LetItSnow!
-
Posts
1,927 -
Joined
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by LetItSnow!
-
-
I hope to see a winter like 1683/1684 in my lifetime. Some may say it’s not possible but I still believe. 337 years later and it’s still not been beat in the record book. Winter 2021/2022 I dare you
-
Wintry showers and hard frosts to end September? I’d take it. Interesting output from the ECM but I never take anything at day 10 too seriously. Would be funny if we had similarly cold conditions in Sep/Oct as in April. If I had a penny for every time a “no way that could happen” chart actually happened I might be close to purchasing a Freddo.
-
5
-
-
An unusual occurrence in what was in most areas a dry month in a dry autumn. Fascinating read.
-
I’ve always been sceptical of those types of forecasts anyway. I really don’t believe that things like a small window of rainfall or temperature or how the autumn pattern is have much to do with anything with how the following winter will pan out, but that’s just my opinion.
In terms of this September, did not see it coming! But caution to those who think 16+ is nailed on, it’s definitely not. September is a cooling time of year and any northerly snap late in the month + downwards corrections could see us dip, but regardless of that, it’s very most likely coming out warmer than average. The question is how much?
Only last year September tricked us with its warm first half…
-
3
-
-
I remember reading about 1540 being an absolutely extreme summer across the UK & Europe. Some of the reports, particularly on the advanced growth of fruits and such, really paint how extremely hot it must have been. If only we had 500mb charts and the C.E.T. series as old as that. Reports show a very mild and dry winter, very warm spring and then an exceptionally hot summer with water shortages by May (Italy). Even Scandinavia reported a lack of rain. Research seems to suggest it’s on a par with 2003, but there’s a 20% chance it could have been hotter than that. I can’t imagine the same type of set up in the modern age.
-
It's been five years since, what is in my opinion my favourite autumn in living memory. What I loved about it was the variability and sheer lack of windstorms which gave an incredibly colourful display of leaves. Let's take a look down memory lane.
Sep. 2016 was the warmest September for ten years, mostly down to an exceptional heatwave mid-month.
The month opened generally unsettled but quite warm in the south. The 3rd was a rare cloudy, wet and windy day with low pressure overhead, but it wasn't to last. By the 7th we began to draw up very warm air from the south; 29.3C at Gravesend.
A brief cooler interlude preluded an exceptional hot spell and some big thunderstorms. On the 13th, courtesy of a heat low across France, we dragged up some exceptionally hot upper-air temperatures. This led to 34.4C being recorded at Gravesend (good ole Gravesend). This was the hottest day of the entire year, extrodinarily late. Big thunderstorms followed.
The second-half of the month was much quieter, generally on the dry side but with changeable interludes. Never overly cold either, just seasonable. Overall a very memorable September, especially after quite a mixed summer.
Oct. 2016 was a very quiet month with very little in the way of stormy weather, something which aided a fantastic display of colour on the leaves. It was a very average October for temperature, but more noteworthy was how dry it was, under 40% of the average rainfall. Only E. Scotland recieved near-average rainfall. It was also the sunniest October on record in N. Scotland and sunnier than average overall. It was a very easterly month.
D espite this, the month did start unsettled under a weak trough. I remember this well, as this brought a sharp drop in temperature and some heavy showers, much needed as it had been bone dry since early July. It didn't last, and soon a Scandinavian high began to take control. A lot of the upper air temperatures throughout this month would have been quite chilly. Sunshine totals weren't particularly high on the east coast, indicative of cloudier, drizzly weather there. I just seem to remember this month for being utterly and wholely benign. It was lovely... if you like that sort of thing! I'm quite surprised looking back at how snowy these synoptics would have been if they occured just two/three months later!
The month ended very warm however, with 22.2c at Trawscoed (Dyfed) on the 31st.
Nov. 2016 was a much colder than average month, in complete contrast with September. It was also very sunny, widely so. It was, in my experience, probably the wintriest month of the whole winter. It was colder than the December and February it preceded!
It bean wintry and on the 5th/6th we had a northerly plunge. It didn't bring any snow to me in Kent but I remember it being cold, frosty and clear, the perfect Bonfire Night conditions. A more changeable period followed and the 14th/15th brought the mildest feeling part of the month. I remember the 15th being very dark, dank, mild and humid. It was the only day of the month like it. Colder conditions soon followed. The 20th/21st brought the only real stormy weather of the entire autumn, but even this was atypical, with low pressure coming up from the southwest. I remember this night quite well. Very windy and wet with very heavy showers tracking northwards. That cleared very quickly and then the month ended under an anticyclone. This period of weather was my favourite of the entire season. This was very cold where I am. From the 25th to the 30th there were some very cold nights with days barely getting much above freezing and sparkling sunshine. It was the perfect way to close a wonderful season.
