LetItSnow!

Excerpts from the Met Office monthly reports + charts January 1979: "Mostly very cold and snowy, with freezing fog at times" | -3.0degC below average, 92% average rainfall This was the coldest January over the UK since 1963, and since the early 1940s in places. The 1st was a very cold day everywhere with almost the entire country failing to exceed 0degC; Exeter had a maximum of -5degC. After a brief milder interlude on the 6th & 7th, the cold returned with a vengance. Extremely low minima occurred occured at some high-level stations in Scotland at the end of this period, temperatures falling below -20degC between the 12th & 14th. At Carnwath (Strathclyde) the minimum of -24.6degC on the night of the 12th/13th was the lowest in the UK since 1955 and the second lowest since 1895. Unusually for such a cold month, "rainfall" (mostly melted snowfall) was mostly average to above-average in most places away from the Borders. Wintry showers fell often but there were also prolonged spells of snow, notably in the Channel Islands during the 4th/5th, in northern districts the 9th/10th and 20th/21st, and generally most areas during the final week. Snow was heavy at times and lay for many days, owing to the low temperatures. Gale force winds caused considerable drifts of both drifting and lying snow. At least 20cm of level snow in most places, and undrifted totals of around 50cm were achieved in the north. As for sunshine, apart from eastern coasts, parts of W Scotland & NI it was generally a very sunny month; Torbay recieved its sunniest January on record at the time with 176% of the average sunshine (105.1 hours) February 1979: "Mostly cold and snowy, but milder later" | -1.9degC below average, 60% average rainfall This was another cold month; temperatures generally averaged between 1 and 3degC below average. The 8th/9th was an extremely cold night at Lagganlia (Scottish Highlands) with a low of -16.4degC. Extremely cold easterly winds brought very low temperatures on the 14th/15th, the entire country failed to exceed freezing. The 14th saw a high of -3degC at Tynemouth with 50mph winds and heavy snow. The following day saw major drifts in the east and many places were cut off. Much of SE England remained below freezing from the 14th to the 20th. The final week saw temperatures lift and therefor the month wasn't a record-breaker, though even then the temperatures only lifted to near-normal. Rainfall totals (mostly of metled snow) were generally well-above normal in the south but well-below normal in the north; E Scotland was remarkably dry with just 21% of the average rainfall, Abroath (Tayside) recorded a mere 2mm. Despite most of the souths rainfall being of melted snow, there were thunderstorms in late-February at times. It was sunny in the north but quite dull across England & Wales, especially the SE. March 1979: "Mostly cold and snowy, but milder later" | -1.6degC below average, 183% average rainfall A cold month despite a mild start. The warmest temperature of the month was on the 2nd, a very tame 15.7degC recorded at Achany (Highland Region). Generally mild weather prevailed until the 11th, then it became very cold. The Scottish Highlands recorded an exceptional -16.5degC on the night of the 18th/19th. It remained generally cold bar a brief mild spell on the 25th, with temperatures reaching the mid-teens in the south. While it was generally a cold month everywhere, it was particularly cold in Scotland & NI, they had their coldest March since 1969. Rainfall was well-above average with England & Wales alone recording 222% of the average rainfall, making it the wettest March since 1947. NE England recorded over 300% of the average and Tyne and Wear region recorded over 400%!!! 176.2mm fell at Honister Pass (Cumbria) in 24 hours in Cumbria. Continuous snowfall in the Newcastle area between the 16th and 19th accumulated to 45cm at Gosport. Heavy falls also occured across the Midlands. The south also had snow at times but it never layed for overly long. E & S Scotland saw 20cm from a heavy band of snow on the 20th/21st. NI, E Scotland and the Western Isles had an exceptionally sunny March with 152% of the average at Tiree. Elsewhere it tended to be quite dull, especially in the east. April 1979: "Mostly cool and changeable" | -0.9degC below average, 120% average rainfall A very warm Easter in an otherwise quite cold month. The first ten days of the month were often cold with wintry showers but then southerly winds over Easter brought the warmest Easter in London since 1949; 23.5degC at the London Weather Centre on the 15th. After this temperatures fell back and apart from a warm day on the 28th, much