LetItSnow!

Until this mess we're still in is sorted I'm not buying anything that points to exceptional mild OR cold into the start of 2022 so not worth bothering with yet.

Read this without having a look at the date stamp and thought it was for Christmas Day and almost had a heart attack!

I have a feeling we might not know what's happening until the 23rd... even Christmas Eve! Feels like this chase has been going on for years!

I could be wrong but I do feel like there has been times where the GFS initially brings in a signal then drops it, the others pick up on it aggresively for it to ultimately somewhere in the middle or even back to cold/cool. It could be that the ECM and UKMO are being too pushy with the mild air. This is an extremely unusual set up, mind, so it's really hard for the models to know how to work this low. Def not game over but also remaining sensible. I'm aware that where I am chances of a White Christmas are low but I'm happy for anyone who gets one, my focus is on a locked in cold pattern though and I still see favourable possibilities of this. People like to trash models, like saying the GFS is trash, ECM is crap blah blah but I don't buy into it. Sure, some have better verification stats but ECM has been wrong before. I'm pretty sure UKMO has too. They all get it right sometimes and get it wrong too. I think it's important a lot of us remember to stay calm and remember it's just weather... and even if it does end up mild and crap, there's probably a lot of people out there who wish their weather could be that boring.

IIRC December 1993 was colder than average across Scotland (the sixth consecutive one in a row). January 1994 looks like one of those zonal but not raging mild zonal months that often brings seasonably chilly weather in the north and mild conditions in the south. February 1994 was chilly everywhere with the easterly blast later. I could be wrong but the winter of 1993/1994 probably was quite a seasonable one across Scotland whereas the south probably wondered what the fuss was about.

Reading these comments you’d really think it was winter 2007 from the amount of negativity being churned out at the moment. I’m not talking about objective posts or trends, but to see this run branded as terrible is just nonsense. There’s a lot of IMBYism going on at the moment. If I was in the north of England/Scotland I’d be very excited at the moment. I just find the knee jerk reactions unnecessary. Most winters you’d be biting your arm off for the potential we have at the moment. Even if the south isn’t guaranteed snowmagedddon the outlook remains positive and filled with chances. Don’t forget the post I made about the evolution of the pattern in late December 1978. Sometimes it takes a few bites of the cherry to get there. I may end up taking a break from model watching for a bit as I find it all a bit too tense.

Well, I'm not seeing it from a mild or cold perspective when I say it though, I agree with your sentiment exactly but I don't think it's as simple as that. But alas, the weather will do what it must regardless of whar we like!

It would be interesting to see the opposite, notably mild Christmasses in cold winters.

The handelling of this low pressure is such on a knife edge and borderline unforecastable that I would stick to Christmas Day MAX in terms of the charts. What happens after that is unknown. If the models don't have a handle on this, they can't make accurate assesments after that period. I reckon there's still about 3-4 more agonising model watching days ahead. Feels like we've been staring this down forever, doesn't it!? Until then, cold and mild rampers can only dream and make educated guesses (if they're capable!)

At the risk of sounding rather authoritarian, a part of me wonders whether posters with a history of bait-type posts in the model discussion should be banned from it. It seems time and time again every winter it happens. I actually think the majority of NW members are sensible and a great help at reading charts, you all helped me learn a great deal since now I can read weather charts, but there is def a minority amount of posters who seem to get a kick out of baiting people and being generally unhelpful. Soapbox moment over!

potentially historic conditions being shown this evening. while in no way am i attached to that outcome actually happening, it sure would be a brighter headline than what we're used to. especially over christmas too. excellent starting conditions to winter.

At this stage I feel confident enough to say that some regions are gonna get a white Xmas this year, but as to where? Unknown right now. Being in the south, AND in London, snow is always a little harder to come by here so in a personal way I do hope for further corrections south a little bit. Either way though, what fantastic charts to enter the official start of winter.

The coldest January since 1979 that never was...

And are we really going to take a Met Office max temp for a week ahead of us as all that significant when A. we have models at hand and B. they can be notoriously wrong on the actual day sometimes? Cmon.

I think I read on here that mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 managed a sub-zero CET. It’s a pity in a way the synoptics didn’t lined up with a calendar month or we would have seen our coldest month probably since the 1980s. Of course December 2010 would go to prove that we could get it sub-zero for a whole month. Imagine if January AND December had both been below freezing. Reminds me of a thread on here IIRC, about notable warm/cool/hot/cold spells that are hidden by the C.E.T. due to half-monthly periods. A couple of months in 2005 were like that, second half of August 1938 etc. etc.

If the models are already swinging south with the area of low pressure it’s enough to tantalise me. Only small adjustments are needed now between a cold and wet Christmas for the south or a cold and white one. Something tells me the southerly corrections won’t stop yet, though time as always will tell.

I like to keep my sources of information wide, though I find NW much more engaging

A brief browse of TWO forums and I was expecting mild all around and a complete collapse of the cold spell yet alas still looking good this evening

As 1978 has been mentioned, here's a brief run through of the evolution that brought a severe spell and why fears of a potential southerly influence should not be feared. 23 December 1978 25 December 1978 (SWerlies!!!) 27 December 1978 (yawn more SWerlies...) 29 December 1978 (Wait a minute...) 31 December 1978 (I think they call that "boom"? The rest is history.

I remember reading about thunderstorms reported on Christmas Day in 1989 & 1990 giving the impression that it was the only time relatively widespread reports of thunder on the big day was recorded two years in a row. As for 1947, it seems fitting that the year that had literally everything would end with firecrackers on Christmas Day. A truly remarkable year for weather.

If models threads had existed then I can imagine the amount of hair tearing there would have been and winter is over posts I actually posted a comment on GavsWeatherVids a little while ago highlighting the uncanny simalarities this December, as well as the whole year has had to 1978. If you were watching his winter updates last year then you know how much it was emphasised how many things were aligning closely to 1978 in the analogues. That similarity has continued throughout the spring, less so in the summer, then even more so in autumn. Even the very mild November with a cold northerly snap in November. This December has also been similar up 'til recently with southerly tracking low pressure systems bringing lots of cold rain. To see this potential easterly that once again is similar to 1978 is fascinating. I'm not one for pattern matching all of the time, and I'm not suggesting that all of that means it will def. come off or a very cold January will def. occur in January 2022, but you can't deny the interesting similarities. Hope that's not too off topic. Thought it was interesting to add.

I agree with you. The moaning actually discourages me from looking at model output sometimes. Also, some may disagree with me on this but if it meant a (relatively) mild and wet Christmas Day to get a more sustained cold spell into January I'd actually much rather that. I know it's festive and all that but it's one day of the winter. Better to have the good stuff at the most drab time of year! Not worried about output this morning one bit tbh. Let's get closer first.

Reminder for the new day that this is a model thread, people

All down from now on…

To say the period from September 2000 to April 2001 was a extremely wet in the south actually hides just *how* extreme it was + the exceptionally wet April and May of 2000 just a couple of months earlier. The southeast recorded crazy amounts like 170-200% of their average rainfall across these 7 months which is absolutely insane to think of. I remember reading that the first week of February saw well over the average February average with flooding because the ground just couldn’t cope with more water. I can’t think of any spell of weather so wet in my memory, only summer 2012 and winter 2014 are comparable but even these fail to match the unprecedented and sustained rainfall totals in the south/southeast during late 2000 and early 2001. Even the fairly non-descript somehow managed to be extremely wet in the southeast! Off topic slightly since we were talking about Christmas but it’s a fascinating spell and I was born during the middle of it! I suppose it explains my love of the rain. ?