The autumn itself came in very close to average in terms of temperature, but was much drier and sunnier than average. What are your thoughts on this autumn? Are they as fond as mine or do you prefer proper wet and windy autumns like 2000 & 2019?
-
2
-
-
From my personal experiences: I spent June & July in Kent and August near Carlisle.
June: Exceedingly cool, very wet and very dull until the 22nd. I remember hanging out with friends on the 22nd just before the hot spell and we were remarking how it was the first sunny, warm day in what felt like a month. The heat at the end of the month I remember, but I don't remember it feeling out of the ordinary. I know cool air from the North Sea or something like that stopped us from exceeding 33-34C that day. The thing I remember most about it was the incessant heavy rain. It started on the 4th, which I actually remember being thankful for, as the ground was a little dry at that point. Then it never stopped. I remember a period around the 10th-13th that poured and poured. I was in Maidstone at the time. We missed the worst but I remember radar watching and areas to my north like Snodland got hit hard. Then they were in the news for recording in excess of 100mm in one afternoon. I also experienced strong thunderstorms on the 17th and the early hours of the 25th.
July: Thoroughly unremarkable until the 25th, then remaining unremarkable afterwards. Most of my memory recalls the first three or so weeks of July being changeable with sunny days mixed with the odd cloudy and cool one, but never anything that remarkable. One exception was on the 20th when I actually witnessed one of the most intense rainfalls I've ever seen. A storm rumbled up and gave Maidstone an absolute monstrous deluge, to the point that water was flowing up to our front door. The sound of the rain was so loud. Then of course came the heat on the 25th. I generally remember feeling miserably hot and humid in my victorian terrace. Didn't last long though, it turned much cooler by the 26th with more thunderstorms. I remember the wind blowing through the house feeling cold and the constant rumbling of thunder and lightning strikes despite it still being late. The final days of the month did a 180 and it was very cool, cloudy and generally poor.
August: Very wet and dull. The least memorable of the three months as I didn't really witness much in the way of the extreme weather. The entrance to the month was unsettled but humid. I remember around the 9th there being an unusually warm and windy way. It was very wet and rain fell frequently. Maps confirm that NW England had a very wet August so that confirms my memory. Just really miserable a lot of the time, but there were some sunny and warm spells. I think the warmest I experienced that month was a very benign 26C. I did experience some torrential rain on the 18th that, while not the most extreme, was pretty monstrous.
September: Thought I'd add September too. I spent the first-half of the month in the north but came home on the 21st. Whenever I see this month regarded as warm I'm always a little confused as any warmth in the south I missed out on. The first half I remember being very benign. Sunny/mixed clouds kind of days and some chilly nights. By the time I came home that's when autumn really kicked into gear and it didn't stop raining. That pattern persisted until mid-March.
Overall, I enjoyed it. I enjoy unusually cool and wet conditions in summer from a meteological standpoint, so Jun. 2019 particularly interested me. I genuinely believed we were on our way for our coldest June since 1991 but the hot end spoiled it. I also think July was spoiled by the heatwave at the end as that was turning into quite a benign but pleasant month. By August, things in my personal life had gotten quite stressful so the unremmitingly dull and wet weather only compounded that, despite my aforementioned usual enjoyment of such conditions. Take the heat spikes out and I would have enjoyed it much more.
-
1
-
-
Favourite
1) April through June - love this time of year for the pretty flowers, blossom, trees coming into leaf, spring showers and the overall increasing light.
2) September & October - the slow descent into cooler and crisp weather and the beautiful leaves. 2016 was a particularly good autumn as the sunshine and lack of wind gave beautiful displays.
3) February & March - the general feeling that the worst of the winter is over and the hope of spring
4) July & August - I'm cheating but I couldn't not mention them as the sunny, warm days and the overall joy of summer is lovely. However, hot spells like 2019 & 2020 can make it unbearable.
Least fond
1) November into December - not bad if cold, snowy and overall seasonable, but when mild, it can be unbearable. the seemingly unending mild dross and lack of light can really be hard to cope with.
2) January - same as above. if it's cold and snowy it's fine but when mild it can feel like forever. I particularly remember the winter of 2020 seemingly lasting forever.
3) I don't really have a third. These are all general answers and can be different based on the year. For example, autumn 2016 I found beautiful, whereas autumns like 2014 seem boring and dull.