of April was quite cold. It was generally quite wet and dull, wettest relative to average the further south you went. The SE had 144% of its average rainfall; generally speaking, elsewhere totals were within 30% of normal. A dull April, parts of NE Scotland having its dullest on record to date. May 1979: "Mostly cool and unsettled, with snow at first" | -1.7degC below average, 138% average rainfall A cold month, particularly in the west & in NI with anomalies of over 2degC below normal. Generally the first ten days were exceptionally cold with northerly winds bringing rain, even snow. -7.1degC was recorded at Altnaharra on the 4th. It warmed up for a time mid-month and London reached 27.5degC on the 14th, but by the 16th it had turned cooler again and remained so for the rest of the month. Apart from NI and the extreme NW, it was an exceptionally wet May, especially in a line from Tyne and Wear to Dorset, the latter recording over 300% rainfall. This culiminated an extremely wet spring across much of England and Wales. Widespread thunderstorms on the 30th gave 61mm in just over 5 hours from 0800GMT at Beaminster, later that day 40.4mm fell in 50 minutes at Wokingham. Snow showers and even longer spells occured widely between the 1st and 9th, with wintry falls as far south as the Channel Islands. Snow cover was unusually persistent on the high ground of N England & Scotland, with the tops of many Scottish mountains remaining snow covered all month. Generally quite dull though the SE actually managed a decently sunny month. June 1979: "Mostly unsettled, thundery at times" | -0.2degC below average, 73% average rainfall Very slightly below average temperatures overall, with quite a variable theme to the weather. A warm start, with 29degC at Corpach (Highland Region) on the 3rd, then variable until another warm spell from the 17th to 20th that saw temperatures widely into the mid-20s. Temperatures fell back to normal after this, if not a little below and some parts of Scotland recorded ground frost. It was generally quite dry overall but with regional variability due to the thundery nature of the first-half of the month. Edinburgh recorded its driest June since records began in 1896 abd parts of Lincolnshire and Clwyd less than 20% of the average. In contrast, some parts of Scotland and isolated patches across the UK recorded over 150% of the average rainfall. Big storms on the 7th, 12th and 13th. 31.3mm fell in 43 minutes near West Heath (Birmingham on the 7th. Near Glasgow, over an inch fell in 30 minutes on the 12th. Most notably, 29.5mm fell in 10 minutes at Embsay Reservoir on the 13th starting 1333GMT, with serious flooding in Skipton. A tornado struck parts of east Berkshire and south Hertfordshire on the 24th. Windsor saw notable damages to property and many trees were uprooted in Kings Langsley. Quite a dull month away from Scotland where it was rather sunny. NI suffered its dullest June since 1966. July 1979: "Generally dry, but wet in NW Scotland: warm at times" | +0.1degC above average, 63% average rainfall This was a very non-descript month. Overall, temperatures were practically bang-on average: slightly warmer than average across England, slightly cooler than average across Scotland. There were no great heatwaves despite an abundance of high pressure: the hottest temperature of the month was a modest 30.3degC recorded somewhere in the south on the 27th. It was extremely dry in many areas, with some parts of the south coast not recieving any rain until the 28th. Parts of East Anglia recorded as low as 20% their average rainfall. In contrast, the far NW was quite wet with over 160% the average. Any other places above were due to severe thunderstorms on te 28th/29th: nearly two inches fell in 42 minutes starting 1518GMT at Bradwell Abbey (Buckinghamshire). A violent thunderstorm struck a Skegness beach on the 28th, hitting a group of people and sadly killing a 3 year old girl. Despite an abundance of dry weather it was generally a dull month again. Tiree had its dullest July since records began in 1927. August 1979: "Mostly unsettled and cool; gales around mid-month" | -0.8degC below average, 113% average rainfall Mostly cool with most areas around a degree below average, some isolated pockets down to 1.5degC below average. This was the coolest August of the 1970s. There was an absence of any prolonged warm weather, though the 12th and the closing days gave some warm weather: 27.0degC was the warmest temperature of the month, being recorded on the 30th in Hertfordshire. However, this same period also saw some unusually cold nights with -0.7degC recorded at Eskdalemuir the night before. The month was most memorable for the Fastnet Storm during the Fastnet Yacht Race. A gale occurred on the 13-14th, as yachts were rounding the Fastnet rock. Hundreds of yachts were lost, with the loss of 15 lives. Wind gusts to Force 12. 