tropicbreeze

The latest GFS run I have (18z Monday 21/04/14) shows the system reaching the central Arnhem Land coast Saturday 26/4 getting up to 50 kts. From there crossing west into Van Dieman Gulf Sunday 27/4 up to 48 kts (land interaction). Then rapidly strengthening as it continues west across Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and the Timor Sea getting up to 96 kts by Wednesday 30/4. SSTs are very high through there so unless VWS and/or dry air affect the system it's likely to really intensify.

GFS has been toying with this one for the past few days. It's had it anything from around 80 kts down to a weak tropical low by the time it's in the Timor Sea/Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, and from late this week to early next week.IDD10610Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern TerritoryTropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of CarpentariaIssued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 21 April 2014 for the period until midnight CST Thursday 24 April 2014.Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones:A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the northern Arafura Sea to the north of the region. The low is expected move slowly west before entering the Northern Region as it moves southwestwards into the Timor Sea later this week.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:Tuesday Very LowWednesday Very LowThursday Low

From Perth TCWC at: 0056 UTC 21/04/2014 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack is showing signs of weakening as it moves slowly southwards across the central Indian Ocean. Position has been located using satellite imagery, with a good fix on ssmi microwave imagery at 2044 UTC. EIR imagery gives a DT of 5.0 based on an embedded centre pattern. FT/CI is based on MET=4.5. ADT is slightly higher at 4.8. SATCON intensity at 19 UTC was 57 knots and CIMSS AMSU was lower at 50 knots [1 minute means]. Intensity is estimated to be 65 knots [10 minute mean] based on Dvorak. Microwave imagery shows a slight displacement of the LLCC to the north of the cold cloud and outflow has diminished in northern quadrants. Forecast is for further weakening as an approaching upper trough increases northwesterly shear across the system. This will be the main factor influencing the system's demise over the course of the next 24-36 hours. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

From Perth TCWC at: 1915 UTC 19/04/2014 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jack has continued to rapidly develop and is a category 3 cyclone. The system was located using infra-red satellite imagery. Recent images depict a southerly track for much of the last several hours. 16U is over warm SSTs 28-30C. TC Heat Potential does decrease south of 15S but SST's remain above 26 degrees celsius north of about 20S. Dvorak: Over the last few hours the system has been exhibiting a DT of 4.5 based on a curved band pattern with an eye developing in the last image. Intensity is set at 65 knots which is in reasonable agreement with ADT and SATCON [70 knots 1 minute mean]. EIR imagery shows recent eye development, with patches of CMG and CDG within a broad W region. CIMSS shear analysis at 1200 UTC continues to analyse easterly shear of less than 10 knots. Low to moderate shear and thus continued development is expected until later Sunday when the shear increase and the system begins to weaken. Due to interaction with the subtropical ridge to the south of the system, gales may persist in southern quadrants until Thursday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

From Perth TCWC at: 0111 UTC 19/04/2014 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jack has rapidly developed over the past 24 hours and has reached tropical cyclone intensity. The system was located using infra-red and microwave satellite imagery. 16U is over warm SSTs 29-30C. TC Heat Potential does decrease south of 14S but SST's remain above 26 degrees celcius north of about 20S. Dvorak: Initial T1.0 was assessed at 1800 17 April. Using a curved band pattern, DTs in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 have been obtained over the past 6 hours. System intensity is set 45 knots. CIMSS shear analysis at 1800 UTC indicated generally easterly shear between 10 and 20 knots. The shear is forecast to decrease over the next 24 to 36 hours and the system is expected to further intensify and may reach category 3 intensity on Sunday. An approaching upper level trough will assist poleward outflow late on Saturday and during Sunday. This trough will ultimately cause an increase in shear with strong upper level northwest winds, causing the system to weaken during Monday. Due to interaction with the sub tropical ridge to the south of the system, gales may persist in the southern half until Wednesday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