-
As we progress further into September and October, any easterlies will quickly become quite cloudy, raw feeling and drizzly
-
Absolutely fascinating read. As someone who is very much a person who loves sorting through data AND has a passion for weather and meteorology, I just want to say thank you for putting in the effort to post all this. It must take so incredibly long. It is much appreciated
-
1
-
-
Thoroughly pleasant feeling day, no oppresiveness to the heat like you get in midsummer. Longer nights lead to more pleasantly cooler evenings too. Got me hungering to be by the sea
-
5
-
-
1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
2015-16, 16-17 and 19-20 nog much better from a cold and snow perspective..
At least 2016/2017 benefitted from a seasonabl January... Not sure about in the north but down in the south I seem to remember Jan. 2017 seeming seasonable most of the time and we even managed a decent snowfall on the 13th. There was also a bit of a forgotten easterly in the first-half of Feb. 2017 though I don't seem to remember anything about it so there must be a reason it's forgotten about! After a decently frosty & cold November it was a let down.
I'm off course! I gave my predictions and I still think 21/22 will be the one to deliver the goods properly this time. 20/21 was a teaser... I hope
-
1
-
-
22 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
You could argue 1978-79 was worse in one way to 1962-63 because there was more low pressure involved and the changes were more disruptive. I wasn't around in 1962-63 but did people begin to adapt more to the conditions later in that winter? That would have been difficult in a winter where there were regular breaks in the cold pattern, if even short lived.
What's reflective of the very low pressure dominated, snowy winter is that while most cold winters are drier than average, 1978/1979 was a much wetter than average winter. This was mostly down to a very wet December, but January and February had more "rainfall" than you would assume cold months would. Jan. 1979, despite averaging sub-zero, has an EWP of 89.6mm and Feb. 1979, 72.8mm. Spring 1979 was also very wet as well as cold. I believe I read it ranks in the upper echelons of very wet springs in the 20th century. March and May were particularly wet. Overall, Dec. 1978 through May, 1979 looks like an incredibly hard time for the weather. June/July, 1979 must have been a Godsend in comparison, despite not being overly special in the record books.
-
1
-
-
28 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:
The winter of 1978/9 was indeed less severe than 1962/3 but it actually lasted a lot longer, with heavy snow falling from New Year's Eve 1978 and settling snow falling near my home on the edge of the North Downs on 1st May 1979. It was also the 'Winter of Discontent' which did it for PM James Callaghan and led to Margaret Thatcher becoming PM just as the winter finally relented. So yes, the winter of 1978/9 was an especially rough one to deal with.
Interesting compared to spring 1963 which was actually quite mild. Particularly March and April
-
The Christmas & New Year period of 1923/1924 featured a close call to some extremely cold air but was a case of bad (or good, depending on your viewpoint) luck!
To set the scene, Nov. 1923 was one of the coldest November’s of the 20th century. In comparison, the first half of December was much milder with a strong westerly flow and spells of unsettled weather and high pressure alternating. All change on the 18th as high pressure begins to retrogress and by the 19th we’re in a very cold northerly wind.
A very expansive region of cold air is beginning to build over Scandinavia, but blocking isn’t strong enough to hold and we end up in a chilly northwesterly instead
Christmas Eve finds another short lived northerly burst bringing snow showers and then on Christmas Day, mild air from the Atlantic moves in courtesy of an area of low pressure This brought widespread frontal snowfall. A white Christmas for most.
A closer view shows another round of northerly (NNE) winds bringing in another round of cold air. What’s notable to me is the depth of cold across Scandinavia; minus 15-17 is widespread but there’s a patch of close to minus 30 at 850hpa!
The westerly push is too strong and any cold air is pushed away into the 29th.
New Year’s Eve 1923 is, once again, very close to being cold, but we’re under the influence of mild westerlies
By early January, 1924 the cold pool is still over to our east, seemingly not going anywhere and still quite intense.
It isn’t until the 9th when, bizarrely, an undercutting low ends up dislodging the cold pool and sending it over Scotland and Shetland. This looks like a proper dumping of snow across the Midlands, northern England and Scotland. Impressive how the cold pool is still existent at this point
Finally by the 12th the cold has dissipated and we’re in a very mild southwesterly. Overall Jan. 1924 was actually quite a mild month.
If there hadn’t been such an influence from the Atlantic this could have been a lengthy cold spell for the history books. But alas, it didn’t quite work out that way. Must have been intense across Europe though. Would be frustrating to witness something like this, though at least we did get some snow events from it.
Reports from this spell:
Dec. 1923: Very snowy in the north, 17 days of lying snow at Deerness, 11 at York and around 2-6 in the London area, mostly occurring around and on Christmas Day. Up to 6 inches snow across Yorkshire on Christmas Day and 8 inches in Glasgow, the heaviest fall since 1890. A very active thunderstorm reported on the 19th with vivid lightning display in the Southampton area.
