tropicbreeze

JTWC Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPS21 Issued at 03/0330ZEC is leaning towards it being close to Darwin near the middle of April.

The TCWC Brisbane has picked up on the low near the SolomonsIDQ10810Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology QueenslandTropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral SeaIssued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 2 April 2014for the period until midnight EST Saturday 5 April 2014.Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones: A weak low is currently located close to the Solomon Islands near 10S 159.5E. The low is expected to remain slow moving over the northern Coral Sea during the outlook period, but may adopt a more westerly track over the weekend. Further slow devlopment is expected over the outlook period.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:Thursday Very low Friday Very low Saturday Low TCWC Darwin has it moving across Cape York Peninsula and into the Arafura SeaIn the longer term, a tropical low in the northern Coral Sea is expected to move west and may cross Cape York Peninsula into the northern region mid next week.

About 24 hours and VWS will start taking its toll.

It needs to stay near lat 10S to continue benefitting from a favourable environment, but that's not likely to happen.

A friend was in Bali when ex-Gillian passed over there, said they just got good rain out of it. Now it's bearing down on Christmas Island. Expected to strengthen to TC in the early hours of tomorrow (Saturday), pass just to the north of the island during the day, strengthen to cat. 2 by evening. Wind gusts in excess of 125 kph are expected on the island Saturday and Sunday.

IDW24400Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1Issued at 10:44 am WST on Thursday 20 March 2014 A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian for Christmas Island. At 7:00 am CXT Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian, was estimated to be 1270 kilometres east northeast of Christmas Island and moving west at 34 kilometres per hour. Ex-TC Gillian is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday as it moves close to Christmas Island. Gales are not expected on the island during Thursday or Friday but may develop as early as Saturday afternoon. The period of greatest risk will commence overnight on Saturday into Sunday as the system moves past Christmas Island. Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian at 7:00 am CXT:.Centre located near...... 8.0 degrees South 117.0 degrees East.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 34 kilometres per hour.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity.Central pressure......... 1006 hectoPascals The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CXT Thursday 20 March.

At 20.5 S that's quite a long way south. Doesn't bode well for its future.

In their 4 day outlook BOM has Ex-Hadi crossing the Cape and the Gulf and then moving along the north coast of the Top End over the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral SeaIDQ10810Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 19 March 2014 for the period until midnight EST Saturday 22 March 2014. Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: At 1pm EST Wednesday, ex-tropical cyclone Hadi was situated in the northern Coral Sea, southeast of Papua New Guinea, and moving in a westwards direction. Ex-tropical cyclone Hadi is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction towards Cape York Peninsula over the next couple of days, but it is not expected to reform into a tropical cyclone. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:Thursday Very low Friday Very low Saturday Very low

I remember Kirrily, was a very late system, somewhere around end of April or early May. Got to within about 5 degrees of the equator. True, Gillian does have a future, there's a big distance between it and the high lats. After Indonesia Christmas Island is likely to be affected. Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western RegionIDW10800Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region Issued at 1:23 pm WST on Wednesday 19 March 2014 for the period until midnight WST Saturday 22 March 2014. Existing Cyclones in the Western Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: Ex-TC Gillian is tracking in the mountainous terrain of the Indonesian archipelago this afternoon. Current conditions are unfavourable for development in the near-term. On Friday, the system may track southwest from Java with more favourable conditions for development on Saturday as it possibly nears Christmas Island. Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Region on:Thursday Very Low Friday Low Saturday Moderate There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.

