LetItSnow!

A Face like Thunder 1927 ranks as one of the wettest years on record with an average of 1108.2mm. It seems many years in the 1920s had mild winters and poor summers. The grotty weather that has blighted the UK at times in the 2020s seems to mirror that of the 1920s, though much warmer. After that cold December and blizzard the rest of the winter that followed was very wet and mild and another poor summer followed in 1928. The 1920s in terms of UK weather sounded very grey… 1922-1928 was a very wet period.

Summers such as 1954, 1988 and 2012 are frequently mentioned when talking about poor UK summers, but one that seems to have been forgotten in the history books is the summer of 1927, a very wet and generally cool summer. June 1927 was a very wet and cold month with a C.E.T. of 12.6C and EWP of 101.3mm. It was the wettest June since 1912 and there wouldn't be one wetter until 1958. Whilst it was a cold June for the C.E.T. series, it was even colder across Scotland where it was remarked as one of the coldest Junes in recorded history. Edinburgh saw its coldest June since records began in 1764, meanwhile the Channel Islands were around half a degree below average. It was dull everywhere except parts of Scotland. The first ten days are generally described as being cool and unsettled with frequent thunderstorms. The 7th was particularly wet with falls of around 40mm across NI. Sleet fell in Ushaw Moore, County Durham on the 8th. There was a brief spell of settled weather from the 11th to the 15th which gave the best conditons of the month, though cool uppers meant there was some exceptionally cold nights in the north. The temperature fell to -3C at Castleton, Yorkshire the night of the 14th into the 15th. In stark contrast, Greenwich saw the highest temperature of the entire month on the 16th as the ridge repositioned itself and 29C was recorded. The rest of June 1927 deteriorated even further and there were gales and heavy rain on most days. Gales of between 50-60mph on the 21st. Further severe thunderstorms peppered the country in the final ten days, particularly the 25th and 26th where the latter day saw large hail in the Thames Valley region. July 1927 is described as a very cloudy and humid month with mild nights but cool days and with violent thunderstorms. It has a C.E.T. of 15.9C. It was a warm month across Scotland but near-normal elsewhere. Rainfall generally tended to be above normal but there was large regional variation with parts of the south-east seeing over double the normal amount but around Great Yarmouth totals were around 70% and in the extreme north there was less than a third. It has an EWP of 96.0mm, the driest of the three months. Unsettled and thundery conditions prevailed for the first ten days with severe thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms on the 5th caused crop damage and lightning damage to buildings in the north of England. A large mass of torrential thundery rain hit the SE on the 6th into the 7th with particular flooding in the Dover area. Yet more intense storms on the 11th, this time focused on the Capital. The 11th brought daytime darkness to London (similar sounding event to 6 August 1981) as 1.5 inches of rain fell in 12 minutes in Balham, London. This was a day after the warmest day of the month, a meagre 28C in Calshot, Hampsire on the 10th. Considerable flooding damage was also reported across Staffordshire and Oldham. Fine weather prevailed for a time mid-month but the final ten days renewed the unsettled weather though of a considerably less volatile nature. That said, there was further flooding on the 21st across Ashton-under-Lyne, Sunderland, Glasgow and Greenock. July 1927 sounds like a pre-AGW version of a standard summer month of the past ten years, lots of winds from a S and W quadrant, lots of cloud and a humid feel. August 1927 is described as a thoroughly unsettled month. It has a C.E.T. of 15.6 and an EWP of 139.5mm. A report from Halstead, Essex writes: "The month was remarkable for the long spell of wet weather which lasted almost without a break from the 5th to the 25th". Totland Bay on the Isle of Wight recorded its most humid August on record with a mean relative humidty of 84%. The mean wind direction was south-westerly and it was very dull away from the far north and NI. Only in the far north and north-west of Scotland was there a deficiency of rainfall. The month actually started fine bar some heavy rain in the south-east on the 1st. High pressure built and the 2nd to the 5th was mainly warm, dry and fine and the warmest temperature of the month was on the 5th with 27C at Cullompton, Devon. Thunderstorms broke out due to rapidly weakening pressure into the 5th and 6th and this