58 mph recorded in London, 85mph at Hartland Point, north Devon. Land fatalities too. Generally it was a wet month in most places, though varying in extremes depending where you went. Lerwick had its wettest August on record. In contrast, the Greater London region recorded about half its average. Big storms on the 3rd and on the 9th, 25mm hailstones fell in SW London. Sunshine was close to average overall in all districts. September 1979: "Mostly dry and sunny" | -0.5degC below average, 65% average rainfall Quite a cool month though few areas saw a deviation bigger than 1.0degC below. Quite warm in the first-half albeit with variable interludes, cooler and more autumnal in the second-half with frosts. 26.4degC recorded on the 6th yet a low of -6.1degC the night of the 14th/15th. Away from the far NW where it was quite changeable, it really was a very dry month. Sheffield saw only 19mm all month and generally much of the SE as well as parts of Wales and SE Scotland saw less than 25% of the average rainfall. Only the Shetland Isles saw any real wet weather with double the average. Away from NI, much of the UK experienced a fine September with well-above average sunshine. St. Andrews, Fife, recorded 175.7 hours of sunshine, the sunniest since records began in 1913. October 1979: "Mostly dry and sunny" | +0.6degC above average, 110% average rainfall A mild month due to a warm first half. Many afternoons reached 21degC in this time and the night of the 8th/9th was one of the warmest October nights on record in many places: Birmingham recorded a "minimum" of 16.8degC. The second-half was close to average and eventually became quite cold during the closing days with frost. It was generally dry in the south but wet in the NW, continuing the theme of September: parts of the SE had as little as 50% of their average. Where it was dry it was also sunny: Greater London had around 130% of the average sunshine. In contrast, Scotland was very dull and in Lerwick only had 41 hours, the dullest since 1945. November 1979: "Unsettled; wet in the NW" | Average, 131% average rainfall Temperatures varied throughout the month: it started mild in all districts with 18degC recorded on the 3rd along the Moray Firth. It quickly turned colder on the 7th and stayed that way for the next ten days. This period was very frosty with a low of -11.6degC at West Linton (Borders) on the night of the 12th/13th, even Poole fell as low as -6.0degC. Snow widely fell on the 14th/15th. Milder air moved in on the 17th and the rest of the month stayed that way; exceptionally mild end with 17.9degC at Hawarden Bridge (Clwyd) on the 29th. Away from the NW it was a dry/very dry month: Once again the SE recorded well-below average rainfall, finishing off a very dry autumn there. In contrast, the NW was exceptionally wet. NI had its second wettest November on record. Glasgow had its wettest November since 1939. 185.2mm of rain fell at Honister Pass on the 25th, leading to serious flooding. December 1979: "Wet and windy" | +0.4degC above average, 143% average rainfall Generally a mild month, especially in the first-half, colder later. The first-half was often very stormy. Edinburgh recorded a gust of 110mph on the 4th. More severe gales, this time across the south, swept through from the 11th to the 17th; over 1000 trees across Cornwall were felled. The latter day saw two women die in accidents caused by strong winds and a BBC radio transmitter mast collapsed under the strength of the winds. More deaths later in the month on the 27th due to strong winds and heavy rain. Very mild with temperatures of over 16degC recorded in several places in Gwent and the SW in the first-half. Colder weather spread in in time for Christmas and on the night of the 29th/30th the temperature fell to -10.7degC at Lagganlia (Highland Region). Extremely wet in many places away from W Scotland & NI with nearer-average rainfall. The 26th/27th brought torrential rain leading to extensive flooding. 223.4mm of rain fell at Dartmoor in two days. Snow fell often on the peaks of the Scottish mountains where snow cover lay all month, otherwise laying snow didn't last long and many places saw no snow/snow cover all month. Despite the stormy weather it was a sunny month in most places, particularly in the second-half. Christmas Day and New Year's Eve were amongst the sunniest days of the entire month. Annual 1979: | -0.8degC below average, 108% average rainfall

