LetItSnow!
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Scorcher To be fair, Scorcher, you do the exact same thing just from the other side of the spectrum. Best focus on the models rather than comment on other people's take on the models.
Back to the model output. I haven't done a model rundown in a few days so might as well. I'll be looking at day 5 and day 10 on the models.
Starting with the GFS. It wants to keep pressure generally weak before developing a more substantial low pressure system around the 22nd/23rd which could be quite a wet spell. However by day 10 signs of a build back of pressure. So not an onslaught but more a continuation of May 2024's changeable nature.
Onto the ECM. It's similarly developing low pressure by the 21st and making it into a notable feature into the 22nd/23rd with the low parked over the country. This one does also show the risk of a wet spell in about a week's time and perhaps quite cool where rain lingers, but details like that aren't to be focused on a week away. It's also similar to the GFS in that after a couple days of low pressure, high pressure begins nosing in from the north so it also wants to turn dryer by day 10. A slight bit differently with a mid-Atlantic high, but these are warm northerlies with pockets of +10C air even. Again, details like orientation of the high and uppers are irrelevant now but the GFS and ECM are in agreement for the basic pattern for the next ten days.
Now the UKMO. We can't go to day 10 with this so I'll show the very furthest it can go, Wednesday the 22nd. It's also developing weaker pressure but to a lesser extent than the aforementioned models and perhaps a bit further south-east, but the risk for a wet spell is still there. How this would go on, I'm not sure.
Now the GEM. The GEM is completely different to the others as it doesn't have a strong Scandinavian high and it doesn't generate a low pressure system over the UK. Instead the low in the Atlantic helps to fuel the Azores high to link with the Scandi ridge. This quickly builds heights from the south and turns us very warm and dry away from the far north. This brings uppers of 12C+ over the UK so a serious chance with this we'd be looking at 30C and maybe threatening the May 1833 CET record. Since this is so different to the other models, I'm inclined to discard it, but you never know - it could all flip and maybe a hot spell is lurking.
My overall thoughts...
I think that we may see an unsettled spell into next week with a risk of further spells of heavy rain in places, but I don't think it looks to be a very long-lived affair as there are signs that after a couple days we may see high pressure and warmer, drier weather return. Indeed May 2024 is very much turning out to be a rinse and repeat type month.
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Interesting temperature anomaly map so far for the month. I don't know if this is relative to the monthly average up to the 15th or the full month, but interesting to see the anomalies highest across Scotland. Almost +6C anomalies in places!
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Scorcher That's what I said in the message basically. Looking at it more clearly for the UK the first half did the heavy lifitng. September and November were sunny but then rest of the second half of the year was dull.
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Scorcher I genuinely think the lack of sunshine has also been notable because we've really become accustomed to sunny years. Absolutely nothing to suggest the dull theme will definitely continue but if it did it and 2024 was to be a dull year, it would be the first for the UK since 2002. Our very dull spell since last year is very anomalous in the past 30 years. It's perhaps the most underlooked but one of the most interesting and drastic changes to our climate alongside temperature.
Back to present time and I can't help but feel like it's not out of the question some crazy run will end up verifying and May 1833's record will be kissed goodbye.
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Weather Enthusiast91 That'll be 1920 I think!
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What about the anti-1912? 1912 is the dullest year on record so I imagine this would, for many, be a corker.
CBA with the anomaly maps this time.
January: A dry and very sunny month with frequent northwesterlies. I imagine quite a lot of cold zonality but often dry, especially in the south.
CET: 3.5 (-0.4) / EWP: 53.8mm (66%) / Sunshine: 131%
February: A mild and wet start with balmy south-westerly winds but quickly turning drier and colder. Frequent northerlies and north-easterlies. "Wet" in the south-east but drier elsewhere. Very sunny.
CET: 2.5 (-1.6) / EWP: 60.9mm (93%) / Sunshine: 121%
March: A very cold but extremely dry and rather sunny month. A near permanent anticyclone all month with winds often from an easterly or north-easterly direction. I imagine it would be duller further south though with occasional snow grains.
CET: 4.5 (-1.3) / EWP: 15.8mm (26%) / Sunshine: 110%
April: Extremely wet, rather cool and very dull. Frequent easterlies in the first half before becoming more westerly and milder later. The wettest April on record for the south-east.
CET: 7.2 (-0.9) / EWP: 142.4mm (241%) / Sunshine: 80%
May: Near-normal rainfall and temperatures but sunny.