marked the start of 2-3 weeks of exceptionally wet and cloudy weather. Exceptionally heavy rain across northern England and Scotland on the 8th with intense rain storms causing flooding in the Perthshire and Lothian regions. It was an extremely thundery month, particularly across Scotland with around 21 days of thunder on average. Four times the normal August rainfall fell in the Midlands from the 14th to the 20th alone. There was a reprieve of the worst conditions in the south after about the 23rd and little rain fell across the south-east after this as pressure rose, but it stayed unsettled in the north. Chilly on the 25th with the temperature dipping to -1C at Braemar. The summery charts at the end of September may have you believing that like can happen many times, a nice September followed a poor summer - however, it actually got worse! September 1927 was exceptionally wet, cold and very dull with a C.E.T. of 12.5C and an EWP of 154.0mm. Reports from this month include: Malvern: "The month was noteworthy for lack of sunshine, excess of rainfall and humidity above the average". Eastbourne: "The total sunshine duration for the month is the second lowest total for September in 40 years, the lowest September total on record being 114-9 hours in 1905". Many reports from across the country remark about flooded ground, no doubt due to the persistent heavy rainfall through the summer. Similarly to August, the month began fine with the 2nd being the warmest day of the month with 24C at multiple stations across the east and south-east. "The thunderstorm which visited south and south-east Scotland on the morning of the 7th was the worst in severity experienced for many years it was accompanied by torrential rain which caused extensive flooding, particularly in the Lothians and border counties". "Southern and eastern England experienced a period of recurring heavy rains from September 13th to 15th. The largest daily totals occurred between the mornings of September 14th and 15th and in most places were well above an inch. Amongst the largest measurements were 63mm at Brighton, 61mm at Portsmouth, 59mm at Grayshott and 58mm at Long Sutton. In many places, e.g., Norwich, Yarmouth, Marlborough, Brighton, Southsea, Bognor and Lowestoft, the total rainfall for the three days September 13th, 14th and 15th was well in excess of the normal for the month. Snow fell on the Cairngorms on the 17th; Deerness and Llandudno had each one day on which snow or sleet fell". Exceptionally heavy falls occurred over widespread areas in the east on the 22nd and in the west on the 28th. Amongst the largest measurements were 83mm. at Stonehaven, 78mm. at Boghall and Abroath, and 72mm. at Montrose on the 22nd and 62mm. at Greenock on the 28th. At Edinburgh (Blackford Hill) where the total for the month was 201mm. (or more than four times the normal), September was the wettest month on record since August 1877 and the wettest September since 1785. A gust of 70 m.p.h. was recorded at Dunfanaghy (Donegal) during the gale on the night of September 8th-9th. During the gale which affected the south-west of England on the 29th, the wind in a gust attained a velocity of 66 m.p.h. at Pendennis and 65 m.p.h. at Scilly (St. Mary's). -2C was recorded at St. Albans on the 27th as high pressure built in after northerly winds. After a very poor summer, the first half of October 1927 was high pressure dominated and apart from morning fog, was mild and sunny with temperatures as high as 22C by the 7th. Typical! The summer of 1927 is the 9th wettest summer on record for the UK as a whole. It ranks 2nd in terms of "wet days" meaning days where at least 1mm fell, indicating that while there may have been less severe floods than summers like 2007, it was more persistently wet.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on rainfall this month as April has kept the ongoing wetter than average conditions since July last year. I already spoke about it a couple weeks ago but we’ve already surpassed 1960-1961 and 2000-2001 in terms of length and appear to now be the second longest ever spell of wetter than average months behind January 1872 through to January 1873, 13 months. We’d need to keep wetter than average weather through to August 2024 to beat it. A thundery start to May with troughs around the place making sure we’re not off to a dry start… Now we see if high pressure comes in and if it does, will it hold? Fascinating times. In a perverse sense I want it to be beat. All eyes on rainfall this May.

feels like it’s been ages since a proper thundery attack from the south / southeast. i don’t know what the odds will be here in central london of getting anything direct. it’ll be a night of model watching no doubt.