IDW10800 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region Issued at 2:14 pm WST on Thursday 17 April 2014 for the period until midnight WST Sunday 20 April 2014. Existing Cyclones in the Western Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: At 1200 WST a low pressure system [16U] was located 325 kilometres west northwest of the Cocos Islands, near 10.8S 94.2E and moving westwards at 17 kilometres an hour towards the boundary of the Western Region. The system may develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend west of 90E and is likely to re-enter the Western Region late Sunday or during Monday. As the system is likely to be west of 90E on Sunday, the likelihood has been reduced to moderate even though this system may be a tropical cyclone. Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on: Friday Low Saturday Moderate Sunday High There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected to develop over the next three days.

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.ISSUED BY MetService AT 9:49 am 16-Apr-2014HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FORECAST FOR MANY PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ZEALANDA deep low is forecast to move west of the North Island early Thursday and lie slow moving west of central New Zealand through to Friday night before weakening and crossing southern New Zealand late Saturday. Easterly gales are expected to affect many parts of northern and central New Zealand during Thursday, with severe gales for a time about exposed western and central areas from Northland down to Wellington and also about northern and western parts of the South Island. Gusts of 110 to 140 km/h are likely in exposed parts of these areas during Thursday, which have the potential to damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures and make driving hazardous. A burst of heavy rain is also expected for many parts of the North Island and northern and eastern parts of the South Island. Further significant falls are expected about Nelson, Marlborough, Wellington and Taranaki, especially during Thursday, with 200 to 300mm likely about the ranges and 70 to 100mm about some low lying areas. Warning amounts of rain are also expected about the ranges of Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty during Thursday. People in these areas are advised to watch out for rapidly rising streams and rivers, surface flooding, slips and hazardous driving conditions. Note, many other parts of the North Island, including Auckland, are expected to see a brief intense period of rain during Thursday and a watch is in force for these areas.

The last word on Ita may not have been written yet. From the NZ MetService:SUBTROPIC HIGH SEAS FORECASTChange forecast: SubtropicIssued by MetService at 6:53pm Monday 14 Apr 2014Forecast valid to Midnight Tuesday 15 Apr 2014: Poor visibility in areas of rain within 180 nautical miles east of Front 30S 162E 35S 166E 40S 166E moving east 10kt. West of New Zealand, east of Front, south of 37S: Northerly quarter 25kt developing by 141800UTC. Low 999hPa near 40S 160E moving east 10kt. West of Front,south of 35S: Clockwise 25kt about Low, with gales as in Australian issue. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita 992hPa near 23.7S 155.1E moving eastsoutheast 18kt. West of 163E,north of 32S:Clockwise 25kt about Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita ,with storms and gales as in Australia warning, and poor visibility in areas of rain.Outlook following 72 hoursFormer Cyclone Ita near 25S 160E moving south-southeast and deepening, becoming slow moving near 37S 165E around 170000UTC. In a broad area west of 180: Clockwise 25kt to gale about cyclone Ita, with storms close to centre. Heavy swell in gale and storm areas.SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKIssued: 2:52pm Monday 14 Apr 2014Valid from Wednesday 16 April 2014 to Saturday 19 April 2014An intense low of tropical origin should become slow-moving over the Tasman Sea to the west of New Zealand on Thursday, then move southeast across the southern South Island on Saturday or Sunday. This is likely to bring strong to gale east to northeast winds and moderate to heavy rain to many North Island areas. There is some uncertainty in the predicted position of the low which will determine which areas get the most wind and rain.