CET: 11.0 (-0.4) / EWP: 68.0mm (106%) / Sunshine: 116%
June: Warm, very dry and very sunny. Very warm first half with a slightly more changeable second half with some northerlies but very little in the way of rain. Probably a month with very warm days but near normal/rather cool minima.
CET: 14.8 (+0.6) / EWP: 22.2mm (33%) / Sunshine: 134%
July: On the warm side and sunny but rather changeable. A hot and humid start then thundery for a time before altnernating spells of high pressure and low pressure but without any long, dull spells. High pressure and hot easterlies returning by month's end.
CET: 16.6 (+0.5) / EWP: 61.8mm (78%) / Sunshine: 125%
August: The hottest, driest and sunniest August on record. Virtually rainless almost everywhere apart from some isolated storms on the 11th, 22nd and 31st. Permanent baking hot winds from the south and east. London failed to record a maxima lower than 22C all month.
CET: 19.5 (+3.7) / EWP: 8.3mm (10%) / Sunshine: 169%
September: Rather warm and sunny but very wet. Remaining very warm in the first-half but much cooler with frequent north-westerlies in the second half. Severe thunderstorms as low pressure finally encroaches from the south-west on the 2nd, breaking the drought, then dry and hot for another couple of days before low presure takes over by the 7th though remaining humid with winds from the south/south-west until the 12th. Then cool to very cool for the remainer of the month with frequent westerlies/northwesterlies.
CET: 14.7 (+1.2) / EWP: 110.7mm (137%) / Sunshine: 106%
October: A very changeable month with near-normal stats masking some large variations. Generally unsettled in the first half, starting mild, then a colder spell from the north mid-month, but then becoming anticyclonic in the second half with pleasant days but cool nights.
CET: 10.1 (-0.1) / EWP: 95.6mm (100%) / Sunshine: 95%
November: Extremely sunny, the sunniest November on record, but rather wet. Average temperatures.
CET: 6.5 (+0.1) / EWP: 98.7mm (106%) / Sunshine: 137%
December: After the sunniest November, the sunniest December. Cold with some severe snowfall over the south-west.
CET: 1.9 (-2.6) / EWP: 52.4mm (59%) / Sunshine: 171%
Annual:
CET: 9.4 (-0.1C) / EWP: 790.6mm (86%) / Sunshine: 124%
Would rank 35th driest year and beat 2003 as sunniest.
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Summer8906 Correct
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Also forgot to mention 25 July 2021 which brought severe storms to this area and flooded my partner's workplace. They were widespread across London and did a lot of damage.
Thunderstorms cause flash flooding in London, submerging roads and some train stations | CNN
EDITION.CNN.COM
Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding across London on Sunday afternoon, sparking major transport delays.28 June 2012 was a big one in the north but a year before on 28 June 2011 there were very big storms in the south-east. We had three ones in a row that wrecked through the area. Locally someone had their house struck with lightning. I remember the very cool air and low cloud introduced behind the the storms.
Those storms on 7 August 2008 ring a bell as to the date of that one I saw as a kid and the weather pattern makes sense with seeing the storms move southward so I feel that's when it was.
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Thought I'd posted in here already but must have done it on another thread.
Worst storm I've ever seen in my life so far is definitely June 25, 2016. I lived in New Ash Green in NW Kent at the time. While most places (including us) got a major walloping on the night of the 22nd/23rd, we got a far stronger hit on the 25th.
Up to that point we'd been a magnet to the various heavy showers and thunderstorms throughout that very wet June. Already the month was an absolute swamp in terms of soil moisture. I remember some time around 1-3PM having walked to the local shop with the clouds looking menacing overhead but at that point nothing was on the radar. I vaguely can remember seeing mammatus clouds. The atmosphere was very still. Just coming back in the door raindrops began falling, very thick blobs. That was the start of a cell building directly over my house and it would stay there for about an hour or two.
Peak rainfall was definitely somewhere over 250mm/hr and with large hail. The area became a complete flash flood very quick with the main road and even paths becoming a a torrent like river flowing up to my front door. There was some large hail too which came down with such a force it stripped leaves off of trees. It looked like autumn afterwards with leaves all over the place and holes in leaves. The temperature dropped to 7C during the storm as well. There was some terrific overhead lightning and house-shaking thunder too. The hail would lay for the rest of the day. That lasted somewhere around an hour or two as the storm was not only slow moving but kept back-building. I wish I had had proper recording instruments and not a cheap little inadequate weather stations.
