LetItSnow!
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Posts posted by LetItSnow!
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Weather Enthusiast91 Is that 1970?
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Squally77 Correct!
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On 01/04/2024 at 19:14, Earthshine said:
Haha would you look at that. Just need a 14°C+ May now I would say
You've predicted June and September last year and now you've (potentially) manifested an extremely warm May.
Do you know something we don't? 
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Tiniest bit of fluff moving NE-wards between Swindon and Amesbury. Wonder if thats an attempt at a cell or just a bit of nothing.
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Hail in Newport
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Cardiff looks like they're about to be walloped
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Rolling C.E.T. for May 2023-April 2024 roughly at 11.27C now (just an average of the month's C.E.T.s and not the daily means).
With May almost guaranteed to be at least very warm this will rise. A very warm May of 13.5 (a lower end projection remarkably) would raise it to 11.39C and 14.5C would raise it to 11.48C. Something equal to May 1833 would raise it to 11.53C. The warmest 12 month period not restricted to a calender year is 11.66C from May 2006 to April 2007.
The amount of above average temperature anomalies we've seen since June 2021 and particularly since June 2023 is only matched by this period in terms of intensity yet has gone on far longer. It's actually impressive the old record has lasted so long. It shows that a calendar year in the 11.5-12.0C range is no longer fiction and a possible reality soon.
Many years ago a poster spoke of our changing weather being in about 4 stages or something like that. From memory/a little bit of my own interpretation is that 2006/2007 was a temporary shift into the 4th stage before we went back into the 2nd stage for about six years after that and then generally stayed stable in the third stage throughout the rest of the 2010s and early 2020s. This makes sense to me as apart from some colder blips in the early '90s and the late '00s/early '10s, the annual C.E.T. generally remained quite stable from 1989 to 2021. To me it seems that shift back into the 4th stage has begun and whether it's a permanent switch or not, who knows. Regardless, if we have three 11C years in a row, that's just beyond remarkable and plain concerning. Assuming we have a May around the 14C mark, even if every other month of the year was around the 1991-2020 average we'd still have a finish around 10.8-10.9C.
The times sure are a-changin'.
Forgive me if off topic but a calendar year with the same ranks as each month from May 2006-April 2007 would look like this. Not too crazy looking now.
5.2 - 6.4 - 9.6 - 8.7 - 14.2 - 17.1 - 18.0 - 17.2 - 16.3 - 11.0 - 7.9 - 8.8 - 11.70C
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WYorksWeather You'd think they'd fix the issue by now... This problem existed when I first started avidly browsing weather models in 2014-2015.
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SunSean That's the fun part about the world, preferences, everyone's got some even if they are atypical. I certainly am happy for the sun starved people liek yourself. I'm just waiting for things to go boom but I don't think I'm in luck this time but we'll see!
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In Absence of True Seasons Well, a couple of days of sunshine are nice of course but I never really got the weeks of endless anticyclonic weather that some people (validly) crave. Exceedingly boring weather. My only personal gripe since July is the abhorrent mildness really that killed the winter months. Dullness can annoy me too, if it goes on for ridiculous amounts of time. But generally I haven't been bothered with the rain aspect. But bear in mind I live in an urban setting and don't have to deal with flooded fields and such. I did for the first 20 years of my life though so it's not as though I don't know what that's like. I'd find a summer like 1976 or 1995 breathtakingly boring and unpleasant, not even just for heat.
I may be a vampire because sunshine genuinely doesn't really improve my mood that much, certainly less than it used to. But it is nice.
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The skies have a very pre-thundery look to them here despite not being in danger zone today.
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Next one.
The winter was stormy and wet though had unexceptional temperatures overall. January was very snowy in the north but not so much further south. The spring was quite cold overall, particularly in March and May. April was very dry and sunny however. May was wet in the south but very dry and fine in the north. The summer was quite good with a decent June and July but a hot August. After this it was generally wet and mild for the rest of the year.
The year was rather warm and quite sunny but slightly wetter than average.
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WYorksWeather That was definitely the case for July 2023. If that pattern had occurred just a couple years earlier it would have been cooler I think. If that pattern had occurred in 2015 in the peak of the cold blob era then it would have been quite chilly.
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2024 marching into record territory by the looks of it… Well might as well go for a run at 1st or 2nd warmest May in such a warm spring/start to the year.
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I hope the lower pressure next week brings some thunderstorms. I’ve actually realised as bonkers this may sound to some but sunshine is one of my lesser favourite weather types. I find it boring when it lasts too long. I find rain and snow more pleasant. I’ve definitely become a thunderstorm appreciater later in life too.
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On 04/04/2024 at 20:05, Summer8906 said:
Reminds me of the 1695, 1795, 1895 sequence of cold winters
Not quite the same but it sort of continued as December 1995 did see the equal lowest UK temperature on record, matching that of 1895.
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B87 In the C.E.T it only ranks 82nd coldest and has an anomaly of only about a degree so in the scale of things it's a cool one but not exceptionally so. An exceptionally cold September happened 5 years earlier though with a C.E.T. of 10.7(!!!).
Yes, it was 1973. It was actually quite non-descript apart from rainfall so quite hard to write about.
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Summer8906 If you lived in the north then you would have basically missed out on both heatwaves. August 2020 heat didn't reach Scotland/the far north but it did bring a spell of humid sunshine in the mid 20s. After that the very wet and dull weatther that dominated July continued. In fact the month wasn't even warm in the far north. Very much a month that varied greatly on location. For Scotland and the far north of England the summer of 2020 was distinctly cold, wet and dull and I imagine would rank alongside some of the more widely known poor ones. I know because I was there!
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B87 Ah, okay. The winter wasn't as wet as I thought it was. I was confusing it with the winter of 1936/1937 which was very wet. Also September 1957 isn't exceptionally cold but it is a chilly one. Wow O'm doing really good at this game.
Here's my next one.
The winter was dry and mild. February was quite a north-westerly month and there was a fairly potent cold spell mid-month. The spring was changeable with a very dry March but more unsettled in April and May. There was an exceptionally cold reading late in April. The summer was mixed with a decent June which had an exceptionally wet day on the 19th but was otherwise unremarkable. July was quite poor but August was decent and though by today's standards it would be considered average it was the warmest for quite some time. The autumn was very dry with a warm and fine September with some severe thunderstorms with exceptional rainfall totals, but a cold October and chilly November. December started cold but ended up rather mild but still was dry.
The year had near-normal temperatures and sunshine but was very dry.
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B87 This one is stumping me a bit actually. Up until August it sounds like 1957 but the rest doesn't match. Any clues?
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B87 1988! Correct
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B87 nope not 1974. first one that people automatically haven’t got interestingly
Just for fun: Guess the year
in Historic Weather
Posted
Next one.
The winter was mild with near-normal rainfall. January was very dry with both notably mild and cold spells but February was generally mild and very wet but sunny.
The spring was fairly mild and dry. March was warm and dry with an early warm spell. April was cool and wet with a notable snow storm. May was a very average month but it featured some exceptional thunderstorms which were tornadic.
The summer started well but turned poor. June was hot, sunny and rather dry with an extreme hot spell but July and August were very wet and quite cool though not overly dull.
The rest of the year was quite cold with varying rainfall. September was cool, wet and dull, October was very dry but quite chilly, November was quite cold but very wet again and December was very cold and snowy.