LetItSnow!

Heard gentle rain outside the window after checking the radar a while ago with it being dry here & I see a little cell/storm has developed just next 2 us. I’m expecting the rain 2 become torrential any second now!

Augusts from 1977-1980 were generally poor to very poor. 1977 had a N/S split with the north being dry & sunny but the south exceptionally wet & thundery, but cool everywhere. 1978 was poor everywhere & 1979 was violently unsettled & known for the Fastnet Yacht Disaster where an area of low pressure killed 15 people & destroyed about 100 yachts. 1980 was also poor, very cloudy with warm minima making up for cool maxima, somewhat like Aug. 2008. 1981 had the infamous daytime darkness storms on the 6th & overall was the best August since 1976, though still unremarkable otherwise. 1982 was non-descript from what I've researched. Two hot, dry & sunny Augusts in 1983 & 1984, but that was made up for by four very poor Augusts, particularly 1985 & 1986. 1987 & 1988 both had some hot spells but also a lot of poor weather. 1987 had some extreme thunderstorms. Then 1989-1991 all varied warm to hot (record breaking heat at times), 1992-1994 were generally cool & poor. Then the truly extreme Augusts of 1995 & 1997 occured, but otherwise August was pretty unremarkable from 1996 to 2002. 1998 was quite warm and dry in the south but poor in the north. 1999 was cool but extremely thundery & wet so that would have been interesting to witness. Since 2006 August has been on a downward spiral. Indeed, the warmest weve reached since then is 17.6 last year. Aug. 2021 will not be breaking this spell.

Out & about around Islington & Camden this evening & what’s really striking me is how dark it is. I know the nights are drawing in, but the cloud cover is so thick & it’s very cool as well. It doesn’t get Me down too much, but it reminds Me of an October day, not mid-August.

Looking at some of the GFS output, I wonder what the chances are of ending up sub-16 this month. That includes potential downwards correction. It's all on a knife edge at the moment. Either way, a thoroughly unexceptional August here.

Here is a graph of every annual maximum temperature from 1875 to 2021 (as of now) The average of all years combined is 32.3. The graph provides insight into the variability. The latter part of the 19th century provided rapid swings in annual maxima. There were many years that topped out into the 33-35 region, particular the 1890s, but they were interspersed with much poorer years, like 1879 & 1890. Both notable, the first was a measly 26.8 & the latter only 28.3… recorded in September! Both summers were poor, but 1879 was extraordinarily poor. The first half of the 20th century saw a gradual incline in readings in the mid-thirties, though there were still years that failed to reach/exceed 30. A notable change started in 1962 & lasted until 1988. This period, bar the odd exception, saw an unusually high frequency of years that failed to reach 30, or barely scrape it. 1962-1967 is a good example. The trend shifted in 1989 with the first truly hot summer since 1983, then 1990 came & broke records. It then settled back to average between 1991 to 2002, then came the remarkable heatwaves in 2003 & 2006, but aside from these years, most years of the 2000s tended to record very normal annual maxima, this period lasting until 2014. In 2015, something very unusual started to occur. Alone, 2015, while notably hot, would not stick out too much like a sore thumb in the records, but it began a period from 2015 to 2020 that’s never been seen before in recorded history. You can see this clearly in the graph. If we assume that 2021 won’t exceed 32.2 then it will actually be ever so slightly below the all time average, therefor breaking that extraordinary run. If this happens then who’s to say if this is the start of more normal annual maxima over the next 5-20 years or just a blip. We’ll find out. Apologies if this is a little off topic, but you should know by now I love a statistical analysis! Side note: Some of the more extreme readings from pre-1940 make me wonder just what type of temperatures the same set up would give now. 1911 recorded 36.7!

Here is the table of observations at Heathrow for Jul. 1983, Aug. 1995, Jul. 2006 & Jul. 2018, our hottest months, all for comparison.

I remember averaging out every yearly maximum temperature from every year from something like 1900 & the result was exactly 32.2degC. I think this years maximum temperature so far is about 32.4 or something like that, so a very normal yearly maximum temperature for the past 100-150 years. We’ll see if this gets broken but I don’t think it will personally.