Ita has now transitioned to an extra tropical system and this will likely be the final technical bulletin. IDQ20018TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGIONIssued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTREat: 0726 UTC 14/04/2014Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone ItaIdentifier: 15UData At: 0600 UTCLatitude: 23.7SLongitude: 155.1ELocation Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]Movement Towards: east southeast [122 deg]Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]Central Pressure: 992 hPaRadius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 0 nm [0 km]Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]Dvorak Intensity Code: N/APressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPaRadius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+06: 14/1200: 24.3S 156.6E: 040 [080]: 050 [095]: 992+12: 14/1800: 24.7S 157.6E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 992+18: 15/0000: 25.3S 158.6E: 065 [125]: 045 [085]: 995+24: 15/0600: 25.9S 159.9E: 080 [145]: 045 [085]: 995+36: 15/1800: 27.6S 162.6E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 993+48: 16/0600: 30.9S 166.8E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996+60: 16/1800: 36.0S 170.2E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 994+72: 17/0600: 38.2S 170.3E: 155 [290]: 035 [065]: 990+96: 18/0600: : : : +120: 19/0600: : : : REMARKS:Analysis of the cloud system and ASCAT data suggests that the system has completed its transition to a vigorous extra-tropical low. Movement will continue to be rapidly ESE due to NW'ly steering from a strong upper trough over eastern Australia. Deep layer wind shear over the system is estimated to be 30 - 40 knots.Surface observations from Cato Island indicate that the system has intensified during the extra-tropical transition, with maximum sustained winds pushed up to 50 knots. Dvorak analysis no longer relevant. Confidence in the LLCC position is fair, using visible satelite imagery and surface automatic weather station observations.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

TC Ita is now well off the coast and continuing to move rapidly east south east at 31 kph. It's expected to transition into an extratropical system within 24 hours.

It never looks much from a chopper in the air through a TV screen, but it does have a lot of impact on the community on the ground. From Brisbane TCWC at: 0706 UTC 13/04/2014:REMARKS:Tropical Cyclone Ita is rapidly moving in a southeast direction along the southern tropical Queensland coast. The circulation appears quite ragged on a merged radar sequence, though a distinct band of heavy rainfall is evident to the east and south of the systems estimated centre. One hourly rainfall totals in excess of 100mm have been recorded in this band during this afternoon and there have also been reports of waterspouts off the coast of Bowen. Surface observations from Bowen at 3pm EST also indicated that the central pressure of the system still remains at 995hPa.Tropical Cyclone Ita is still a moderate to deep tropical circulation being steered in southeast direction by a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia. The CIMMS wind shear product indicates that only low to moderate vertical wind shear currently exists across the system, though this is expected to increase into Monday with the approach of the mid-level trough. As the vertical wind shear increases across the system, Ita is expected to transition into an extra-tropical system and intensify in the process with winds expected to increase to 45 knots around the system, possibly even reaching storm force in the northeast quadrant by early Monday. A Dvorak analysis of the system is currently not possible due to its proximity to land, however this may change tonight as the system moves offshore.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia Issued at 5:05 pm EST Sunday 13 April 2014.

Ita has moved off the coast near Lucinda. The weather station at Lucinda is currently recording gusts to 80 kph (43 kts). Strongest gusts of 96 kph (52 kts) were recorded about 16:30 UTC 12/04/14.

Cat 1 now. From Brisbane TCWC at: 0044 UTC 12/04/2014:REMARKS:Tropical Cyclone Ita has crossed the coast near Cape Flattery at 11-12UTC [9-10pm EST] as a severe TC with with maximum wind estimated at 80-90 knots. Weakening commenced prior to landfall as the inner eyewall weakened in response to a developing secondary eye wall. Ita has rapidly weakened since crossing time due to land interaction and entraintment of dry air with moderate northerly shear.Surface observations suggest intensity is capped at 45 knots 10 minute mean. Satellite presentation is still reasonable, however the radar signature has become quite poor and centre lcoation is based on observations and persistence.TC Ita will weaken over elevated terrain over the next 12 hours. However a track back over the Coral Sea in the next 24 to 48 hours is suggested by most models. Coincident with this movement, interaction with an upstream mid to upper level trough is expected. Development into a hybrid tropical system is supported by a number of models, and strong gale winds may redevelop in some quadrants during this time period, together with heavy rain on the western flank.Warning policy will transition from issuance of tropical cyclone products to severe weather warning products for the hybrid system.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

Looks like the Cape Flattery weather station got knocked out at around 10:00 pm, at 9:00 pm it was getting gusts to 159 kph (86 kts). Currently Ita is cat 2 and still weakening with rough terrain/land interaction, increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment.

