LetItSnow!
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B87 I’m now using the opposite ranking within the CET and the UKP. The sunshine totals though are just a simple opposite though sometimes with slight modification. Historically the summer of 2011 is not overly cool. Indeed many an old 30 year average August 2011 would have been slightly warmer than average. I was looking at Met Office anomaly maps for the sunshine as well as Starlings Roost
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B87 Not 1999. That’s already been done.
My clue for the night. It’s pre-1950.
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B87 Not 1997
Will have to look at that data. I do remember that in terms of maxima the summer of 1899 is still amongst the hottest but the minima held it back a bit.
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29 minutes ago, Rain All Night said:
but I've not had the best day, and this is cathartic
Hope that tomorrow is a much better day for you!
Does look like a settled end to May could be on the cards.
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Next one. Hopefully no-one's done it first. There needs to be like a list of years crossed off that have already been done. I've already done 1900, 1914, 1918, 1967, 1977, 1988, 2002 and 2017 off the top of my head so you can automatically discount those for my next one.
Reminder that my reference point of average will be for the the 30 year mean applicable for that time. Here we go!
January was very wet, quite dull and rather mild. The first-half had some cold weather but the second-half was Atlantic dominated, wet and often stormy.
February was very mild, quite dry and fairly sunny, very sunny in the north. There was some further wet and windy weather in the first half but then high pressure generally dominated most of the second-half with no rain at all in some places.
March was mild, sunny and very dry. High pressure dominated most of the month with a total drought in places, then ending rather westerly. There were a few colder winds here and there but most of the month was mild.
April was warm and dry but strangely not that settled or sunny. It was driest in the south but rather wet in the north-west. It was a very south-westerly month.
May was very changeable, overall being wet but sunny with average temperatures. There was some wet and windy weather in the first half then it turned hot and fine for a while before returning to rather wet conditions for the final 10 days or so.
June was overall rather dry but with average temperatures and sunshine. It began unsettled, then turned warm and dry for a time before turning unsettled again but ended fine and warm again.
July was on the warm side, quite dry and very sunny. It began settled and warm the turned unsettled, cool and windy for a time before high pressure dominated the second half. The month had a very hot end with the 20C line flirting with the English Channel. There were some severe thunderstorms.
August was rather on the warm side again but this time dull. Rainfall was near normal. The month had an unsettled first-half with a short-lived hot spell in the second-half that saw the 20C line flirt with the south coast once again, but it then turned unsettled again. Despite frequent lows passing through, pressure remained fairly high in the south explaining why the month wasn't as wet as it may appear.
September was bang on average for all three measures but this hid a month of two halves. Generally warm in the first half but unsettled with a thundery spell from low pressure to the south-west. Meanwhile the second half was cooler with winds frequently from the north-west and more attempts at ridging.
October was mild, rather dry and rather dull. It began mild, wet and windy before high pressure and east/southeasterly winds dominated for a time. Then mild and stormy for a time before the high pressure to the east resumed to end the month.
November was dry with average temperatures and sunshine. High pressure dominated early on and quite mild too but then turning cold from the north mid-month, then milder and stormier at times in the final third.
December was dry and quite chilly with near-normal sunshine totals. Most of the first-half had very little weather at all with high pressure dominating with rather mild uppers and weak easterlies but cold at the surface. Stormy for a time in the run-up to Christmas before a return to higher pressure but not overly cold.
The year was warm, rather sunny and very dry.
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Summer of 95 Correct! I was just about to type out some clues as well.
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A slight addition to the previous message as now a finish in the 14s looks not an impossible task. Assuming a finish of 14.5, if the summer were only 1C above the 1991-2020 average and then the rest of the year "average", it would still produce a finish of between 11.0-11.3C. Given the warmth in the atmosphere a very warm summer can't be ruled out. 10.7-10.9C would be the ballpark if the rest of the year turned out average which is very unlikely. Usually I'm not one for hyperbole but unless a major pattern flip changes, I think we're staring down the barrel at the warmest year on record, an incredible third year in a row at 11C.