13.7 and 66mm. I think the month will be drier than we’ve known for a while but unsettled spells will mean it still comes out rather wet. I think it’ll be very warm with at least one spell of quite hot weather and that some of the rain will fall as severe thunderstorms at times.

Must be some really high totals from last night. Heavy rain, even in the reds on the radar at times, pretty much non-stop all night. Tipped an already wet April into the very wet category no doubt.

jonboy The earth is warming. Basic science shows this, science that actually predates just the 20th century - 1856 to be exact, by Eunice Foote. We may not know exactly where we’ll end up. We—or I should say, the guys in suits—have a say how far we do end up though. With such undeniable evidence and solid science, anyone who disagrees with it should not be shocked to be called a denier. It is denial, nothing more. I’m not saying this to start an argument and I anticipate this being removed, but interesting conversations and theories must start in reality and the reality we face is clear.

B87 I’ll take a look at the Met Office reports and conjure up a anti report

To me, summer 2019 was pathetic as it was a summer that couldn’t seem to fully achieve being really poor or really good. I’d have far preferred the novelty of the entire summer panning out like the first half of June because while miserable it would have been interesting to me. The heat spike was detestable and as commented before, it seemed humid and nasty a lot of the time. I have the same issue with summer 2020. Two irritating summers weather wise. I far preferred summer 2021 and summer 2022 because at least they had “conviction” in their weather patterns per se

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

CryoraptorA303 I disagree about the browning of grass in summer comment too actually. Many summers you can have a slight discolouration. I can recall 2013, 2016 and even August 2020 before the brunt of the unsettled weather. I don't think it's an every year occurence though, but it is common. Grass and mud are quite fickle at surface level. Similar to how mud can become dry and cracked after a dry week or two even if its been unsettled (depending on soil type and area I suppose, but I've definitely seen that).

The 12z of the GFS sees a similar progression albeit in a slightly position. Perhaps a cool, wet and windy end to April on the cards.

While waiting for the 12z to roll out I couldn't help but notice how much of a big deal the GFS 6z made of low pressure around the 27th/28th. Wet and windy the name of the game here and only rather below average temperatures away from where rain may keep the temperatures down more notably. It does seem weaker pressure of some sort will be the dominating feature of late April, but whether it is slack pressure with showers or a return to notably wet and windy weather, it remains to be seen. If it does turn like this then April will go down as a thoroughly wet and dull month. Even this drier spell has seen showers on most days here in London. I'm seriously impressed at how long this wet spell has lasted. No drying out round here!

In yet another series of funny repeating patterns, the Aprils of 1814, 1914 and 2014 have all been well above average for temperature. The way we're going it may be a safe bet to assume April 2114 will be too!

Here's an interesting one, the anti-1740. The real 1740 is by far the coldest year ever recorded. Using the C.E.T. and limited data/reports from this year, here's what its anti may look like. I imagine a year in the 2020s or 2030s could read like this, so it's written in the style of that rather than as "anti-1740". The C.E.T.s are not calculated by the opposite anomaly but by each months relative ranking in the C.E.T. Jan 7.1 Feb 7.3 Mar 6.8 Apr 9.7 May 13.9 Jun 16.0 Jul 16.5 Aug 16.7 Sep 12.8 Oct 14.3 Nov 9.2 Dec 6.0 - 11.36C This winter was extremely mild. It included a notably mild January and February, both of which were in the 'top-5' of coldest such-named months. Using the CET series, both January and February averaged above 7.0C, the only time this has ever occured. An exceptionally severe south-westerly gale on the 11th of January accomapnied by remarkably mild temperatures in the mid-teens. London saw its most damaging windstorm since 1703. Much of southern England was completely frost free during both January and February. A notably wet January across England & Wales. Heavy rainfall over the winter culminated in severe flooding in March. Following a warm winter, a notably warm spring. Temperatures on the 16th of May rose to 32C in London, breaking the record for the earliest 90F ever recorded. A very warm June followed. After a period of unexceptional temperatures from July to September the anomalous warmth returned in October, breaking the record for warmest such-named month by over 1C. Unusually warm from the 9th to the 12th of October with temperatures into the upper 20s. Alternatively, the C.E.Ts relative to their rankings at the time instead of all time. Jan 7.5 Feb 8.5 Mar 7.9 Apr 10.5 May 13.8 Jun 17.0 Jul 18.0 Aug 18.0 Sep 11.5 Oct 14.3 Nov 8.6 Dec 7.3 - 11.91C