(Oops, don't know how I came up with the double image above.) Latest observations Cape Flattery, things are ramping up.

Cairns 512 km Composite Radar 11/04/14 07:50UTC

Cairns 512 km Composite Radar 10/4/14 22:40UTC. Unfortunately no doppler.

Issued at 5:00 pm EST Thursday 10 April 2014.

BOM is now saying it's possible Ita might make it to Cat 5. IDQ20018TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGIONIssued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTREat: 1839 UTC 09/04/2014Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone ItaIdentifier: 15UData At: 1800 UTCLatitude: 11.5SLongitude: 148.7ELocation Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]Movement Towards: west [262 deg]Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]Central Pressure: 959 hPaRadius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRSPressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPaRadius of outermost closed isobar: 85 nm [155 km]FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+06: 10/0000: 11.8S 147.8E: 025 [045]: 085 [155]: 960+12: 10/0600: 12.1S 147.2E: 035 [065]: 090 [165]: 955+18: 10/1200: 12.3S 146.4E: 050 [090]: 095 [175]: 950+24: 10/1800: 12.9S 146.1E: 060 [115]: 100 [185]: 944+36: 11/0600: 14.0S 145.2E: 080 [150]: 105 [195]: 939+48: 11/1800: 14.8S 144.4E: 100 [185]: 075 [140]: 950+60: 12/0600: 15.7S 144.0E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 983+72: 12/1800: 16.7S 144.3E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 997+96: 13/1800: 18.2S 147.6E: 185 [340]: 030 [055]: 1001+120: 14/1800: 19.2S 150.5E: 270 [500]: 035 [065]: 996REMARKS:Centre embedded 0.6 degrees in CMG. DT is 5.0. MET supports. Final T 5.0. System continues at a near constant intensity in the high category 3 range during the previous 24 hours with transient eyes becoming evident then dissipating. Little change in the environment or prognosed track. If anything NWP models are becoming more tightly clustered about a landfall between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery on Friday night AEST 11/4/13. The system remains situated in a low vertical wind shear enviroment with sea surface temperatures greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS upper winds depict very good outflow above the system. Steering is towards the west under the influence of a mid-level ridge extending from Queensland into the central Coral Sea. This ridge is eroded late in the week by an approaching SWT allowing southerly and eventually southeasterly movement. Although the environment is favourable for further development, Ita has remained at a constant intensity during the last 24 hours, possibly due to interaction with the Papua New Guinea land mass immediately to the north. Further intensification is forecast from later Thursday as the system moves away from this influence. Have limited intensity to upper category 4 at this stage as CIMSS winds depict a tongue of slightly elevated deep layer shear later in the track, and this is reflected in the STIPS and SHIPS prognoses which are currently capping at approximately 100 to 105 knots [1 minute]. Nevertheless, intensification to category 5 is possible. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

IDQ20023Australian Government Bureau of MeteorologyQueensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3Issued at 4:42 pm EST on Wednesday 9 April 2014 A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Grenville to Cairns. At 4:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category 3, was estimated to be 770 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River and 710 kilometres northeast of Cooktown, and moving west at 15 kilometres per hour. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 3, is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction towards the far north Queensland coast, while intensifying. GALES extend 220 kilometres out from the centre and may develop between Coen and Cooktown late Thursday and develop elsewhere between Cape Grenville and Cairns during Friday. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita poses a significant threat to communities along the far north Queensland coast and at this stage it is expected to approach the coast between Lockhart River and Cape Flattery and make landfall late Friday as a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 TROPICAL CYCLONE with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS near the core and GALES extending some distance from the landfall location. The sea may rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide between Cape Grenville and Cairns close to landfall on Friday, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas possible. People living in low lying areas that may be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities. Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about the Peninsula and northern parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts on Thursday and persist into Friday.People between Cape Grenville and Cairns should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 11pm EST. - Information is available from your local government- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage). Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita at 4:00 pm EST:.Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 150.2 degrees East.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 kilometres per hour.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour.Severity category........ 3.Central pressure......... 963 hectoPascals The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Wednesday 09 April.