It must have been a rain-to-snow event. Cold sub minus-5 air was well established across the country, depends where you were at the time.

February 1978 was a cold and snowy month that featured one of the most intense blizzards in recorded history. The month started with temperatures close to average - westerly winds dominated until the 6th. Gales on the 1st/2nd sent ships adrift. Changes began on the 7th as winds started to blow in from the continent. Freezing fog becamee difficult to clear and temperatures started to plummet. The 9th began a four day streak of temperatures remaining below zero. The C.E.T. from the 8th to the 21st averaged -0.4. Snowfall totals during this period included 15cm across Kent from snow showers on the 9th, 20-25cm at Dundee and Edinburgh by the 12th (the heaviest snowfall there since 1955) and undrifted snowfall totals between 50-80cm in NE England/SE Scotland by the 13th. The largest totals were yet to come - the Atlantic began advancing forward on the 15th allowing weather fronts to track across southern England, instantly turning to snow as they hit the frigid air. Unusually, the cold block held the mild air at bay. It was as the block held the Atlantic low pressure systems at bay when the lowest temperatures occured. Across deep snow cover, the temperature fell to -21degC at Braemar on the 15th; -17degC was also achieved in the city of Edinburgh on the 17th. However, it would get colder. The second advancement of low pressure in the Atlantic lead to perhaps the most intense blizzards in UK history on the 18th/19th. The block allowed low pressure to undercut and draw in gale force easterly winds filled with moisture. This lead to apocalyptic blizzards across the southwest, a place usually sheltered from cold and snow. Level snow accumulated to depths of around 60cm at Dartmoor and Exmoor and 85cm at Nettlecomb in Somerset, though drifts of up to 6 metres were reported widely across Somerset & Dorset. Elsewhere, Cardiff saw 34cm with 8 metre drifts. Many lives were sadly lost in the exceptional blizzard. The coldest temperature came on the final day of the freeze; -22degC at Keith (Grampian Region) on the 20th. Also on the 20th came heavy freezing rain in the south, adding to an already wintry scene. After this the cold relented and the low pressures in the Atlantic could finally pass through. In a complete twist, the rest of February 1978 was very mild and 15degC was recorded in London on the 23rd. The rapid thaw caused a great deal of flooding. However, some remote parts of the SW remained cut off from civilization until the 24th. The rest of the month featured a mixture of mild, cloudy and foggy weather and occaisonal thunderstorms brought in on southerly winds. Overall, February 1978 has a C.E.T. of 2.8, the coldest February since 1969. A very mild final week meant the month wasn't overall that cold in the record books, similar to January 1982. The U.K. wasn't alone this month as a ferocious Nor'easter gave a historic dumping of snow across the east coast of the USA from the 5th to the 7th (similar to the recent Nor'easter across Boston, January 2022); the second in a trio cluster of extremely cold winters across NA from 1976-77 to 1978-1979; you can read about that extensively elsewhere. Share your memories of this month!

Interesting about 2020 as how wet I remember it being that winter I never remember it feeling that dull or grim - indeed a lot of mild, wet & stormy winters often end up being sunnier than average. I think this is due to the frontal rainfall often clearing to sunshine and showers. Winter 2014 is a good example. Only wet winter months with permanent SW winds often end up feeling really dull, like December 2015 or December 2018.

I don’t think you understand my point - it wasn’t cold, but the synoptics today would produce at the very least a very mild February today. 3.9, no chance.

Browsing the Met Offices' Monthly Weather Reports along with the charts at Wetterzentrale here are some weather events from 1980 The winter seemed to be rather non-descript with a cold January offset by a very mild February - March was a degree colder than February. An easterly spell gave drifting snow across the Pennines and generally heavy falls across the north from the 16th to the 24th. April 1980 & May 1980 were both very anticyclonic months and exceptionally dry in places and also very sunny. The description given sounds like a less-exceptional version of April 2020 & May 2020 16 April 1980 brought widespread readings into the low-twenties Mid-May 1980 was noted for an extrodinary spell of sunshine in which from the 9th to the 19th it was virtually cloudless. April & May 1980 were exceptionall dry & sunny across Scotland, as well as warm. May 1980 saw maximum temperatures 2C above average, though nighttime temperatures were a little below average. The south missed out during both of these months however, both having near-normal temperatures and unimpressive sunshine totals. A very easterly spring I imagine with high pressure often being centred to the north. However, like most summers after dry springs, summer 1980 turned out to be a shocker for fans of warmth and sunshine. The fine weather held until the 4th, with 29C recorded at many stations across England. This would be the last day many would exceed 21C until very late-June. June 1980 was exceptionally wet and also rather cool. There were an unusual amount of severe thunderstorms. It was the wettest June since 1879 across England and 1872 across Scotland. NW areas that had barely any rainfall for the past two months were hit with over 300% of their average rainfall. Unsurprisingly, it was also very, very dull - the dullest June of the century so far in NI. 5 June 1980 was a deadly day - 3 people were killed by lightning on this day. Flash flooding occurred elsewhere. More severe thunderstorms battered the country mid-month. Exceptionally, 116.1mm of rain fell in Sevenoaks in one hour (!) on 25 June 1980 July 1980 & August 1980 remained dull and damp throughout. 20C was a rare feat during the first-half of July 1980 as northerly winds dominated and brought further severe thunderstorms. Negative anomalies ran almost 2degC below in East Anglia. August 1980 wasn't as cool, but was every bit as dull with Lerwick having record-low sunshine. Temperatures were boosted by the mild nights associated with the cloud cover. 1 August 1980 saw record rainfall across NI. 7 August 1980 brought torrential rain across East Anglia - Norfolk saw totals of 100mm+ fall in just 5 hours. The autumn of 1980 also brought some notable weather events of its own. September 1980 proved to be a warm month - the warmest month of the year in places! NI had its warmest September since 1959. However, the month was quite unsettled. Most notably was a band of torrential rain and thunderstorms that gave a deluge to Kent on the 19th and 20th. 37mm fell in just an hour at Manston. October started with false promises - 21degC at Elmstone in Kent on 1 October 1980. Generally though, October 1980 was a very wet and cold month. The most interesting weather event came in November. November 1980 was an extremely topsy-turvy month with both exceptionally snowy, cold weather and very mild weather. Early-November 1980 was exceptionally cold with easterly winds bringing unprecedented snowfall in Jersey for the time of year - up to 8cm on the 5th. Meanwhile the rest of the country saw more in the way of snow showers. This cleared and then the weather switched to the complete opposite - the 14th to 24th was exceptionally mild with readings of 15+C recorded on most days. Cold northerly winds set in at the end of November, so overall the temperature was pretty much exactly average everywhere, down to the wild swings. To make things more extreme, November 1980 was extremely wet in the far NW and very dry in the SE. Stornoway at the time had its wettest November on record. By December 1980 the weather had become much less noteworthy, being a mostly mild December, quite wet in the north, dry and fine in the south. Not the top of the list of extreme years but enough for it to be saved from the "dull" category. I imagine the very rough summer must have felt double bad in Scotland after such a fine spring. I hope this jogs any weather memories you may have from 1980!