In fact, if the rest of the year stays warm and averages around just 1C above normal then we'd possibly be looking at around 11.4-11.7C. I'm not even convinced that's the most unlikely outcome since many months since September have been 1-2C above average even by the 1991-2020 average. Crazy times. Our climate at the moment is about as extreme as the 1690s in terms of anomaly, just the opposite.
@CryoraptorA303It's a bit grim, innit.
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Summer8906 Feel free to enter if no one's come in in the next 30-60 minutes or even have a go at another one yourself! I'm gonna be very sad when we run out of years... will have to invent a new game.
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reef What I do sometimes is I take the anomalies of the 1991-2020 average and put them onto the colder 1901-2000 mean to see roughly what the same synoptics are "supposed" to bring, though even this isn't the most helpful as we're not seeing just a case of the same weather patterns that we used to but milder but ever since 1988, particularly the colder half of the year, the synoptics have just changed so drastically. Perhaps summer is the least changed, instead it's the uppers from the south and like you said, summers that would have been 15-15.5 are now a degree or so warmer. In a way I think the summers are the season that's changed the least.
Last year's summer if it had happened 50-100 years ago instead
16.5 15.3 15.6 - 15.73
Still warm but sub 16C and similar to summers to summers like 1950, 1960 and 1970 (strange pattern).
More noticable if you did the same for 2015.
13.4 15.2 15.3 - 14.63C - Cooler than 1993 funnily enough.
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Summer8906 You're going in the right direction. It is indeed pre-1945 and the December ranks as one of the warmer ones in the history books - but 1934 is incorrect.
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Next one. Also from now on I will be referencing whether a month is average, cool or warm by its time period average. With newer/older years if you say it's all warm or cold it may be too easy to guess. Makes it a little harder. Here we go.
The winter was wet but not entirely mild. January was mostly zonal but turned colder by month's end. That lead into cold and snowy first half to February but broke down into a very mild second-half so it was only rather below average for temperature overall. Very low pressure dominated so a very wet month.
In contrast, the spring was dry but remained cool. March was mostly anticyclonic but quite cold with a lot of easterlies and northerlies. April had an unsettled first-half and there was some wintry weather early on but high pressure and quite mild weather dominated the second-half so it was quite a mild month. May was unsettled early on and there was a thundery spell around the 5th-6th but then it was mostly drier but quite chilly at times apart from a wet and windy interlude around the 22nd. May overall was rather dry and cool.
The summer was warm but quite wet, masking a rather dry July. June was warm but wet with a particularly hot first half with some big thunderstorms before a cooler second-half. July was hot with a very hot second-half (20C line over France) but some massive thunderstorms. Another hot and thundery spell towards months end with some very hot uppers. The weather deteriorated in August which was rather cool and wet but did have some fine and dry anticyclonic weather in the second-half.
The autumn had variable conditions. September was glorious, particularly in the first half with high pressure dominating. Weather fronts slowly came in in the second half though it only turned unsettled towards months end. October had a warm, wet and windy first half but a colder more anticyclonic second half so overall temperatures were near normal as was rainfall. November was mostly wet, windy and mild but not exceptionally so. December was warm and wet with a big bloated Bartlett for a large portion of the month.
The year was rather warmer and wetter than average.
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What about the anti-2011? 2011 is infamous for being all out of season, so perhaps the antithesis would be better?
Same as last time. Creative liberties taken.
January: Dull, cool and dry - though very sunny in the south-east where it was also driest.
CET: 3.4 (-0.5) / EWP: 67.7mm (83%) / Sunshine: 86%
February: Very cold - particularly cold across England & Wales - but also sunny. Very dry in the north-west but closer to normal totals further south and rather wet in parts of the south-west, though much of this precipitation fell as snow. Exceptionally sunny in Scotland but rather dull across the south-east into East Anglia.
CET: 0.9 (-3.2) / EWP: 45.4mm (69%) / Sunshine: 121%
March: Very cold, very wet and very dull with a lot of heavy snowfall. Particularly wet across the Midlands. Only north-east Scotland escaped the worst where it was rather dry and sunny, though still cold.