Looks like the rather erratic Gillian story is coming to an end. IDD20021TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGIONIssued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTREat: 1931 UTC 17/03/2014Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone GillianIdentifier: 14UData At: 1800 UTCLatitude: 9.9SLongitude: 132.8ELocation Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]Movement Towards: west [277 deg]Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]Central Pressure: 1004 hPaRadius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRSPressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPaRadius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+06: 18/0000: 9.7S 131.0E: 055 [105]: 030 [055]: 1004+12: 18/0600: 9.5S 129.5E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 1004+18: 18/1200: 9.3S 127.9E: 080 [150]: 030 [055]: 1004+24: 18/1800: 8.9S 125.9E: 095 [175]: 030 [055]: 1005+36: 19/0600: 8.4S 122.1E: 115 [210]: 025 [045]: 1006+48: 19/1800: 8.2S 118.7E: 135 [245]: 025 [045]: 1007+60: 20/0600: 8.5S 115.6E: 150 [280]: 025 [045]: 1007+72: 20/1800: 8.9S 113.0E: 170 [320]: 030 [055]: 1004+96: 21/1800: 10.3S 108.8E: 215 [400]: 030 [055]: 1003+120: 22/1800: 12.1S 106.3E: 300 [560]: 030 [055]: 1003REMARKS:Position based on persistence, IR imagery and synoptic observations with moderate confidence.Convection has moved further away from the low level centre, and the FT is based on sheared pattern, with a weakening to FT of 1.5 derived, though CI was held at 2.0 using constraints.Steering remains a solid west northwest under influence of a low level ridge to the south of the system. The 12Z global model runs show remarkable correspondence in position and timing for the movement of the system across Indonesia, though the projected tracks diverge in the long term in the Indian Ocean.GFS and JMA continue to maintain stronger forecast and even analysis intensities than the other models, however they have consistently been too strong over the past few days and so are being treated as less likely scenarios. Most other guidance suggests little strengthening prior to the system transiting into the Indonesian archipelago due to the system not being vertically stacked [the middle level centre displace to the west northwest of the low level centre]. Dry low to mid level air is also being drawn into the system from the south, further reducing the chances of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days. Nevertheless squally heavy rain is still possible around the low as it passes across the Timor Sea and Indonesia.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia==The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

IDQ10810Australian Government Bureau of MeteorologyQueenslandTropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral SeaIssued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 17 March 2014for the period until midnight EST Thursday 20 March 2014.Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones: At 1pm EST Monday, ex-tropical cyclone Hadi was situated to the northeast ofVanuatu and was moving slowly west. Ex-tropical cyclone Hadi is expected tomove back into the region on Tuesday, and then westards across the Coral Seaduring the remainder of the week. It is not expected to redevelop into atropical cyclone.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:Tuesday Very Low Wednesday Low Thursday Low

Ex-Gillian is still moving slowly north of the Top End coast. Convection has increased but shear is still fairly high. The LLCC is displaced to the east south east of the mid level centre.

This gives a good indication of the winds. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-184.92,-34.12,1689

The remnants are just off the tip of North Island. Analysis for 7:00pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014Issued at: 7:51pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014

It's only a small system so it can change rapidly. BOM has it remaining a tropical low for the next 3 days. Under current expectations it's more likely to affect Timor than the Australian mainland.

It's started turning NW and is expected to track clear of the NT coast. Dry air and VWS increase along that track which is now identical to the track taken by TC Monica. By Tuesday it's expected to be near the Tiwi Islands/Darwin. GFS has it affecting Darwin on Monday, then continuing across the Timor Sea and out into the Indian Ocean.

Noticed GFS was indicating a TC crossing the coast near Cairns next week. Can only assume it's a ressurected Hadi. There's nothing else around.

With a blocking ridge east of NZ ex-Lusi will produce very strong winds. Ex-Oswald did the same on the south coast of Queensland last year. Although it had long gone extratropical, once pushed up against the ridge in the Tasman it started to produce cyclonic winds, and of course torrential rain. Might be good to batten down the hatches and keep your head down in NZ.

IDD20250Australian Government Bureau of MeteorologyNorthern TerritoryTropical Cyclone Warning CentreMedia: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGTROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 41 Issued at 4:43 pm CST on Friday 14 March 2014A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Elcho Island to Numbulwar, including Alyangula and NhulunbuyA Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Croker Island to Elcho IslandAt 3:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Gillian was estimated to be325 kilometres east of Groote Eylandt and325 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuymoving north northeast at 10 kilometres per hourTROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN is moving slowly north over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Tropical Cyclone Gillian is expected to turn northwest overnight and move towards the northeast Arnhem district. It is expected to cross the coast near Nhulunbuy during Saturday night or early Sunday morning. It is then expected to continue moving west near the north coast of the Top End.GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Numbulwar and Nhulunbuy, including Alyangula, during Saturday, extending to Elcho Island later on Saturday.GALES may extend further west to Maningrida Saturday night or on Sunday, then Croker Island on Sunday night.Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Numbulwar and Nhulunbuy. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.HEAVY RAIN may lead to flash flooding in coastal areas of northeast Arnhem Land on Saturday, extending west across the north coast on Sunday.The Territory Controller advises residents from Elcho Island to Numbulwar that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter.The Territory Controller advises Northern Territory communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.Details of Tropical Cyclone Gillian at 3:30 pm CST:.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 139.5 degrees East.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres.Recent movement.......... towards the north northeast at 10 kilometres per hour.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour.Severity category........ 1.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascalsPlease ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Friday 14 March.

