LetItSnow!
-
Posts
1,921 -
Joined
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by LetItSnow!
-
-
B87 I know but I meant very hot, though in this crap new climate it’s definitely not the most unlikely thing ever.
-
1
-
-
B87 It is 1935 and it was a really underrated summer. I did a thread on it recently. From about the 18th of June to about the 23rd of August it was very consistent and none of the months come below the 1991-2020 CET average either.
-
B87 None of those years
-
B87 Not 1995 or 2022 and not before 1901. I may do some really old years for fun in my future rounds though!
First clue: It’s a common year.
Some clues from global events: A revolution in the beverage industry and an iconic game goes on sale for the first time.
-
On 19/05/2024 at 12:53, CryoraptorA303 said:
It could've happened in the mid-500s, which hosted the most extreme episode of volcanism in written history, with several major eruptions and many smaller ones over a ~20 year period. It drastically reduced global temps over that time and led to massive famine and disease outbreaks in the temperate world, the most notable being the Justinian plague which may have had several causes.
If I had a genie to give me some wishes as ridiculous as it would be it would be to have synoptic charts going back to the beginning of time. I'd be absolutely fascinated to see what weather patterns were like in different stages of climate history.
-
damianslaw Important note about Scandinavia. Looking at the anomaly maps over Europe, even by the old standards they had a persistent spell of below to exceptionally below average temperatures that persisted from October through to January with anomalies of around 3 to 6 degrees below average, so that shows that in the incredibly unlikely event that the synoptics played ball a severe winter probably colder than 2010 could occur.
-
1
-
-
I won't be entering my guess until the very end of the month but with signs of maybe an Azores-Scandinavian link with high pressure I think there's a good chance June could have a warm start and I think it's unlikely to be cooler than May but does have every chance of reverting to a cooler pattern so it's quite a wild card but I can't see it being much lower than the 14s-15s. Would be quite the irony if we have a cool June even by old standards though and was notably cooler than May. I don't favour this outcome as likely though.
-
22 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
and the people who think we are heading towards a mini ice age have egg on their faces
Yeah, I've noticed the big freeze always seems to be put back a couple of years. Would think at this point by 2030 a warm holiday by the coast in February is far more likely than a national collapse due to freezing cold and snow!
Back to May 2024 and where it will stand in the record books. It's interesting how there isn't a cold counterpart to 1833. In fact the only cold comparison you can make to the anomaly that May 1833 has is October 1740 which has a C.E.T. of 5.3 which is 1.1C colder than second place which is October 1817. A cold counterpart/inverse of this month would probably be a May in the 7s!
May 1833, October 1740 and December 2015 are the only true out there on their own months in terms of being so far past second place, though it looks as though May 1833 will lose that status. Though in a way it will always have it due to the extreme nature of it in such colder times.
-
Next one! The following years are already taken:
1895, 1900, 1908, 1909, 1914, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1940, 1941, 1943, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1957, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018. 2019, 2021, 2023
January was mild, dry and rather dull. Anticyclonic weather prevailed for much of the month. Synoptically, the month was changeable. The first half had a short spell of easterlies before high pressure generally tended to be over and to the west of the country with lots of dry but not overly cold weather though there were some short but sharp northerly incursions.
February was very mild, very wet and very dull. The first-half had an attempt at cold easterlies which grazed the east but was swept away fast. After that the month was very unsettled with frequent low pressure systems and mild, though less so in the north where there was some cold zonality.
March was sunny, mild and very dry. High pressure dominated most of the month and while there was a short period of colder easterlies in the first-half, thereafter the winds switched to a mostly southerly quadrant and it was pleasantly springlike.
April was very wet and quite dull though rather mild. There were some cold northerlies for a time but then low pressure and west and south-westerly winds dominated for long period. There was a much drier, finer end.
May was cool but very dry and sunny. The first-half was quite warm with a lot of easterly winds but there was a spell of colder weather from the north in the second-half with some wintry weather before temperatures recovered and easterlies prevailed.
June was very warm but very wet and quite dull. The first half was Atlantic dominated with frequent low pressure but with quite mild nights. The second-half was very hot with slack easterlies and big thunderstorms.
July was very warm, very dry and very sunny. The first half had some unsettled weather in the far north but was mostly settled from the get go in the south and it quickly turned hot. The second-half had a brief spell of cooler, wetter weather from the Atlantic but high pressure built back and away from the far north, stayed for the rest of the month and it remained warm to hot.
August was very warm, quite dry and quite sunny. The first-half was mostly dominated by a large area of high pressure continuing the hot weather but then there was a cooler thundery breakdown. Most of the second-half remained warm and even very hot at times with some extremely severe thunderstorms but then turned cool and wet towards the end of the month.
September was rather warm and quite sunny but very wet. The first-half was changeable with some wet weather but some very warm south-easterly winds. The second-half was extremely unsettled with frequent areas of low pressure often fuelled by very warm air to our south and there were some extremely severe thunderstorms due to these southerly incursions, though further north it was cooler.