CET: 3.9 (-1.9) / EWP: 107.1mm (173%) / Sunshine: 77%
April: Extremely cold, beating the previous coldest of April 1837 by a fair margin. Extremely wet and dull as well though western Scotland was rather dry and less notably dull. A remarkable snowstorm across many parts of northern England on the 5th-6th as unseasonably cold air from the north-east met low pressure.
CET: 4.1 (-4.0) / EWP: 113.9mm (193%) / Sunshine: 67%
May: Cold - especially in the east - and generally wet and dull but with some regional variation. The east was very wet, particularly the south-east, whereas the north-west and western Scotland was very dry. Sunshine followed a similar pattern being dull most places but sunny in the west of Scotland and generally sunnier in the west as a whole. It topped off the fourth coldest spring on record.
CET: 10.3 (-1.1) / EWP: 79.4mm (124%) / Sunshine: 95%
June: Warm and dry. It was particularly dry across central southern areas on the south coast meanwhile rather wetter in the Midlands due to a thundery spell. It was very sunny across western Scotland but rather dull across England. Similarly it was warmer in the west than in the east.
CET: 15.0 (+0.8) / EWP: 44.7mm (67%) / Sunshine: 100%
July: Changeable and rather wet with overall average temperatures. Rather warm and sunny in the south but cool and dull in the north. It was notably wet around south Wales down through Somerset due to a thundery spell.
CET: 16.4 (+0.3) / EWP: 91.7mm (116%) / Sunshine: 98%
August: Sunny and dry but with average temperatures. It was notably dry and sunny in Scotland, meanwhile parts of the Midlands were rather cool. Many places were on the dry side but it was very dry in eastern Scotland the north-east as well as central southern areas but very wet in the west Midlands and parts of north Wales. It generally was warmer and drier in the west.
CET: 15.7 (-0.1) / EWP: 70.2mm (85%) / Sunshine: 135%
September: Cold, wet and dull away from western Scotland where it was sunny and dry. Generally very wet and dull in the east but drier and sunnier in the west. Cold everywhere. There was a notable northerly blast at month's end that brought an exceptionally cold spell with wintry showers over the high ground of Scotland and an air frost to many places.
CET: 11.5 (-2.0) / EWP: 104.1mm (129%) / Sunshine: 95%
October: Very cold. Very wet across much of England, particualrly the south-east, but dry in the north-west. Sunshine followed the same pattern where it was exceptionally sunny in western Scotland but extremely dull in East Anglia in particular. An exceptionally cold start to the month as an unusually frigid airmass from the north-east gave outbreaks of heavy snow in places from the 1st to the 3rd with a widespread air frost with temperatures going down to record levels for early October.
CET: 7.1 (-3.1) / EWP: 127.8mm (133%) / Sunshine: 97%
November: Extremely cold - the second coldest on record. Wet, but a lot of it falling as snow, particularly in the north. Particularly wet on the east coast but very dry in western Scotland once again. This finished off the coldest autumn on record, beating the previous record by 0.5C.
CET: 2.4 (-4.0) / EWP: 121.2mm (129%) / Sunshine: 98%
December: Quite cold though nearer normal across Scotland. Dry away from eastern coastal areas. Very sunny in the west but very dull in the east. It was particularly cold in the central south into south-west region.
CET: 3.3 (-1.2) / EWP: 57.8mm (65%) / Sunshine: 100%
Annual: A back-loaded winter with a fair bit of snow in the east but dry elsewhere followed by what would perhaps be the worst spring ever recorded. The summer would be mixed and not particularly anything to write home about and then the coldest autumn ever with a particularly dull, wet miserable theme in the south-east
CET: 7.8 (-1.7) / EWP: 1031.0mm (111%) / Sunshine: 97%
I'm not quite sure this year would be better at all...
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Daniel* Not really the place to discuss it so I think these posts should be moved - but my take on it is you don't neen European droughts even to see the absolute monstrous plumes that keep wafting out of North Africa. European summers are warming at such a rate that I really would not be surprised if the record isn't challenged, equalled or beaten by 2030. All you have to look at is the frequency of exceptionally plumes of hot air since 2019. Every year bar 2021 we've had a taste and it's only thanks to timing that September's heatwave occured when it did because the same magnitude happening in July or August, especically after like a warm and dry June such as 2023 would have been uncomfortable to witness on more than just a physical level. We just have to see if it's a short term trend and goes back to normal or if it keeps happening (we all know it will). At this point it's basically a challenge to avoid at least African plume.