Jan. 1924: Overall a mild month but with a very snosy spell the week ending the 12th. The 9th was the coldest day of the month with most stations not exceeding freezing, and some reports of 25F being the maximum temperature that day. Also on the 9th, the heaviest snowfall in many years recorded across northern England with severe drifts. London had its snowiest spell for many years.
-
3
-
1
-
-
28 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:
Nobody born after Feb. 1963 has lived through a winter like that either!
While not as severe in the records, reports show that 1978/1979 was an especially rough one to deal with.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Yep the first frosts are shown on the 12z GFS
It’s things like that that can hammer down the C.E.T. I’m looking forward to the prospect of some beautiful chilly nights with frost and fog. Winter is coming
-
9
-
-
At this point I’m praying for. 62/63 redux… maybe a little more severe than that though Woild be genuinely interesting to see how the country in today’s day and age as well as the current generation would cope with such a winter. Most people born after Feb. 1991 haven’t really ever lived through a severe winter all the way through to that extreme level, apart from Dec. 2010, but that was only one month.
-
1
-
-
54 minutes ago, jon snow said:
If anything, the Gfs 12z operational has upgraded the heat for Tuesday, I spotted several 29c in there! ….so Shirley 30-31c 87f is possible?…..anyway, following a more unsettled showery spell with thunder during the second half of the week, mid sept looks dry, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm…anyone agree with this prognosis?
That chart for Sept. 14th looks beautiful, though with the wind gently coming in from the North Sea would that bring back the risk of cloud in eastern and southern districts? Also, come mid-September, any high pressure cantered directly over the country will start to bring some cool nights. Perhaps those craving misty mornings with a nip in the air will be satisfied, especially getting those colours on the leaves going!
-
4
-
-
3 hours ago, Don said:
Well, I for one am hoping that September won't be very warm overall, but what will be will be...... And yes, September last year was generally warm until the final week when it turned much cooler, lowering the final CET to near average!
I actually meant to type not buying it, which I’ll have to edit. Haven’t seen latest model output yet though so we’ll see. I’m hoping for 2021s trend of cooler than average months to continue plus I’m ready for the comfort of chilly autumn mornings with mist and fog and the first frosts. Nonetheless, nature will do as she pleases.
-
A very warm entrance to September, but certainly not a guarantee of a warm month. With the hurricane season wreaking havoc with reliability, who really knows what's going to happen. I'm personally buying a very warm September but you never know. Only last year were we looking at a warm September until the second-half of the month destroyed that. Further back, Sep. 1919 is an extreme example of a September of two halves. Hot first-half then extremely cold second-half, even with snow. Get yer snow boots ready, ya never know
-
1
-
-
First genuinely sunny and bright day for what feels like two or more weeks!
-
Of course no one can know but I do think it’s fun having a guess, whether it’s based on random hunches or analogues. Here’s my punt:
Dec. 2021: Very cold, the coldest since 2010, very dull and very dry, with the little precipitation that falls coming as snow. A totally seasonably festive month with a distinct lack of the gross mild stuff.
Jan. 2022: Cooler than average but not as much as December. Much wetter with spells of more Atlantic driven weather in the first half of the month, though giving Scotland/border counties frontal snowfall. Turning colder in the second-half of the month as the blocking patterns start to entrench themselves once again. A wet but cold January.
Feb. 2022: Very cold, the coldest since either 1991 or 1986. Persistent spells of cold and snow from the N/E. Historic blizzards that cripple the country and temperatures dropping below -20. A coldies delight.
Mar. 2022: Cool and exceptionally wet. Similar to 1947, the cold is eroded away by more Atlantic driven weather which causes major snowmelt. Then the rest of the month features low pressure with alternating airmasses.
-
2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
I'm slightly puzzled by what the 'warmest' temperatures relate to, e.g. Lowestoft 20.7 and Ross-on-Wye 22.9 in 1988 and 1989 respectively. Both seem too cool for a mean max. For example f the best was 20.7 in 1988, this would mean either 1988 was a really cool August, which the summary does not suggest, or the selection of stations was a particularly cool lot; and if the highest mean max in August 1989 was 22.9, either the month was obviously a lot cooler than I remember, or again it was a particularly cool group of stations.
Conversely, both figures seem too high for a mean temp, even 20.7 for a mean temp would be unusually hot.
I’m surprised Aug. 1988 was mentioned as average as it had a C.E.T. of 15.2, not desperately cold but certainly cooler than average.
September 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A quick look at the models shows a cooler outlook into the second half of September than what has been seen so far. One to watch out for as that will pummel the CET figure into the 14s or 15s. I’m not too confident of a 15.5-16.0+ finish now but output could change. It’s nice to see the onset of autumn though. Once mid-September arrives I lose interest in hot weather. We’ll see if this trend continues.