LetItSnow!

Shillitocettwo I'm not actually sure this might happen since if the winds do turn south-westerly then even if the days are relatively unexceptional, the nights will probably be quite mild + April is a rapidly warming month, though you can't rule out a very cold spell at some point and very mild winters do have a tendency to save their last laugh for April; see 2016, 1998, 1989 for example. I actually even saw heavy snow in April 2019 (and May) locally after that warm February.

Summer8906 1947 truly the year where all the seasons were turned up to 200%. Probably the most extreme year the UK has ever seen. It had extreme cold, extreme heat, extreme rainfall and flooding, extreme drought, extreme sunshine amounts, extreme sunshine defecits; truly a year of the ultimate extreme and probably a year we don't ever see the likes of again unless blocking becomes the norm later the century and even then, who's to say the winter would pack as much an oomf. Funny quirk how 1947 was the ultimate seasonal year and 1974 (the numbers flipped around) was the total opposite with the year being anti-seasonal. Using that logic, 2032 one for the history books?

May edit this closer to the time if any changes show up in the models but I'll enter with 9.4C and 135mm. I think the very unsettled weather will prevail through a lot of the month but I would be surprised if we don't tap into some warm or very warm air at some point during the month and I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere exceeds 25C this month. I would go warmer but I feel like exceptionally warm and exceptionally wet isn't very common in April so I'll be rather tame with the warmth. There is a plume of it to our south and I think even if we avoid it there'll be quite mild nights a lot.

B87 Interesting that cluster from 1979-1981. Key difference to now is that March 1979 and March 1980 probably had melted snow make up some of that total! 1981, 2023 and 2024 a whole lotta rain.

B87 Down here yes but parts of Scotland managed 21C on the 17th of April last year. You often see locally warm temperatures up there at that time of the year. Probably something to do with geography, very strong sun and high pressure oriented in the right place.

Summer8906 The odds of October 2024 being excessively wet must surely be lower due to the fact that we've had an (IIRC) unparralelled run of wet Octobers since 2019. October 2024 being another really wet one would be silly. Regardless of what the summer is like, a dry, anticyclonic October would sweeten the kiss of the death of summer a LOT. I don't really care about cloudiness and I certainly don't care about the rain (I'm the only one enjoying the novelty of this current spell) but the light levels are really rough to me sometimes, especially over the past season which for personal reasons was quite taxing. It just doesn't help. I think when it's the dark months of the years it cheers you up to have a stonking big Scandi high blowing a winter wonderland your way, so by all means, if high pressure wants to dominate in late 2024 then may it do so in that fashion please! Meanwhile before then a 2001 style summer will do just fine. No big stonking heatwaves please. I want to feel normal 23C, bubbly clouds and a gentle breeze, who could want more?...

For some reason my intution says autumn 2024 will see lots of high pressure overhead and to our east. Maybe like 2007 how after an extremely warm period we sort of ran out of steam and tended to be average to a little below pretty much all the way through until 2013 with warm interludes. Now, I'm not suggesting we're going to have a span of colder years until 2030, though unlike some I do believe absolutely that they are possible and will occur again. I have this intuitive feeling that the high pressure will dominate through the end of 2024 and give us quite a festive Xmas period and that winter 2024/2025 will be our first real winter in years, though that could vary anywhere from 2020/2021 intensity to full on 1962/1963 (I wish!... you never know (don't tell me the statisitcs of how rare that would be, I know!!!)). Getting a bit ahead of myself there.

Summer8906 Summer8906 Had my go at a little forecast. One thing you'll notice on the map is the anomalously high pressure beginning to inflate to our south. 50 years ago this pattern would have dug further south but as we've seen a lot recently, we end up on the boundary between low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure to our south. Already got the gut feeling it's a preview of another scorching summer to our south. Oh how nice it would be for normal weather again... Not any time soon!