Short version, I disagree with thinking that it's unlikely that 40C will be reached again this decade–without saying I think it definitely will. I hope it doesn't!
Anyway, to try and brign it back to topic, it would be interesting to average the output of the different models to see a mean baseline for what May 2024 may end as. Thinking it may very well be 14+C just due to sheer lack of cold nights.
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Daniel* Makes particularly the northern half of the country's anomalies even more exceptional when you consider May is a warming month, so for the first half to be 4-6C above average for the entire month is even more radical. February was almost 5C warmer than average in places too. 2024 really standing out from the rest of the warm years so far, so let's see if it continues.
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B87 Summer8906 April 1972 has an average CET and in the EWP series June 1972 is slightly wetter than average, it wasn’t an extremely dry month at all, at least not widespread. This year is almost definitely 1972.
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Very slow moving torrential showers around on the radar, including one just to my south. One of those days that where something kicks off it has the potential to pack quite a punch.
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Weather Enthusiast91 Yes I'm thinking 1972 as well.
Will enter my next one in a bit.
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Scorcher To be fair, Scorcher, you do the exact same thing just from the other side of the spectrum. Best focus on the models rather than comment on other people's take on the models.
Back to the model output. I haven't done a model rundown in a few days so might as well. I'll be looking at day 5 and day 10 on the models.
Starting with the GFS. It wants to keep pressure generally weak before developing a more substantial low pressure system around the 22nd/23rd which could be quite a wet spell. However by day 10 signs of a build back of pressure. So not an onslaught but more a continuation of May 2024's changeable nature.
Onto the ECM. It's similarly developing low pressure by the 21st and making it into a notable feature into the 22nd/23rd with the low parked over the country. This one does also show the risk of a wet spell in about a week's time and perhaps quite cool where rain lingers, but details like that aren't to be focused on a week away. It's also similar to the GFS in that after a couple days of low pressure, high pressure begins nosing in from the north so it also wants to turn dryer by day 10. A slight bit differently with a mid-Atlantic high, but these are warm northerlies with pockets of +10C air even. Again, details like orientation of the high and uppers are irrelevant now but the GFS and ECM are in agreement for the basic pattern for the next ten days.
Now the UKMO. We can't go to day 10 with this so I'll show the very furthest it can go, Wednesday the 22nd. It's also developing weaker pressure but to a lesser extent than the aforementioned models and perhaps a bit further south-east, but the risk for a wet spell is still there. How this would go on, I'm not sure.
Now the GEM. The GEM is completely different to the others as it doesn't have a strong Scandinavian high and it doesn't generate a low pressure system over the UK. Instead the low in the Atlantic helps to fuel the Azores high to link with the Scandi ridge. This quickly builds heights from the south and turns us very warm and dry away from the far north. This brings uppers of 12C+ over the UK so a serious chance with this we'd be looking at 30C and maybe threatening the May 1833 CET record. Since this is so different to the other models, I'm inclined to discard it, but you never know - it could all flip and maybe a hot spell is lurking.
My overall thoughts...
I think that we may see an unsettled spell into next week with a risk of further spells of heavy rain in places, but I don't think it looks to be a very long-lived affair as there are signs that after a couple days we may see high pressure and warmer, drier weather return. Indeed May 2024 is very much turning out to be a rinse and repeat type month.
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Interesting temperature anomaly map so far for the month. I don't know if this is relative to the monthly average up to the 15th or the full month, but interesting to see the anomalies highest across Scotland. Almost +6C anomalies in places!
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Scorcher That's what I said in the message basically. Looking at it more clearly for the UK the first half did the heavy lifitng. September and November were sunny but then rest of the second half of the year was dull.
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Scorcher I genuinely think the lack of sunshine has also been notable because we've really become accustomed to sunny years. Absolutely nothing to suggest the dull theme will definitely continue but if it did it and 2024 was to be a dull year, it would be the first for the UK since 2002. Our very dull spell since last year is very anomalous in the past 30 years. It's perhaps the most underlooked but one of the most interesting and drastic changes to our climate alongside temperature.