I would argue that if the same synoptics had occured in the 19th century or even first-half of the 20th century then this would have returned quite a cold month. Almost any winter anticyclone was a guaranteed bringer of frost and dense fog - that just doesn't happen anymore. I think it could explain some (though not all) of the decadal rise in the winter average temperature. Even the mildest winters then would have seen at least some frost and fog. See my old post on February 1891 as an example of that.

Problem with that is that's exactly what we were saying in March 2012 Though we are overdue a very dry year. Perhaps apart from regionally, there hasn't been one since 2011.

Temperature-wise, January 2022 will be a very normal month for the modern-era. Chance a tad below if it comes under 4.7.

May 2008 I believe was a wet to exceptionally wet one in the south but across Scotland, particularly the far north, it was extremely dry.

Perhaps the latter is because of a more southerly tracking jet stream that aided in colder winters and cooler summers, Each of these years brought colder episodes in the winters (bar 07-08) and cool, wet summers. Since 2014 we’ve seen the jet stream more positioned over and to our north, aiding mild winters and hot spells in summers, therefor more inclined for drought than flooding. That said, Autumn 2007, May 2008, September 2009 and April 2010 all brought some very dry weather - albeit with some variability in some of these months.

If the anticyclonic pattern holds and the ideas of a return to westerlies is pushed back/cancelled then we are probably looking at our driest January since 2006 or perhaps 1997. I suspect 1997 would be more locally. Perhaps another exceptionally dry month to add recent years. I've noticed almost every year since 2014 has had at least one very dry month. September 2014, April 2015, July & October 2016 (locally), April & the autumn of 2017, June & July 2018, spring 2020 & most recently April & November 2021. Some of them are more locally exceptional than others but they seem to be happening more frequently than exceptionally wet months.

Mid-February to mid-March of 2005 often had blocked synoptics and averaged really quite cold, but a mild first half to February and a complete collapse of the blocking in the second half of March meant it wasn't really seen in the C.E.T. It was probably the most consistent spell of easterly winds since February 1986. I imagine if the same synoptics had occured many, many years ago it would have been quite severely cold. In the mild 2000s, alas no. Perhaps the teaser-teaser to what would come a few years later.

On the flipside, down here in London this is turning into one of the nicest Januaries I can remember, especially after a foul December. Apart from the mild start, it's generally been seasonable to cold since the 4th. The past week has seen unbroken sunshine apart from a short cloudier interlude 2 days ago, which even then had some bits of blue. Lots of cold nights as well. Memories of January 2017 but I don't think even that was this dry and fine. On the anomaly maps I expect this month may come out cold in the south, mild in the north. One thing I have been thinking though is that if the dry theme continues into February then it will probably lead to a more unsettled spring/early summer as patterns don't usually last for months on end without alterations. Just like how very warm springs rarely lead to thoroughly hot summers. Anyways, back to the present... beautiful month so far. In winters like last year, 2020, 2016 etc where January was so depressingly dull, mild and dank, this is a Godsend. I can tell because usually January drags on but it's flown by for me. May the sunshine continue!