Interesting looking at the rainfall patterns setting this summer up, and after too. There was a big yoyo-ing from very wet to very dry periods that started in the late '80s. 1988-1992 generally was very dry bar the odd extreme interlude (winter 1990, Jun. 1991), then it turned very wet from the summer of 1992 until the spring of 1995. A period of very wet winters in particular. After one of the wettest winters on record (Jan. 1995 was the wettest since Jan. 1948) it really began in Apr. 1995 which was the driest nationwide since 1984. Then of course the extremely dry and hot summer. There was a brief break in Sep. 1995 which was exceptionally wet but the dry theme continued in October and never truly broke until the summer of 1997. 1996 was an exceptionally dry year in places, as well as cold. Indicative of a blocked pattern. Indeed, the only appreciably wet months in the entire year was November. We then went into an exceptionally wet period from summer 1997 until the winter of 2002/3. We've had two periods like it since (spring 2003 to autumn 2006 & winter 2010 to spring 2012). Interestingly, it's mostly been wet since late 2013. We're overdue a run of dry years though certainly not welcome. I like the rain!

Here are the daily observations for Heathrow during Aug. 1995. Consistently hot though surprisingly warm nights. I wasn’t alive at the time so looking at the charts I always assumed because of the dry and hot nature of the month that radiative cooling would be more in force, though of course this is Heathrow so it gives a feel of how hot and heavy it must have felt in the city. In comparison, here are the daily observations for Carlisle

I’ll give a proper review of this summer of this summer on Sep. 1st but up to this point it’s definitely felt very changeable. I spent June in west Kent but moved to Islington on the 30th of June. Overall so far I’ve thought that for the most part it’s been a comfortable summer. I love the rain so I’ve been a fan on the frequent downpours. The days have rarely been freezing cold or uncomfortably hot. And despite being (or at least feeling) very wet I haven’t really thought it’s seemed overly dull, though a glaring exception was the second half of June which was exceptionally full, often very wet and cool too. But July and August so far it’s felt like there’s always been sunshine in between the downpours and the amount of days where it’s been cloudy all day haven’t been all that frequent here. I have noticed people in the area remarking about how poor it was. The lady in the post office was talking about how bad it was so public opinion in this area is seemingly negative. Plus we had two monster storms on Jul. 25th and Aug. 7th. My partners are workplace flooded on both occasions.