Back to present time and I can't help but feel like it's not out of the question some crazy run will end up verifying and May 1833's record will be kissed goodbye.
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Weather Enthusiast91 That'll be 1920 I think!
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What about the anti-1912? 1912 is the dullest year on record so I imagine this would, for many, be a corker.
CBA with the anomaly maps this time.
January: A dry and very sunny month with frequent northwesterlies. I imagine quite a lot of cold zonality but often dry, especially in the south.
CET: 3.5 (-0.4) / EWP: 53.8mm (66%) / Sunshine: 131%
February: A mild and wet start with balmy south-westerly winds but quickly turning drier and colder. Frequent northerlies and north-easterlies. "Wet" in the south-east but drier elsewhere. Very sunny.
CET: 2.5 (-1.6) / EWP: 60.9mm (93%) / Sunshine: 121%
March: A very cold but extremely dry and rather sunny month. A near permanent anticyclone all month with winds often from an easterly or north-easterly direction. I imagine it would be duller further south though with occasional snow grains.
CET: 4.5 (-1.3) / EWP: 15.8mm (26%) / Sunshine: 110%
April: Extremely wet, rather cool and very dull. Frequent easterlies in the first half before becoming more westerly and milder later. The wettest April on record for the south-east.
CET: 7.2 (-0.9) / EWP: 142.4mm (241%) / Sunshine: 80%
May: Near-normal rainfall and temperatures but sunny.
CET: 11.0 (-0.4) / EWP: 68.0mm (106%) / Sunshine: 116%
June: Warm, very dry and very sunny. Very warm first half with a slightly more changeable second half with some northerlies but very little in the way of rain. Probably a month with very warm days but near normal/rather cool minima.
CET: 14.8 (+0.6) / EWP: 22.2mm (33%) / Sunshine: 134%
July: On the warm side and sunny but rather changeable. A hot and humid start then thundery for a time before altnernating spells of high pressure and low pressure but without any long, dull spells. High pressure and hot easterlies returning by month's end.
CET: 16.6 (+0.5) / EWP: 61.8mm (78%) / Sunshine: 125%
August: The hottest, driest and sunniest August on record. Virtually rainless almost everywhere apart from some isolated storms on the 11th, 22nd and 31st. Permanent baking hot winds from the south and east. London failed to record a maxima lower than 22C all month.
CET: 19.5 (+3.7) / EWP: 8.3mm (10%) / Sunshine: 169%
September: Rather warm and sunny but very wet. Remaining very warm in the first-half but much cooler with frequent north-westerlies in the second half. Severe thunderstorms as low pressure finally encroaches from the south-west on the 2nd, breaking the drought, then dry and hot for another couple of days before low presure takes over by the 7th though remaining humid with winds from the south/south-west until the 12th. Then cool to very cool for the remainer of the month with frequent westerlies/northwesterlies.
CET: 14.7 (+1.2) / EWP: 110.7mm (137%) / Sunshine: 106%
October: A very changeable month with near-normal stats masking some large variations. Generally unsettled in the first half, starting mild, then a colder spell from the north mid-month, but then becoming anticyclonic in the second half with pleasant days but cool nights.
CET: 10.1 (-0.1) / EWP: 95.6mm (100%) / Sunshine: 95%
November: Extremely sunny, the sunniest November on record, but rather wet. Average temperatures.
CET: 6.5 (+0.1) / EWP: 98.7mm (106%) / Sunshine: 137%
December: After the sunniest November, the sunniest December. Cold with some severe snowfall over the south-west.
CET: 1.9 (-2.6) / EWP: 52.4mm (59%) / Sunshine: 171%
Annual:
CET: 9.4 (-0.1C) / EWP: 790.6mm (86%) / Sunshine: 124%
Would rank 35th driest year and beat 2003 as sunniest.
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Summer8906 Correct
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Just for fun: Guess the year
in Historic Weather
Posted
B87 It’s not 1907 and it’s not before 1900.
It’s a common year after WWI