LetItSnow!

Curiosity strikes me as I wonder what we’d be looking at if a GEM scenario came off. Temperatures in the CET zone will be falling away quite quickly this week. I know some were worried about cloud but I think in the south the high pressure doesn’t look to be the type to bring in excessive damp, drizzly, frost inhibiting conditions. You tend to see that when there’s a more westerly/northwesterly element. I’ve been caught out before thinking a month was going cold (February 2021 ) only to not, but could we be seeing the coolest December since 2010 unfolding? It wouldn’t take much. Watch this space!

IIRC the Met had recently come out with a statement saying that snow would become a rarity shortly prior to this event taking place. Must have been quite awkward! The cold spell actually came off the back of an exceptionally mild & wet first half to December, which is why the month still recorded a CET of 5.8. It would go on to give way to a generally chilly period from January to April. The winter of 2000/2001 reminds me somewhat of the winter just gone (from observation, yours truly happened to be born in February 2001!). I’m reminded of a chilly but not quite cold winter that got more severe the further north you wore. Indeed across Scotland I think winter 2000/2001 was quite harsh with some severe snowfall in early February. Overall a winter of repeated cold attacks but never anything sustained.

Still looks like WAA pumping up into Greenland. Need to wait for the trough over Scandinavia then it would start to move north imo.

Only got to wait until the 15th/16th for some more seasonable weather down here so not too phased about this yucky mild spell coming up. Bring on chilly anticylonic weather, boo mild.

Who needs models

The words I just automatically uttered are deff not family friendy... will refrain excitement until the time is closer but a more interesting look to the start of winter than many a year.

As posted before, the mild uppers under an anticyclone wouldn't necessarily mean mild at surface. Not a northerly wind though, if we're picking hairs it looks like a very, very slight NE breeze. If that.

Also to note; before we even get past day 10/11, even with mild air aloft high pressure at this point in December will be chilly at least. It depends on cloud cover & moisture within the high pressure cell (see January 2020 for a misty murky high). December 2006 is a good example of inversion cold. Despite being a mild month the Christmas period featured dense fog, freezing fog even. I read there were 90+ hours of continuous frost. Whilst I’m not forecasting that, I’m reminding some posters that upper air temperatures won’t be the key to forecasting temperatures under an anticyclone. It could be a bit colder than suggested at long range. I’d at least expect seasonably chilly weather with night frosts, always furthest south.

The first two charts highlighted would be anything but mild at the surface at least. Cold, how so depending on fog. Lots of frost, sparkling winter sunshine... Would be very nice actually.

Sounds like a mixture of 1817 and 2012 on steroids. Out of interest, your year would average 8.50C and 1440mm. 2012 and 2000 would look quite dry in comparison.

I usually see these type of threads started every year. Always a bit of fun. Didn’t see one yet so thought I’d start one. Get your crystal balls at hand!

A quick reminder about upper air temperatures not needing to be especially cold to provide snowfall. This is the chart for the 10th/11th of December, 2017. At the time I was living in New Ash Green (NW Kent) which admittedly is quite elevated, nonetheless with uppers around -1/-2 we recieved an absolute dumping of snow in a relatively short space of time. While lowland southern areas shouldn't get too excitied with ideas of snowmaggedons, I do think they'll be snowy surprises this winter, especially further north/elevated. You don't need bitterly cold temperatures aloft to get the goods.

Compared to the previous run, the GFS shows the centre of the low a tiny bit further south this morning. Until we get a handle of this low I’m not really focusing on any outcome in particular. Interesting chart for the 10th, potential battleground pattern taking place? It defaults back to westerly after this but as stated I'm not focusing on anything after the 8th/9th/10th until the 8th/9th/10th.

It would be helpful to post charts *if you can* instead of claiming it’s back to square 1 without anything to back it up. ??

Despite an unsettled outlook the immediate outlook doesn’t look mild at any point now and then there’s the headache of the low pressure system and what comes after that. I’ve been caught out before by thinking this but I’m not certain of a mild December but we will see…

i mean, doesn’t that prove what i just said? the message is never be too certain of the future, especially weather patterns…. you never know!

