TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADIMar 12/0745 UTC 2014 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CAT 2 CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 171.5E AT 120600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT..OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND FAIR TO THE NORTH. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.1 WRAP IN VIS ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET THUS, T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.FORECASTS :AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 20.2S 172.9E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTREAT 24 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 22.4S 174.1E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO CENTREOUTLOOK :AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 24.8S 174.4E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTREAT 48 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 27.4S 174.1E MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRETHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 121400 UTC