Metwatch Interesting that it's turning into another month with the brunt of the warm anomalies in England, especially the south. Considering the month is only slightly above average in Scotland, will this colder second half lead to just an average month for temperature in Scotland? Granted the anomalies are against the 1991-2020 averages, so no - but for the current era maybe. Only at the 19th and a large swathe of northern England and southern Scotland are exceptionally above normal for rainfall. Granted its only the 19th but sunshine tracking to be pretty dismal everywhere. Absolutely no surprise given the south-westerlies that dominated the first half.

jamesthemonkeh Dare I say that looks a tad unstable, showery at least, with strong April sunshine and slack pressure. Could be a few rumbles with that.

Metwatch Back in the days when weather used to be real weather!

summer blizzard 1818 seems to have a blistering June-July pairing with a CET of 16.4 and 18.2 respectively. August 1818 didn’t wanna play ball though at 15.3C. Extremely dry summer though oddly despite August being the coolest month it was the driest with a paltry 20mm on the EWP series. I imagine 1818 must’ve been very blocked, a very meridional type pattern that aligned well for UK heat at first but then changed to lots of cool but dry weather later. I imagine if it had existed, the synoptic charts would have a lot of HP over and to our west. 2001 a much more straightforward British summer type fare and one I’d be fine with.

May 2018 was for the true summer lovers as it had the warmth and sunniness as well as explosive convection. May 2020 was more for the nature walk type who just enjoy bright and comfortable weather. I preferred May 2020 as it seemed far sunnier and pleasant and had some interesting synoptic variation, though the storms of late May 2018 were awe inspiring.

There is no direct correlation between the weather in spring and the following summer, but there are many examples of years that had “dismal” springs that had nice summers after then. At a browse I can see: 2013, 1996, 1983, 1975, 1969 *Edit 1969 is an interesting summer, definitely forgotten. Not an all time classic but it seems to have been very pleasant. June 1969 was very sunny and apparently the sunniest on record in London at the time, though temperatures were a little below average due to some cool nights. July 1969 seems to have been a month punctuated by two extremely wet spells early and late but warm and dry during the middle third with the temperature up to 32C on the 22nd. Very dry in Scotland and dry overall except where the rains came on the 6th and then the 28th/29th, the latter of which seems to have been ferociously thundery. August 1969 seemed to have a bit of a NW/SE split, very dry in the NW but wet and dull in the extreme east but for most quite good. For the 1960s standards it would have been gorgeous. I’d take it over 2022 any day.

I thought this video was great. It may not be perfect but we’re making more progress than I thought we were. I do believe it’s possible we could avoid the very worst. Also seemed to dispel the emissions myth.

Metwatch The definition of spring-like is iffy in this country when you can have such Aprils such and 2011 and 2012 contrasting eachother. But what I meant, and maybe ir was not the best word to use, but that early flowering and budding and such remarkably persistent mildness meant that the month felt like a particularly gnarly spell of weather in late March or April. The mildness combined with the local exceptionally early budding and flowering meant that to me it was spring-like, but not everyone has the same definition.

Sun Chaser Just not with the July 2023 bit tacked on after?

ANYWEATHER Certainly will feel cold if we get cold, wet and blustery north-easterly winds! I imagine the feels like temperatures would be quite the picture on the 0z around the 26th with 40-50mph NE winds around north-east coastal areas with heavy rain to boot. But it may not be that bad, little movements in where the low eventually ends up could make such a large difference as to whether it’s just showery and chilly or cold and miserable. Shades of 1998/2007 yet again…