Call me easily pleased but it's nice to see such a long spell of colder than average weather even if not a snowmageddon for all. I celebrate all cooler than average weather!

Interesting output this morning with hints of a more southerly track to this dartboard low coming up... lots to be excited about. Since this is the moan thread here's my annual moan about the winter is over posts I do support the idea of a strictly model based thread that focuses on day 5-6 max with tight regulations and then another thread for more day 10/ramp type posts as I think it would be easier for those of us who only care to see what the models are up to, though I understand people have fun with it. And here's an extra point. Here's the chart for December 3, 1985 and then for February 3, 1986. Would you so bodly claim winter was over then? It's really ridiculous.

It's a crucial period of forecasting because the mild charts appearing for mid-December I feel were purely based on how this low pressure behaves and once again I don't believe they've got a good handling of it. If the low pressure tracks much further south like is being hinted today it could change the entire outlook for the rest of the month so I remain cautious. Potentially a battleground snow event setting up around the 10th with some of the output I've seen... more headaches and toy throwing ahead. All to be expected in the joys of the winter season.

12 days away... that's all I will say

For the christmas pudding an actually slightly cooler than average November, about half a degree above 1961-1990 though. A very unremarkable figure. Using the 1991-2020 figures 6 months this year have been above average and 5 below. Now to see where December takes us.

The fact that the ECM now is better for cold and the GFS is now blowing up lows and turning it milder kind of speaks volumes (At least potentially) to me. Could it be it picked the trend correctly and is now wobbling around and overestimating the cold air to our east? Heaven knows the GFS has a tendency of doing this. Models aren't used to the pattern we've got, especially against recent years, that's why this morning's GFS run isn't really concerning me at all to be honest. It will be crucial model watching in the next couple of days to see what happens. Still not buying a westerly dominated pattern just yet, but if in a few days all runs show this then we may have to bite the bullet. One interesting thing I've noticed is that even the runs that want to back the winds into the west seem to be more Artic sourced air with a southerly tracking jet stream. This is very similar to December, 1978 which a lot of people forget was exceptionally wet and never overly cold until after Christmas. Combine that with a very similar autumn and interest does grow in me! I remain positive!

No need to worry about a milder westerly spell, the Atlantic is almost as cold as the continent!

Oh dear, sounding snipy again. Let’s nip that in the bud today! I often repeat the same message over and over but it’s especially true now, you really can’t take long range stuff too seriously at the moment. The weather patterns at the moment are atypical and beyond I’d say December 5 aren’t worth looking at beyond pinpointing trends. Showing a mild chart at December 10 in late November sometimes feels a bit baity. As always I recommend using personal judgement with the charts. They’re only models, they don’t dictate the weather. If something looks unlikely then it probably is. If we do get any meaningful blocking, especially over Scandinavia/Artic regions then it usually proves more stubborn to get rid of. You usually need a very strong jet stream for that. The only potential concern I can see for that happening is those extremely cold temperatures flooding into Canada likely into early December. I think that looks very interesting in itself + the depth of cold to our east at the moment. Seems like that + better ice than we’ve had in recent years makes me feel like this winter and next might behave more like a pre-1988 one than for quite some time. But that’s getting to the realms of fantasy. Will be anticipating new model output a lot during the coming week!!!

I’m personally not too convinced of a return to much in the way of Atlantic dominated weather just yet. This weekend had its cold weather pushed back, erased, then upgraded. I think northerlies are always a pain to forecast. Definitely not sold on a return to too much in the way of mild weather unless we get to the end of the month and the pattern is still strong. And even if winds back westerly there’s nothing to say that it would last long. Indeed, the first half to December in the coldest winters usually is a period of the puzzle pieces being put together, so no downbeat feelings from me tonight. I wouldn’t be bold enough to say “expect cold upgrades” but definitely don’t discount them either.