GFS has Ita crossing the coast then swinging back into the Coral Sea and intensifying, but continuing south east. EC has it just making the Gulf then turning back south east. Issued at 10:45 am EST Wednesday 9 April 2014.

Although Ita is still drifting, seems the models are getting a little closer together. EC seems to favour the crossing of the Cape near Coen, into the Gulf and then swing back to the south east and cross the coast again near Karumba. From Brisbane TCWC at: 0115 UTC 08/04/2014 REMARKS:Using EMBD Centre with a 1.1 degree LG surround, yielding a DT of 4.5. MET is also 4.5, though it is arguable that the 21Z image from 27 hours ago had a LG eye with a LG surround, though this was a very transient feature at the time. Now 12 hour-old Ascat data showed numerous values near the centre of at least 50 knots, broadly consistent with the current DT. TC Ita remains near stationary, trapped between mid level ridges over eastern Australia and to Ita's east. The mid level ridge over eastern Australia is expected to ridge zonally out into the southwestern reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, thereby inducing the forecast westward motion. Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of an approaching upper trough, with some models introducing a low amplitude upper trough and thereby allowing Ita to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria, whilst other global models introduce an upper trough of sufficient amplitude that Ita remains in the Coral Sea or moves over northern Queensland. Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow. The system is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be favourable for development, though allowances have been made for the high terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia Issued at 11:08 am EST Tuesday 8 April 2014

There's still a huge spread in the model tracks. In a weeks time Ita could be anywhere between 2 points about 2000 kms apart. At the moment it's moving west (280 degrees) at 6 KPH.

Now Tropical Cyclone Ita. Seems to want to pay Port Moresby a visit. But GFS has it heading down along the Queensland coast still offshore, by Sunday April 13 out from about Bundaberg.

Now this one is starting very similarly to Monica, near same place, near same track, only about a week or two earlier in the season. AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANETROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAPTropical LowIssued at 10:54 am EST Saturday 5 April 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.IDQ20018TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGIONIssued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0110 UTC 05/04/2014Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 15UData At: 0000 UTCLatitude: 11.8SLongitude: 156.3ELocation Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]Central Pressure: 998 hPaRadius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRSPressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPaRadius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+06: 05/0600: 12.0S 155.6E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 994+12: 05/1200: 12.1S 154.9E: 065 [120]: 035 [065]: 993+18: 05/1800: 12.3S 154.5E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 992+24: 06/0000: 12.4S 154.1E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 992+36: 06/1200: 12.7S 153.4E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 989+48: 07/0000: 12.9S 152.9E: 130 [235]: 055 [100]: 983+60: 07/1200: 12.7S 152.3E: 150 [275]: 060 [110]: 980+72: 08/0000: 12.6S 151.6E: 165 [310]: 065 [120]: 977+96: 09/0000: 12.2S 149.8E: 210 [390]: 085 [155]: 960+120: 10/0000: 12.6S 147.5E: 300 [555]: 085 [155]: 961REMARKS:The tropical low has been moving southwest slowly and maintaining deep convection near the centre. The system has shown improved organisation in the past 12 hours and is expected to continue this trend due to being located in a favourable environment. The system is expected to maintain a slow west-southwestwards track and continue deepening in the next 24 hours.The current intensity is based on Dvorak analysis yielding a DT=3.0. The Final T number is based on MET=PT=2.5.Longer term movement is likely to remain in a general westwards quadrant, however it is a little difficult to say whether this will be north of the west or south of the west.The system is not expected to affect Queensland weather during the next 72 hours.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia==The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0700 UTC by Brisbane TCWC.