Knowing how things can get, I support all the amusement possible... within reason

Considering the chances of actually getting frosty nights and freezing fog are better than the failure in December I'm not banking on a notably mild January. Freezing fog/cold nights will drag the CET down sharp and then there's always the chance of downwards corrections too. That combined with a November 2021-esque downwards correction will send the temperature down. However, you're completely right about the final week. It could be the difference between landing in the 3s (something entirely possible), the 4s (my guess at the moment), or even 5+ (hoping isn't the case). Hoping for anything at or below the 3s... I'm a dreamer! Two consecutive colder than average Januaries would be nice. Not a tall order against the 1991-2020 average of 4.7.

A look at the model output & Gav on YouTube shows a very dry outlook ahead, especially for England & Wales. Sub 50mm Januaries in recent years include 1997 (16.5mm), 2000 (46.4mm), 2006 (31.9mm) and 2019 (47.1mm). With barely any measurable rainfall in the next week to ten days it looks like we could be heading for the driest January for either just 3 years or even 16 years. All down to how the final 10 days goes, and it is only the 10th. Completely the opposite to January 2021 which was extremely wet (146mm).

No one thinks it's going to verify but if a -20 northerly shows of course people are gonna post about it! It's fun to fantasise sometimes

I’m a relatively young member being 20 years old. My first memories of weather only begin in the mid-2000s

To be fair, it's true. Set the scene, it's February 2008. We'd just gone through 10 years of warmer than average winters with cold spells a rarity (if you count 1995 & 1996 as flukes then you could argue 16 years). I wasn't old enough to even use the internet properly at the time but I can only imagine the atmosphere on weather forums at the time. I've looked at old NW posts from 2006-2007 and I don't think anyone believed a cold winter was ever going to happen again, and to be fair you couldn't blame them. The freak warm spell from May 2006 to June 2007 was still fresh in memory and seriously challenged any expectations of normality in our climate (a spell still unbeaten up to now, imo.). But then the winter of 2009 came, not a severe one by any means but it was cold. Then the following winter came, then the December to remember, then the other cold spells of that time (also with cool summer periods frequent too). The point is that there isn't much of a difference to what people were saying then and what they're saying now. We've seen record cold spells occur across the world in the past five years, even in the UK in 2018. We know it can still happen. Scandinavia has been having it quite cold so far. Even April and May 2021 challenged our ideas of never having appreciably colder than normal months in the warmer parts of the year. The point I'm making is that to write off the rest of the decade, century, heck even the rest of January, is nonsensical. We know things are different now, but I do not believe we are incapable of very cold spells or even a very cold winter. It's gonna happen eventually, maybe even soon. Whether it'll be a 1963 redux.... prefer a1684 myself

January 1999 also had an exceptionally mild spell like the one just gone with 16+C recorded on the 6th. It was the second January in a row with a spell of record high temperatures.

Become a norm? It’s practically been the norm since December 1987 with very few exceptions

I did not state it wasn't, just that 1. pattern matching isn't really worth it in terms of forecasting and 2. as stated there may have been occurances of it happending before 1659. A quick glance through the C.E.T. data since 1659 shows a fair lot of cold winters following Septembers in the 15s, the one caveat being that quite a few happened in the 17th and 18th century. As you get to the 16s indeed you don't really get any so far. I don't think it should be used as an excuse to blindly believe that winter is over or that a cold winter is impossible. There is a trend there, but trends aren't definitive. There's a difference between acknowledging a trend and automatically writing off a winter which some people have a habit of doing. I'd be interested in further researching past Septembers pre-1659 to see if it happened then too but data is so sparse. Interesting nonetheless!

I think the issue with the hot September theory is that there may very well be some trend that coincides with with warm patterns in September which leads to mild winters but with reliable records only going back to 1659 it's really not enough to say. It could just be a unusual coincedence like the poor summers in years ending with an 8 - a pattern that broke in 2018. Who knows how many warm Septembers there could have been in the thousands of years before 1659 that had cold winters afterwards. I won't digress further as its the model thread.

out of interest, how many cold (say sub 2.5) januaries have their been with exceptionally mild starts. 1917 springs to mind but no many others i can think of.