There were a notable run of three very poor Septembers in the mid-1970s, here are some charts and stats. Any memories I would love to hear as always. The summer of 1974 had been very poor & September would get even worse. The opening week was cold & stormy with low pressure barrelling its way in from the Atlantic. No respite. The 2nd recorded a wind gust of 70mph in Plymouth. A yacht was hit with an eighth metre wave on the 2nd. There were widespread falls of over 50mm during the first week, including 80.0mm at Foffany Reservoir (Co Down) on the 2nd. The 4th saw 73.0 mm fall at Woking. The 7th was a particularly violent day; unusually there were widespread recordings of 70mph wind gusts with two men being killed in the Midlands and considerable damage to crops. A stadium roof was blown off during a match between Newcastle and Derby A brief warmer spell occurred mid-month but this was associated with some violent thunderstorms. The 12th was a particular violent day with thunderstorms scattered all across England and into S Scotland. Lightning damage was widespread at 20mm of rain fell in ten minutes at Oxford. It then reached 25C on the 16th . Cold & stormy conditions returned from the 20th. Multiple tornadoes spawned on the 21st on a cold front, particularly around Bicester. The 23rd was yet another violent day with 80mph wind gusts in the SW and falls of over 60mm. A plunge of cold air from a divebombing low was associated with flooding and freezing temperatures from the 26th to 28th. Nineteen cows had to be evacuated by helicopter in Dorset to save them from drowning. At the same time, the temperature fell to -6.0 at Braemar, the lowest U.K. reading in September since 1942. A max of just 8C in the Midlands on the 27th. . Overall Sep. 1974 was very cold and very wet (12.1 CET, 152.6mm EWP), the wettest since the remarkably wet Sep 1918. Plymouth recorded almost 220mm. Unlike 1974, 1975 featured a hot and dry summer, with the hottest August on record at the time, a stark contrast. Unlike the previous year, this September started out relatively quiet and even got quite warm; multiple readings of 24-25C in the SE on the 8th. All change thereafter. The first breakdown came on the 10th and introduced heavy rain and thunderstorms between then and the 12th. As this low tracked along southern England on the 13th/14th it brought flooding and exceptionally cold temperatures. Central London recorded a maximum of 10C on the 14th, 9C in the SE. t the same time, Southampton had its wettest day of the century. 91mm at Margate and widespread 75mm across Kent and surrounding areas. A destructive tornado destroyed glass in Sussex. Then cold Artic air shot temperatures as low as -6.2 at Dalwhinnie. -3 in the SE. Another stormy spell from the 20th onwards. 100mm of rain at Honister Pass in Cumbria on the 24th, classed as ‘exceptional’. Readings of 80mph winds recorded on the 27th. Overall it was much warmer than Sep. 1974 with just average temperatures, but the north was cool and the south slightly warmer than average. Nationally it was the driest of the three Septembers, but C/SE England recorded in excess of 300% normal rainfall in places. (13.5 CET, 106mm EWP I needn’t write much about the summer of 1976 as 99.9% of you already know EXACTLY what that summer was like. The great drought was beginning to break with a thundery spell at the end of August, but for a time it turned dry and fine again. Indeed, early September was fine and dry for a time with warm days and chilly nights. 25C was recorded at Saint Helier on the 7th. There was a remarkable turnaround by the 9th. The onslaught began on the 9th and never really ended. The 11th was a very violent day. There were a number of places scattered across North Wales and north-eastern England which recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 120 mm. In Cumbria, there was a gust in excess of 100 mph on the same day. Shortly afterwards it turned cold and even frosty in places The rest of the month turned quite a bit warmer with winds from the south, but this was associated with more unsettled weather. Torrential rain from thunderstorms gave severe flooding in Polperro the night of 24th/25th, a man was swept away. Over 80mm fell in 3 hours in Glasgow on the 28th. It was also very dull. Edinburgh had its dullest September since records began and much of E. Scotland was sunless from the 20th onward. Overall, extremely wet but with temperatures close to average. It was part of a remarkably wet autumn after an extended drought. (13.4 CET, 150.8mm) Very long post but it came in my head so I thought I’d do it. All info comes from Met Office Monthly Weather Report Documents and Trevor Harley . A lesson that while regarded as a quaint and quiet month nowadays, September can still pack a punch.

May was spot on and June, while I got it the wrong way round, wasn’t too bad of a prediction either, though that depends on location. Living in the SE I can definitely say it was a month or two halves! The rest so far has been pretty poor, though perhaps August is following suit…

16.0 and 99mm

15.5 and 127mm

Was thinking this a few days ago when everyone was (seemingly) raving over a warm & dry first ten days to July... I just had this gut feeling that the blocking would force low pressures over and to the south of the UK, despite not showing it, it just made sense. The past month has been giving me serious 2007 vibes, and while I have no proof the rest of the summer will go that way, I do think it's an option. Blocking with lows forced south can be a hard pattern to break out of, though with what looks to be quite hot weather to our south I would argue that that's not so much the case as in other years. I leave for a two week holiday at the moment & it's looking like the weather could be decidely wet and cloudy. Oh, well!

In the past ten days or so sunshine has been fleeting. Indeed only in the past few days have any proper sunny spells occured. Yesterday evening was beautiful, some impressive pink cloud formations albeit chilly. From the 17th to 22nd there was no sunshine at all. Even after that, cloud has never been that far away. Wish I had a sunshine recorder as the second-half of this month has been impressively dull. I often go on walks and some footpaths are impassible due to mud. Got a little better with some drier days but back to bog after the next few days it seems!