October was wet and dull with average temperatures. The first-half was generally westerly, wet and windy though with some fine and warm weather in the south for a time. The second-half had some intense windstorms and remained wet and unsettled, though there were some ridges from time to time and it was also chilly at times.
November was very wet, mild and quite dull. The first half had frequent low pressure over the country with winds often from a southerly quadrant. There was an attempt at some colder easterlies in the second-half but it came to nothing and the month ended with further zonal, wet and windy weather.
December was quite cold but sunny with normal rainfall. There was further westerlies before an abrupt shift to easterlies. A generally slack east/northeasterly flow remained for some time before milder and wet weather moved in from the south-west and it remained mild, wet and windy for the rest of the year.
-
Summer8906 It is indeed 1969.
-
1
-
-
danm At the risk of being nit-picky, I think there is some embedded feature there appearing on the 26th into the 27th but particularly for more south-western regions that looks really quite nice. Features like fronts can appear or dissapear at quite short range so as stated, not much to be concerned about. Just pointing out the slight risk that it might not be wall-to-wall sunshine and dryness everywhere if they do develop, but even if they do it would probably be short term pain for long term gain as that's a nice ridge by the 28th.
-
2
-
-
Frigid I think a gradual short-lived climb-down of global temperatures and a La Nina will probably open the chances of a relatively cooler and maybe drier period around 2025-2027. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if this period throws us a more memorable winter or cooler summer than we've been used to, though I certainly don't expect it to be historically significant that's for sure!
-
1
-
-
Addicks Fan 1981 If you have slack pressure then it can be conducive to showers depending on the ingredients of the day. I'm not sure the position of the jet stream matters. 6 days away so not worth worrying about too much.
-
3
-
-
1952 has the strange versatility of a very warm spring but a very cold autumn. From memory the first half of the summer was really decent as well. One of those years where everything falls apart in the second-half.
-
30 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Big improvement from the GFS 12Z for Sunday compared to yesterday's disappointing run. The jet stream seems more northerly tracking on this chart compared to yesterday's run.
That chart looks rather slack so I wonder if there'd be some beefy, if not isolated, slow moving showers with that type of set-up.
-
I knew I was placing a safe bet going for a warm May, but I did not know I'd potentially end up about degree colder than the outcome!
That means in the past year we've seen the 5th warmest June, warmest September, 2nd warmest February, 10th warmest March and now all but certainly the 2nd warmest May. Fascinating if not rather horrifying times.
-
2
-
1
-
-
Onto my next one. The following years have already been done:
1895, 1900, 1908, 1909, 1914, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1940, 1941, 1943, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1957, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018. 2019, 2021, 2023
January was very mild, very dull and quite wet. The first-half had some cold weather with a fair bit of blocking over Greenland, but it failed to produce much in the way of wintry weather, then the second-half was mostly south-westerly and very mild at times with low pressure dominating.
February was cold and quite "wet" with average sunshine. The first-half was bitterly cold and sometimes windy with winds frequent from the north and north-east. The second-half was still cold but less so with more in the way of easterlies.
March was cold, wet and dull. The first-half had some anticyclonic weather for a time before low pressure from the south-west encroached and gave a spell of unsettled weather with winds often from the south-east. The second-half was drier with a lot of easterlies.
April was rather cool but sunny with average rainfall. The first-half was changeable but warm at times whereas the second-half was frequently low pressure dominated and cool.
May was slightly cooler than average, very wet, very dull and thundery. The entire month was low pressure dominated with the first-half generally being westerly but with a plume of quite hot air from the south. The second-half was more northerly and easterly.
June was very sunny and rather dry but rather cool. The first-half was mostly high pressure dominated with warm days and fresh nights but there was a short spell of severe thunderstorms. The second-half was generally low pressure dominated and westerly.
July was warm, sunny and slightly drier than average. It was changeable but pressure was always high in the south even in the more westerly phases of the month. The first-half was generally very warm apart from a short cool spell then hot. The second-half was warm all the way through but rather unsettled in the far north and with some severe thunderstorms.
August was rather warm but also rather dull with average rainfall. The first-half was hot and quite thundery with winds often from the south and south-east. The second-half was cooler with winds generally from the north and west but pressure generally remained quite high so no great washouts.
September was rather warmer than average, dry but also dull. The first-half was changeable with some dry, warm and fine weather but also a spell of unsettled weather. The second-half had generally high pressure in the south with a lot of south-westerly winds and more unsettled in the north with a spell of very windy weather. Despite it being a mild month there was a chilly end.
October was warm and dry with fairly average sunshine. The first-half had generally high pressure away from the north-west with winds from a southerly quadrant and some exceptionally warm days. The second-half was basically the same but with a more westerly axis than southerly but still with some very warm days under high pressure.
November was very wet and rather chilly but sunny. The first-half was generally unsettled, wet and windy with some further exceptionally warm temperatures but gradually become more seasonable as winds switched to a more north-westerly direction. The second-half was quite northerly with a fairly cold spell later on.