Very unsettled outlook for the first week or so of April at this time. Low pressure dominating with no doubt copious showers and longer spells of rain at times. Rather cool feel but signs of a southwesterly element setting up around the 5th which gets the 5C uppers into the south of England which could mean any sunny spells could be decent. I also wonder if these moisture laden southwesterly winds may be conducive to thunderstorms or at least thundery showers in places. Wouldn’t be surprised if there could be a bang here and there as we go into April. From just a quick analysis, overall a very unsettled start to April with a lot of rain and perhaps some thunder. I’d imagine mostly unexceptional temperatures but the south could climb into the upper teens if sunny spells developed. Of course it’s also worth pointing out the details are yet to be firmed up on closer to day ten and either high pressure may ridge closer than anticipated giving a chance of some warmer, drier days, particularly in the south, or that the low pressure may dig a little further south and the mildness is reduced. Warm air surging northwards through Europe could fuel low pressure our way so one to watch out for. Either way, take the opposite advice of The Weather Girls and don’t leave those umbrellas at home!

Summer8906 Current output shows that we eventually pull a southwesterly flow with the low pressure so ending up rather mild but probably not overly warm if cloud amounts are high. If anything just looks like a similar pattern to the predominant pattern since last autumn. First week to ten days of April could be really wet. A significantly drier an average April already looking on shaky ground. Still, could be some convective material in those southwesterlies. Plus low pressure in April usually is conducive to some good storms. Reckon there could be some fun to be had there. Otherwise more rain, this time between 10-18C probably.

I think unsettled conditions will prevail until the autumn but I do feel the autumn will be a dry one, perhaps very dry one, and fine like in 2007.

raz.org.rain To be fair, two weeks away in model terms is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. I would expect 20C in April though as that’s very normal. You record the first 20C in April on average anyway. I think the last time we failed to was all the way back in 2012.

SunnyG We’ve got a thread for it by now, don’t worry

B87 Looking at the maps for the 1991-2020 averages for sunshine and 2002, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2017 and 2021 become duller than normal UK wide but the rest are average or sunny and many coming out sunnier than normal compared to our old normal climate. Sun is the name of the game these days, even in very wet years like 2020. To be honest, sun lovers should be rejoicing. Apparently the 21st century UK motto has changed from sunshine after the rain to sunshine and the rain as well.

B87 What do you mean the actual averages? I’m using the 1961-1990 averages to highlight how sunny we’ve gotten this century and how 2024 being very dull for the UK overall would be unusual. Interesting to think about what we consider dull conditions are not always that exceptional compared to our “normal” climate. That’s the data I was trying to convey and what I’m interested in, personally.

B87 I flicked through all the years and to get a UK wide year that was overall rather dull you have to go back to 2002. We’re definitely overdue one, though it’s not something I’m wishing for! No doubt 2024 will hit us with some very sunny months, it’s custom. But the question is will it happen in the spring as usual or will my summer premonitions be wrong? I’d like a 2001 or 2005 style summer personally, very agreeable with something for everyone, not much extremes, decent sun, rain and hot spells in all three months. Everyone’s happy.

B87 Country wide though. It’s a known fact we’re getting sunnier. 2021 was sunnier than average overall but the south bore the front. Can attest to that, I was in London that summer! I only remember grey skies, very little sun. 2023 was also very sunny for many Dull years country wide don’t happen like they used to it seemed.

Summer8906 Considering 2022 was thought to be a new normal at the time, it shows no one really knows. The truth is probably just an oscillation between the two which was always the case, just warmer and wetter overall but when it gets hot it gets really hot! What makes this wet spell we’re in now quite unique is how persistent it’s been. 1965-1969 was a very, very long wet spell but that was punctuated by drier months at times. The 1870s into the 1880s had a spell of about 8 or 9 years where every year was between about 950-1,100mm. I wonder if spells like those are now more in favour. Honestly, hard to tell. I wonder if differing factors that produce different results will end up just going back to my original point of it being varied as always with big extremes.