Despite a dry first half it seems like it's been very wet, cool & dull ever since the 17th, & now today's rain is here & there's more to come! Wouldn't be surprised if it turns into a wet month across the southeast. Indeed the ground is very moisture laden round here. I imagine temperatures in the southeast will come out relatively close to average as well. A lesson that a good month is not promised even up to the middle of it. However, I quite enjoy this weather. Espescially living in a tiny brick house which is a heat trap. Further north a completely different story. Into July, I can't help but feel with heights to our north that low pressure may try and undercut and turn us into a 2007 style summer spell of weather, but that's a long way off.

I do think we are still capable of such a summer month & would love to experience it for sheer interest purposes

35.6C in Southhampton on the 28th. Rounds up to 36C if you look at it that way. The equal highest ever June temperature ever recorded with Jun. 1957.

The interesting thing is that the uppers were relatively unremarkable. It was a combination of dry ground and strong sunshine and day after day of heat that culminated in the 35.9C in early July. I've seen people say about how nowadays the same setup would produce 40C but I'm not quite sure about that. The notable thing about 1976 was its consistency. Nowadays our very hot temperatures are recorded in short bursts of heat from blink and you miss it southerlies. None of that in 1976. I can only imagine how pleasant it must have felt in the dry air. And how bad Jun. 1977 must of felt in comparison!

I'm a little late but a browse through the events that happened in Barking remind me of the most severe storm I've ever witnessed in my life so far, the absolute madness of the 25th of June, 2016. Jun. 2016 had already been a very wet, dull & thundery month for many, and up in NW Kent it was no exception. We'd had a couple rounds of thundery weather at many times during that month, but none akin to what was coming. The 24th had been an almost dry day, bar a light shower. Indeed it was a restbite from the storms of the 22nd/23rd which did give us thunder/lighting + torrential rain. I remember it starting out normal but with showers breaking out on the radar quite quickly through the afternoon. I was returning home & the sky was becoming very dark and ominious with a very still feel, like it was about to go off. Indeed once I returned home the heavens started to open. That was the beginning of about an hour long deluge that remains unmatched to this day. I've never seen rain like it. Living in New Ash Green at the time meant it was a elevated area so surface water flooding was never much of an issue, but then came the purple on the radar. It was a backbuilding storm so whenever it seemed like the whites/purples would move away it just kept coming back. Water started to pour down the path and wash against the house & the road quickly became a river. Shortly after the rain turned to hail and left behind what can only be described as chunks of an iceberg which lasted until the end of the day. The temperature during this storm plummeted to around 7C which is exceptionally low for late-June. The entire time the loudest thunder you could imagine seeing as the storm was centered overtop. Eventually the severest of the rain passed but it kept rumbling on and thunder and lightning kept on during the afternoon. The next day all the local area was covered in branches and leaves from the sheer force of the rain and hail. I remember seeing reports of nearby areas that also recieved flooding. Since it's rural a lot of the water had a chance to soak into the surrounding fields but I imagine just how bad it could have been if it hit a urban area. Wish I had some pictures of this incredible storm. In terms of rain, only August 9th, 2017 and July 20th, 2019 compare in intensity. Ironically, after June was through it then turned very dry and mostly remained so until the (locally) extremely wet summer of 2017. Anyone got any recollections of severe storms during this day, spell or month?

A comment underneath clearly states this isn't in the UK.

I would argue that 2015 and 2017 would perhaps qualify as 'poor', no? take away the heat spike of Jul. 1 and most of the summer was very cool (at times cold), wet and dull. Jul. & Aug. 2017 were both wet and August was particularly cool.

Just found this old thread by accident. 2015 was no exception to the rule with the utterly remarkabke, bafflinf & disturbing warmth of Nov./Dec. 2015. The flooding of Dec. 5th tied to it. One of the sunniest Aprils on record, then extreme heat on the Jul. 1 only to be followed by an exceptionally cool second-half with the coldest end to July since 1920. Then the coldest September for 22 years, followed by a remarkably warm end to October which leads into the aforementioned... What will 2025 bring? Long way off yet, models struggling with the second half of June as it is!

Still thinking a much cooler second half of June is in order. Would take something pretty cold to get to my guess, but anyone who's in the low 15s I reckon could be in for a chance still. 15-17 the name of the game I feel. Of course it could go into a Jun. 1997/2004/2007 type pattern