The period from May 31 to June 25 that year was unprecedently wet locally and wouldn't surprise me if well over 100-200mm was recorded.
Other examples would be August 9, 2017. Similar intensity and length in rainfall as the previous event but no hail from what I remember. This one was more a large mass of rain than a cell but packed a punch. The period from mid-July to early September was abnormally thundery where I lived despite being cool with many severe thunderstorms in many days in late-July and beyond, as was my next entry...
September 1, 2017, I did a thread about this one a while back. This was completely unforecast and had tornadic elements, I'm sure of it.
This one may surprise some but July 19 or 20, 2019 saw an extreme storm where I was staying in Maidstone. This one was more notable for its rainfall with absolute torrents of rainfall creating a flash flood similar to 2016 but not quite as intense. Still, flood waters were rushing up to the front door.
A vigorous squall line ravaged through the Islington area on October 23, 2022. I think it was the combination of an unusually warm continent and airmass and a deep low. It didn't last as long as the others but packed a punch only similar to 2016. The wind speeds on this one were insane and I'm surprised the trees behind my house didn't snap over. Straight-line winds and absolutely torrential rain created this vicious wall of water that ravaged through like a hurricane. There was thunder and lightning too.
Further back into my childhood (in NW Kent) I seem to remember a storm in 2008, for some reason my brain thinks it was August but I don't know why. The storm was actually to the north and west indicating it wasn't from a plume but a westerly or northerly flow? It had an awe inspiring (and to me at the time terrifying) black cloudscape that descended south/eastwards and swallowed the area in the evening. It was definitely summer and I don't remember it being hot. I also remember it rumbling on into the night but this may have been a seperate storm. Strange considering it wasn't a heat related storm, though all the biggest storms in my life have been from cool set-ups so not actually that surprising. Any dates for this would be awesome.
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Summer8906 Before getting on with my next entry, I have to say how January 1918 looks like many a failed cold spell nowadays. Would have been a nail-biting spell if it happened in the forums now. Not entirely dissimilar to January 2024.
Now onto my next entry... Randomiser button being pressed.
January was an unusual combination of being quite cold but also wet and stormy but also rather sunny.
February continued and amplified the wet theme but it became much milder. It was an unusually mild February for much of the continent and the UK tapped into that, though the far north was actually rather cold. Rather dull.
March was also abnormally mild across much of Europe but slightly less so for the UK, though it was mild. Some very warm weather in the first-half but then becoming wet and windy but with some ridges at times so a wet month but not extremely so. Colder later. Very dull.
April was cool but rather dry and sunny. The first-half was cold with quite a lot of northerlies but the second half was more changeable with more in the way of westerlies and milder.
May was quite cool but very sunny and rather dry. It was particualrly a fine month in the north and west.
June was very cool, quite wet and rather dull. The first half was particularly low pressure dominated, wet and windy. A near-miss plume of very hot air around mid-month that lead to some big thunderstorms.
July was very dry and sunny but not overly warm. It was cool in the south but quite warm in the north. The first half was anticyclonic but the second half was more changeable but rainfall amounts were small and nights were chilly at times.
August was a very wet month for most and very thundery but quite cool.
September was cool, dull and dry. While it was only rather cool here it was quite a cold one across much of Europe.
October started unsettled with thunderstorms and generally wet and windy conditions but became drier. Generally a warm and dry month with some very warm weather in the second-half of the month.
November had about average temperatures but was wet though very sunny. The first half was very mild at times and stormy but the second-half was much colder with a lot of northerlies.
December had a near-miss cold spell in the first-half then generally became very mild but changeable. A mild, rather wet and dull month.
Overall the year was slightly cooler, wetter but sunnier than average.
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This remarkable spring still holds the title of the warmest spring on record by maxima, 0.6C higher than spring 2020. Overall it still ranks within the top 3 on mean temperature, though will be getting pushed down to 4th by this current spring. However, for many I’m sure they’d say that spring 2024 has nothing on spring 1893 and 1893 is how you properly do a warm spring.
I’d be interested in comparing it to the spring of 2020. Both had changeable and warm summers that followed with big storms and both cooled off into the autumn, though 1893 far more so.
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Weather-history Ding ding! You’ve got it.
