpellier is worth watching for it's rainfall impact. It'll intensify day by day...enjoy! Still 26c by the way, and the beer was gooood - Pelforth for the initiated, and I had two...
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Weird afternoon here. Just had some work to do after classes but I'm going out soon to have a beer and watch the clouds go by. 27c some altocumulus castellanus beginning to appear and some cirrus virga. Free day tomorrow to cloudspot and window shop!
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There is plenty of mid level CAPE during the night. I think we will first see thunderstorms across the SW, S on Thursday afternoon and then spreading further N through the night and becoming elevated? Then more storms developing on Friday as the sun gets to work on the still unstable atmosphere.
And Saturday - still loads of instability and ML CAPE. I'm looking forward to a great cloudspotting trip back to the UK late Saturday afternoon! Me thinks I have storms to enjoy before that though...
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It's all evolving quite slowly over here in France. Alertes oranges were put out yesterday for Aude and Herault (south) and although there has been some incredible rain in Herault and also Gard, Aude has not yet been touched. The warning has been extended until tomorrow morning as things are moving more slowly than the forecasters expected. It's the lack of storm movement that is worrying people - I have had night and day long storms down there when conditions have favoured.
All regions will get storms here - nothing exceptional in the main (for France), but some strong thunderstorms will be in there. Although I have experienced these many times, I never take them for granted and enjoy every moment. The instability is substantial and I think the UK will see some of this - the ML CAPE values are indeed very promising as folks have pointed out - whatever happens let's all stay safe and enjoy...
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I'm baking here in Dijon. 28c today and that makes for an uncomfortable 8 hours of teaching in classroom with no aircon! It's 22c still now and there's no air movement at all and it feels more and more humid. I think Thursday, Friday and Saturday will see storms here - I'm probably heading back on Saturday so camera at the ready for those CuNbs, but I'd like some elevated night storms to try some photos - Thursday and Friday look excellent for those!
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The plume will deliver but I may need to send you photos...!
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Arrived this evening in Paris. Some very bouncy thermal turbulence (I was fast asleep until Spanish man started squealing and grabbed my hand!) It's too hot to sleep here in Dijon...
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As I said in the convective thread, this seems to be a very similar setup to September 2006 when warm thundery weather came up from France. I've been watching this all week on the French weather sites and they have been getting more and more committed to it. I think come about Wednesday the alerts will start to be issued over there. They are very clear on the warm, unstable air coming up from the Iberian peninsula. Temperatures progged over there up to 30c. I'll be your roving reporter!
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Indeed...if the outputs continue to show this it could be quite an interesting period! I cannot remember the last time I've had thunderstorms in September in my area to be honest.
I've just checked and it was September 14 2006 when we had the Leeds tornado! My friend and I were running a training event in a marquee and it got really scary...then there were more at the end of the month in both countries because we ran the same event in northern France and were delayed for hours coming back to the UK - similar temperatures and setup I think in northern France next week as back then...Dijon and Paris in the thunderstorms again for me!
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I know it's early days, but there are some interesting CAPE and LI values being predicted for next week:
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I think I said earlier in the week that several French forecasting sites have been hinting at the thundery breakdown. They're pretty committed to it now just about country wide from Wednesday onward, so it looks like I'll have yet another "son et lumière"...
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Just spotted the potential from Sunday which continues to as far as I can see on GFS which is Wednesday. Temps warm up a bit too. I hope we can get a bit of excitement again from this possibility and get a nice active thread again
Indeed. I'm off to France on Monday and notice that Météo France and progging t-storms more or less countrywide from mid-week. Not surprising when it's getting to 27c. September can exceed all expectations!
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Looks like an interesting night ahead for us here in Limousin. Alerte orange from Météo France for thunderstorms, flooding and up to 100km/h wind gusts.
We've actually had a lovely weekend and week so far, there have been some thundery showers but we have been out in our shorts every day, and even got some lake swimming in...
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Incredible here...I've seen a lot of storms, but these are awesome! Lights going on and off, no meal cooked yet!
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Just seen that I am under an Estofex level 2! We had a few introductory rumbles and some heavy rain earlier, but it's now hot and sunny but quite windy, and there are some great clouds developing. Activity is progged to go on all evening and most of the night, so this could be fun...
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Some great t-storm prospects for here in Limousin tomorrow, will keep you posted! Hatten the batches if needed in the UK and stay safe if ex-TS Bertha hits...
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We had a 90 minute thunderstorm here in Limousin this morning which started at about 0900. Daytime darkness, and the storm seemed very elevated and was very slow moving. The pre-storm clouds were amazing. Magic!
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Looking good here in Limousin for this afternoon after yesterday evenings CuNbs flopped as soon as they got here. We got one enormous rumble of thunder and that was that, but they loped off over Creuse so there was some nice distant lightning.
The UK looks soggy and unpleasant...!
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Going back home today from France. In total, I've had 2 thunderstorms. 1 nearby severe thunderstorm and a light thunderstorm overhead.
Hope you enjoyed your stay - I think you'll be missing some real thunderstorm potential over here...ah well!
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I'm here in Limousin where it's currently 27c. Some nice storms on the menu from Friday - woohoo! We've already had too humdingers, one on Monday morning in Northern France which meant we stayed in our tent for an extra two hours because it was too wet with too much lightning to come out, and another on Monday evening when we arrived at the house - fortunately after we had unloaded the car - the rain was biblical and some great CGs.
For now it's about enjoying the warmth, sorting the garden and some nice eats and drinks...
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Had nothing more than distant thunder since May. Very dissapointed! Not a single proper storm since then!
We got a nice one this afternoon, no visible lightning but lots of thunder and heavy rain. We stayed out the whole time doing the garden...lovely!
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We had a few flashes and rumbles in the early hours of this morning. Just continuous moderate rain right now, but very humid. I went out this morning to watch and the rain was so warm. I have a very wet dressing gown! It was almost bright so not as spectacular as a dark night time storm and it wasn't directly overhead, but nice to see nonetheless.
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One thing that's struck me to previous plumes we've had over the years, there's very little crap in the sky above. The visibility is stunning today for a PLUME. Quite a bit of moisture can be seen in the atmosphere today but there's more chance of strong heating today and then more chance of re-radiating to aid storms tonight.
Hardly any CIN over majority of England.
It's weird up here in Yorkshire. It's trying to clear all the time but not managing it, and the hills are shrouded in thick mist. I'm wondering whether we have had enough heating to support anything in the way of t-storms. It's only 19c, but I guess the instability will do its job.
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Ok, I'm in Iffendic near Monfort near Rennes, currently only had a few light showers so far but feeling nearly unbearable outside. Thunderstorms seem to be going E of here currently but I'm not giving up hope yet.
Hang in there William, the Rennes METAR is progging you some nice t-storms this evening and right the way through the night - the best time for them. Enjoy what you get and have a great holiday. And by the way, welcome to French humidité - it's a whole new concept in warm!!!
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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
More to come hopefully, too! Some of the strongest storms are expected in northern and north western France today tomorrow and Saturday, the south of the UK at least should get home grown storms and imports...