Summer8906 While I’ve spoken about analogues recently, in terms of pattern matching for specific UK weather it’s totally useless. The only analogues I care for are matching global drivers that can point to the likelihood of troughs and highs in certain areas. The year has had an uncannily similarity to 1998 though it must be said. Further back you and Sean spoke about this year likely to be the dullest and wettest on record. A little extreme as we’re only three months in! I have to say though, I do think that we may see the record broken for wettest year ever in our lifetimes, though I’d be rather surprised if the exceptionally wet pattern held long enough to do that. We’ve never had a year cross the 1,300mm line in the England and Wales Precipitation records going back to 1766; I think we’ll manage it eventually. Makes you wonder how wet the UK could possibly be in one year; 1,400mm? 15? I’ll stop counting before I trigger panic attacks! As for summer… Still some “hopium” I personally feel going around, though there is every chance we could flip from one extreme to another, but I’d rather we don’t. I have got this premonition type feeling that floods will be a in the news this summer though for us and/or Europe… not a forecast, just a feeling. 1,300mm record anyone? Also last bit of a tangent but the sunshine thing, I don’t expect that to go but it would actually be overdue since how sunny we’ve been in the 21st century. A very dull year for most of the country would stand out.

danm That white area on the map where I live checks out as the second half from memory seemed unsettled. As stated, the 15th and 17th brought thunder, particularly the 17th, but I feel like there were more bits and pieces throughout the rest of the month. I remember the closing days being warm and sunny though.

From memory, bone dry up until the 15th with buckets of sunshine and plenty of hot weather. The ground was just completely parched and I'm pretty sure heat stress combined with dry weather lead to the final death of a crab apple tree on our street. The 15th saw storms breaking out and we saw a torrential downpour give our first proper rain since June. Then the 17th brought through a general area of thundery rain which brought a welcome deluge. Then generally some bits of rain and I think further storms at times generally turned all the grass slowly back to green. All the parched grass was back to green by early September. Seemed often pleasant with little in the way of overly humid conditions. The general dry feel of the heat made 2022, like 2018, a preferable summer to one's that were often humid.

CryoraptorA303 Of the main three. Also your other comment said 1973 was a very wet year. I think you mean 1974 because 1973 was very, very dry. 1971-1973 was very dry and if it hadn’t have been for a wet interlude in 1974 then the 1975-1976 drought could have been even more intense.

raz.org.rain I think, while that can’t be ruled out, I think is unlikely and probably won’t happen, but the continents proclivity for heat domes means we’ll probably be on the periphery of tapping into some hot or even very hot weather at times. An unscientific hunch says we’ll stay out the firing line this year as I’ve got 1998 vibes (my one good month theory holds up here as August 1998 was decent in the south) but this could go completely wrong of course. But I’m not sold on a hot summer. None of us know, and I think educated guesses from well knowledgeable members and experts are worth far more than the long range models!

B87 Slightly damp soil in summer isn’t the end of the world, mud baths on the other hand… But as statistics make (at this point, to me) a washout summer unlikely (famous last words), even a mixed bag summer would see enough evaporation due to the sun drying things out. It’s different in large fields but many areas I’ve seen become dry with just a week of mostly dry weather. Dryer than average conditions would be of absolutely no issue after an unprecedented spell of wet weather, absolutely, but I wouldn’t want to swing to abnormally dry. Rapid swings of extremes tend to not be the greatest. We saw a good example of how quickly things can dry out after the rains of February 2020 were followed by spring drought and things were already, at least locally (I was in the countryside at the time not the city) things dried up by early April.

B87 Last thing we need in my opinion is going from one extreme to another. Going from endless rain to months without any would be a nuisance and overkill. And yes, two poor Julys are indeed possible. Four are actually, 1985-1988! But odds are probably that July even if poor may not be *as* poor. And to be honest, it does open the question of both personal preference and the normal climate. There have been many mixed Augusts this century but not many truly horrendous ones. I hope the summer is extremely mild with little, hopefully no heat spikes at all, nice spells of high pressure but also unsettled spells as well. Watch it or I’ll do a rain dance! (Fun fact, did that in late 2013 when I was 12 when I learned about the culture and may have unleashed that winter the followed… you know who to blame. ).