LetItSnow!

Scorcher I’m simply showing what the model is showing up to day 10 (and never beyond) as I usually do and that there was a trend between the two runs, plus why due to SSTs it may not be entirely unfeasible for unsettled and/or further thundery episodes. The model may very well be wrong and we could enter a longer dry spell. I only talk about what is there in as unbiased a way as possible. Just like how I talked about the warm pattern in early April. The GFS has had a better year this year at predicting changes to be fair. If it’s any consolation I think May will be warm/very warm and thundery.

GFS 12z shows that by the 8th we do look to have a nice ridge over the country and with rather average but pleasant uppers of around 5 C, I reckon this will easily see sunny spells and temperatures into the low-twenties. Interestingly, after this on both the 6z and the 12z the GFS takes the trough in the mid Atlantic and powers it up into a big low pressure system giving perhaps a mini thundery breakdown around the 11th and throwing us back into unsettled conditions around day ten. Now, of course this is a long way out in forecasting terms but it does show that caution needs to be had over ideas of a long settled spell beginning. It’s probably not a far fetched idea as warm SSTs in this region may fuel trough development to our south-west.

The southern half of Wngland, particularly the south-west, is looking to have a considerable amount of rainfall due to the storms and general area of rain today. The concept of a very dry month there already wobbling.

Deepest thunder of the entire night. Lightning isn’t as frequent but the deep booms are insane. Not out there recording this one though.

Another cell moving in with a very long clap of thunder. Deep boom.

forgive my rambles some moments from the roughly 15 minutes of filming i did. featuring a star cameo of my cold, wet leg IMG_3980.mov IMG_3980.mov

Did we just have a site outage there? Got 503 for about 5-10 minutes. Spoke too soon about the video. It cut the initial strike in half. Absolutely gutted. The rest of the strikes weren’t really able to be caught on camera. Not as good as I’d thought. No regrets though. Felt amazing to be out in the storm! If I had deleted some pictures beforehand I could have gotten a full picture of this! Meanwhile the latest radar image shows some minor developments across Kent. Round two? EDIT: Another mini cell firing off from the Medway towns with a strike on the radar around the same area.

Something quite amazing happened. I’d stopped recording and then all of a sudden it picked up like mad. Got an incredible strike on camera and as soon as it ended the phone camera said it was full. Hoping it caught it though. Deleted some junk then kept going and caught a couple more crackers. Definitely think I’ve got a couple corker screenshots out of this and I definitely will upload the video somewhere. I really thought it was over then BAM!

Frequent lighting though the rain has moderated. Did record for a bit but lighting has now gone behind some trees. I think I may have captured a strike on camera though. If anyone wants to watch me ramble amongst thunder then I’ll upload the video as well as screenshots.

It wasn’t my eyes as the first big flicker just peered through the low cloud. I can hear the rumbles and the breeze is picking up . The childhood fear in me always comes out when a storm is approaching. I’m not actually afraid but it’s like a leftover of it, I get butterflies and a dry mouth and a bit shakey. Going to start recording soon. rumbles turning to a constant low roar.

I don’t know if it’s my eyes playing tricks on me but I feel like I can see flickers through the low cloud. Almost like the clouds are glitching.

Big blob of purple advancing its way towards me… I can already hear the tune from Jaws playing.

Becoming very breezy and an ominous feel. It’s a strange feeling though because of it being early in the year it actually feels quite cold. If I was just woken up and hadn’t read a forecast I’d just assume it was a breezy westerly pattern and wouldn’t have assumed it was so volatile.

My suspicions seem to be supported by the next radar frame. I think an area of severe storms is advancing its way towards C. London. And as I was typing this a big flash in the sky and some drops of rain starting… It’s about to go BOOM. I can feel it. The animals in the park have just gone mad. I think something might be developing overhead ?

Eagle Eye Unrelated to the storms but those are some groovy solar lights.

There seems to be an explosion of organised activity moving into the Thames Estuary and its aiming for my area. I wonder if this is a developing area of supercells like across Sussex and Surrey or whether it’ll die out over here again. Got the feeling it’s the former since cells are starting to form to the south. Is it C. London’s turn…?

Just heard a rumble from the mini cell to my south.

Azazel Now we know where the rumbles are coming from at least. Eastern edge firing into life with some vivid colours around the Oxted area.

Saving these screen captures for future reference. Intense stuff. Lucky they’re not slower moving as if they were there would be some very severe flooding risks. Reminds me of the storms around the Portsmouth area on April 20, 2018 which were similarly intense and early in the season.

Incredible rainfall rates across Sussex at the moment. Rarely do you see such a mass amount of purples. Off the scale. I tried looking at traffic cameras down that way. This one at the M23 feels quite apt, whether it’s a poor image or fog I’m not sure, but the rain is so heavy it’s basically a cloud/sheet of rain. Crawley about to get absolutely trashed.

Stepped away for a bit and I see reinvigoration after it went a bit quiet on the northern edge. Your pictures are great guys. Will be sure to take some if anything local pops up

Storms seem to be losing all their juice as they head up towards London at the moment.

Zak M Was just about to post that. While the lightning is understandably the most interesting factor to most, the rainfall rates are off the scale. If any places see prolonged rainfall of this type on already saturated ground we could be looking at some very bad flash flooding. Some places could be extremely sodden tonight!

They're growing bigger and more intense and moving in my direction.

Biblical rainfall around Canterbury on the radar. Must be a right walloping under that.