IDD20021TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGIONIssued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTREat: 0156 UTC 14/03/2014Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone GillianIdentifier: 14UData At: 0000 UTCLatitude: 14.0SLongitude: 139.3ELocation Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]Movement Towards: slow movingSpeed of Movement: slow movingMaximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]Central Pressure: 1002 hPaRadius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRSPressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPaRadius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+06: 14/0600: 13.7S 139.1E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1005+12: 14/1200: 13.5S 138.8E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 1001+18: 14/1800: 13.2S 138.4E: 065 [125]: 035 [065]: 1001+24: 15/0000: 12.9S 138.0E: 080 [145]: 040 [075]: 1000+36: 15/1200: 12.3S 137.0E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 1000+48: 16/0000: 11.9S 136.0E: 120 [220]: 030 [050]: 1004+60: 16/1200: 11.6S 134.7E: 140 [255]: 025 [045]: 1005+72: 17/0000: 11.3S 132.8E: 155 [290]: 025 [045]: 1006+96: 18/0000: 11.1S 127.6E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1007+120: 19/0000: 11.1S 121.1E: 290 [535]: 035 [065]: 999REMARKS:The system has shown significant improvement in organisation over the last 6 hours, with convection increasing and consolidating in the central Gulf of Carpentaria. Position is based on 2330UTC satellite image, and the Mornington Island and Gove radars. Curved band 0.6 wrap yields DT=3.0, with better central features. CDO pattern with the 85nm diameter also gives of 3.0 and if we include a weak banding of 0.5, it gives DT=3.5. MET=2.5, PAT gives 2.5. FT=2.5 based on MET and PAT.The low is located near the upper level ridge with weak shear [about 10 knots] over the system. The low level centre has been slowly moving NE over the last 6 hours in response to a mid/upper trough moving just south of the system. Beyond the short term, a building mid level ridge over Central Australia will steer the system towards the northwest.The system is expected to continue intensifying in the short term before increasing S/SE wind shear and mid level dry air entrainment due to the building ridge to the south and west arrests development. Beyond 24 hours, land interaction is expected to weaken the system below tropical cyclone strength.Once the system moves into the Timor Sea it will encounter more favourable conditions and may begin to slowly intensify.Most models are in agreement with the cyclone tracking along the north coast of the Top End, NT. However there is significant variation in model intensity guidance.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia==The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

From NZ MetserviceSTORM WARNING 242This affects ocean area: SUBTROPICAT 140000UTCOver waters south of 25S.Low 977hPa, former Cyclone LUSI, near 28S 173E moving southsouthwest 15kt.1. Within 60 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 50kt.2. Outside area 1 and in a belt 300 nautical miles wide centred on a line 29S 179E 30S 174E 29S 171E: Easterly 35kt.3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 180 nautical miles of low in sector from southwest through northwest to east: Clockwise 35kt.Storm and gale areas moving with low.This warning cancels and replaces warning 240.Issued at 1:31pm Friday 14 Mar 2014

Becoming a bit more complicated.

Wasn't it Sandra last year that reached NZ? Negligible rain in that one despite a lot of people hoping for more.

Not unusual for TC's to weave extremely erratic tracks in this area. Steer is often not very strong.Easy to see where ex-Gillian is on the Mornington radar. Expected to begin moving to the northwest soon. Cyclone warning has been extended to Maningrida.BOM still expects it to reintensify when it reaches the Timor Sea. They have it moving away from the coast. But by then steer might bring it back on Darwin or the Kimberley Coast.On a side note, a storm has hit here. Max rainfall rate was 235 mm per hour for a short while. Got over 62 mm in the past half hour, and it's still raining fairly heavily. House is shaking from the thunder (maybe it's scared, LOL).

BOM is now giving Gillian the same track as Monica. There was also dry air for Monica to contend with but it still peaked as a high end cat 5 north of Gove. The SSTs there are accommodating enough for that, but not shear.