December was quite cold and dull with average rainfall. The first-half was changeable with generally westerly and north-westerly winds. The second-half was also changeable but becoming easterly with some quite cold air making its way over.
-
Weather Enthusiast91 Going to vote 1940.
-
1
-
-
Impressively, still the 9th hottest summer for the UK as a whole despite being 125 years ago.
-
Some nominations from my lifetime based on preferences
2011: The cool summer I liked and I had some cracking storms on the 28th of June but otherwise the seasons were all out of whack. Just a thoroughly odd year.
2014: I love the rain but the winter took the proverbial. Persistent nothingness, though I liked the summer having no oppresive heat so it wasn't the entire worst.
2019: This year kinda stunk. The winter was a disgrace, the spring was far too warm apart from heavy snow I saw falling on the 13th of April and 4th of May(!). The summer was horrifically humid and crap and has come to be the starting point for what we are seeing become the norm. I did like the cold autumn but December ruined everything.
2023: Malicious. It wasn't the rain that bothered me but the persistently naff synoptics that dominated particularly the second-half of the year. Honestly it feels more like a year from a random generator. September to current has just been awful in terms of the winter being disgustingly mild more than anything. If a same very wet low pressure dominated period had occured but on a southerly tracking jet and regular cold spells and snow (something like January 1979 or December 1981) then I'd be OK with it, but instead just more malevolently AGW synoptics. That also applies for 2024 so far as well.
-
2
-
-
I remember Atlantic 252 Summer8906 My attempts to make it less standout failed ! Correct. It’s 2023. In terms of the anomalies, I’m going by the averages of the latest 30 year average thanks to Roger’s excellent CET data page. By 1991-2020 averages April, July, August and November were colder than normal even if some barely.
-
Another one in the can. Onto my next one. Usual rules apply. These are the years that have already been done.
1900, 1908, 1909, 1914, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1941, 1943, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1957, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018
January had near normal temperatures and rainfall but was sunny. It was quite zonal in the first half so wet and windy but the second-half was more anticyclonic with some sharp frosts.
February was dry, mild and sunny. High pressure dominated the entire month away from the far north and while it was generally a mild pattern in the first-half it became rather colder later.
March was very wet and very dull but with near-normal temperatures. It was unsettled all the way through but there was some cold and snow in the first-half. The second-half was generally unexceptionally mild, wet and windy.
April was a little colder and wetter than average with near-normal sunshine. The entire month was changeable but the first half was quite westerly and wet and windy at times whereas the second-half had more in the way of easterlies.
May was rather warm, dry and sunny though not everywhere. There was some unsettled weather early on and some thunderstorms but then it became mostly high pressure dominated.
June was very warm, sunny and dry, though some places were wet due to storms. The first half was very easterly and mostly dry but the second-half was a little less settled but still had some hot weather.
July was very wet, cool and dull. Low pressure dominated the entire month and winds were often from the west or north-west.
August was slightly cooler and duller than average with near-normal rainfall. There was some very cool and unsettled weather in the first-half before a generally warmer but not overly settled second-half though it returned to cool weather towards month's end.
September was warm and sunny but rather wet. The first-half had some quite hot weather before a much more unsettled, westerly second-half but still warm at times.
October was mild, very wet and quite dull. The first half had some fine and warm conditions before deteriorating into a very wet and rather cool second-half.
November was slightly colder than average and quite wet but fairly sunny. The first-half was zonal, very westerly and stormy at times. The second-half remained unsettled but less so and featured some quite cold conditions.
December was very mild, very wet and very dull. There was a fairly non-descript first-half with general westerlies but then a much more zonal second-half with some very mild weather at times.
The year was warmer and wetter than average with average sunshine.
-
7 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
To be blunt - I don't think that thinking this way
Well yeah, that's why I said it's ridiculous. It's really for fun. I don't think there's anything to it but if you have a really hot June last last year you prrrooobably are unlikely to find another one the next year. But the Aprils of the 1940s didn't follow any logic either, or the run mild Februaries since 2016 that even in a warming world are statistically unusual.
-
1
-
-
WYorksWeather Hmm, anything's possible. I actually will retract any statement since I have no idea. You definitely can have two stinker Julys in a row but two very hot Junes would be unlikely. August is a wildcard. I'm trying to use odds to forecast as well which is a ridiculous idea but since last August was distinctly average and the previous one was very hot, it's probably more likely to be an average or even cool month - against the 1991-2020 average at least. Another very hot August may be unlikely, but it happened in 1995 and 1997 with 1996 being the distinctly average one. So maybe another hot August isn't entirely unlikely.
General summer chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
B87 They are very warm months but in terms of the CET they pale a little in comparison to the Junes with a CET in the 17s and 18s. One of the latter is overdue this century, probably before 2040. I don’t even really have a point anymore, it’ll probably be a warm month on some level.