I can only surmise that July and September of 1918 weren’t horrifically dull because the unsettled weather often had a northerly element to it rather than the tropical maritime air that bathes wet months a lot now.
Will get to my next entry in a bit.
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SunSean That’s what happens when high pressure dominates in spring. It’s second warmest for maxima. Interesting that upon checking, the warmest spring on record by daytime temperature is still 1893 and by a 0.6C margin. Those chillier nights under high pressure stopped 2020 from ranking the very highest.
Does feel like we’ve entered that stage now where the same weather patterns don’t really bring the same weather. I wonder if sea temperatures around us are aiding mild nights and stopping extensive fog and low cloud in the east. The uppers and even the pattern aren’t remarkable but I feel the surface is reacting so differently.
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Not 1922 or 1944.
Another clue for the weather buffs out there. This year had a brutal historic winter across the pond.
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You’re both incorrect with your guesses. It’s fun that it’s a harder one!
Some clues.
It’s pre-1948, yes.
Many hardships globally which make this probably stand alongside the worst years in at least modern history.
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Weather-history Absolutely a part of it, but hasn’t there been a detected decrease in thundery activity in the past 20 years anyway? I think it was actually noted and not just a “feels like thing”. There’s definitely a reason why but I’m stumped.
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Next one!
January was mostly cold–even bitterly cold–with some snowy spells, but the cold broke down rather spectacularly in the second-half and then it became extremely mild, so much so the month wasn't that cold.
February was very mild and very dull but rather dry with a bloated Azores high/Bartlett shielding much of the sound from the rain.
March was synoptically changeable but very dry and rather sunny with average temperatures. There was an impressive warm spell for a time in the second-half.
April was a cold, easterly month with near-normal rainfall but quite wet in the south.
May was warm but not especially dry or sunny. The second-half was particularly hot with 30°C reached but there were also a great deal of thunderstorms, some of which produced notable hail.
June was very sunny and very dry but not overly warm, particularly by night.
July began and ended warm, dry and fine but had a long spell of cold, wet and windy weather inbetween so overall it was a cool and wet month, though oddly it was sunny too.
August had an unsettled first week and very end, but was generally high pressure dominated for the most part, so rather dry, slightly on the warm side but also rather dull. There was a brief plume of very hot air (20C line grazed the south coast) in the second-half which gave a very hot day in the south.
September was cold and very wet yet somehow slightly sunnier than average.
October began with further unsettled and this time quite mild weather but eventually became anticyclonic. It was fairly dry but very dull and rather chilly.
November was briefly unsettled and mild but then became an anticyclonic month. Rather chilly but sunny and dry. The anticyclone gave way to rather more unsettled weather at month's end.
December was balmy, dull and wet with very little in the way of wintry weather.
The year had average temperatures, was slightly sunnier than average and was rather wet.
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It may be wrong but it seems to be that thunderstorms seems to be of much more greater intensity and frequency in colder times compared to today. I don't think this is the case worldwide so why here it's a mystery. These look to be awesome storms, particularly 1/8/1846. The same summer that produced the hottest ever June so clearly a notable one.
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Summer8906 Well just like getting an idea for it and seeing if the CETs vaguely go along. Not like looking at events or synoptics.
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Summer8906 Maybe I'm cheating but after looking at some of the months I was looking at data that fits. Give the clues if you feel you need them. If I hadn't looked I may not have got it.
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4 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
Anyway, another from me, and this time a considerably earlier year than my first three
1951?
Will concoct my next one.
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Summer8906 1914 is correct! 1914 has the most lightning deaths in a year in the UK. 14 spookily. Probably one of the more thundery years we’ve had. It was also of course the start of WWI. September 1914 still ranks within the sunniest Septembers ever, like top 5 for the UK I think.
The synoptics for February 1914 not that far off of February 2024. Fitting that the latter was about a degree warmer highlighting the change in the world.
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Here’s some more clues.
This year was unusually deadly for weather in the UK.
That aside, it was not a great time to be alive.
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Summer8906 Sorry if that’s confusing. There was unsettled weather during the last week but high pressure built in by about the 27th and became strong by months end and into September.
However, 1906 is incorrect.
Here’s my first vague clue. It’s pre-1950.
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Just for fun: Guess the year
in Historic Weather
Posted
Weather Enthusiast91 Yes I'm thinking 1972 as well.
Will enter my next one in a bit.