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tropicbreeze

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Everything posted by tropicbreeze

  1. tropicbreeze
    I wish too, but we're in the dry season now so have to wait a while before opportunity arises again. Time to study the camera manual.
  2. tropicbreeze
    That's definitely different! Rather bizarre formation, sort of UFO-like.
  3. tropicbreeze
    Sunset a few days ago.
  4. tropicbreeze
    Tonights sunset
  5. tropicbreeze
    These aren't mine, but they were taken last night just near my place. Well, my place is a couple of kilometres from the camera towards the storm. I should get serious about taking lightning photos myself, these sorts of evenings are common here during the wet season. Meantime, luckily there are some good photographers around. Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3 Photo 4 Photo 5
  6. tropicbreeze
    This morning's sunrise.
  7. tropicbreeze
    Get similar colours here sometimes, usually after a storm passes through not long before sunset. And they also often appear on the residual banks of storm clouds in the eastern sky earlier during sunset. Sunset last night.
  8. tropicbreeze
    Sunrise yesterday Sunset tonight.
  9. tropicbreeze
    Organisation has improved and vertical wind shear is still low. At 09/0000 UTC central pressure 997 hPa position South 8.2 East 169.4, movement south at 2 knots, wind (10 minute) 30 knots. Colourised Infrared satellite imagery 20150308 1932 UTC
  10. tropicbreeze
    11F has not changed much over the past 24 hours, vertical wind shear is low, sea surface temperatures 30C. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in 12 hours. At 08/1800 UTC central pressure 999 hPa position South 7.9 East 168.5, movement north west at 2 knots, wind (10 minute) 25 knots.
  11. tropicbreeze
    Yes, over the past week the models have had the track varying from directly over Vanuatu and along the chain of islands, or between Vanuatu and Fiji. Whichever track it does follow there will always be some islands directly affected.
  12. tropicbreeze
    Heading off home today I noticed this beautiful sunset begining to develop. So I sped off to where there was a better vantage point, not too many tall trees nearby. Unfortunately I missed the best of it with the back end of a storm, but still good and managed to get some shots of it. By the time I got home it was only a dim red glow.
  13. tropicbreeze
    A low is developing in the South Pacific east of the Solomons, north east of Vanuatu. Potential for development into a tropical cyclone within 24 to 48 hours is high. At 1800 UTC central pressure 1000 hPa position South 8.4 East 169.0, movement south west at 3 knots, wind (10 minute) 20 knots, sea surface temperatures 30C. TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 issued 1352 UTC Saturday 7 March 2015 GFS 156 hour forecast, Init. 00Z 20150307, valid at 12Z 20150313
  14. tropicbreeze
    Tonights sunset
  15. tropicbreeze
    Ex-Glenda un undergoing extra tropical transition. The LLCC is fully exposed and a warm front lies over the southern part of the system. Deep convection has disappeared from the northern sector. At 1200 UTC 20150227 central pressure 972 hPa, position South 29.6 East 68.1, movement south at 18 knots, wind (10 minute) 50 knots, radius of maximum winds 185 kms.
  16. tropicbreeze
    Vertical wind shear from the west has increased and is expected to continue doing so. The system will swing to the south south east and should commence extra tropical transition in 24 hours. JTWC has finally fallen in line with RMSC La Reunion's assessment. Monday it should pass to the south of Amsterdam and St Paul Islands which for most of the time are unoccupied, apart from the occasional presence of scientific researchers. At 0600 UTC 20150227 central pressure 980 hPa, position South 23.6 East 66.8, movement south at 7 knots, wind (10 minute) 45 knots, radius of maximum winds 157 kms.
  17. tropicbreeze
    RMSC La Reunion has now downgraded the possibility of Glenda developing into a tropical cyclone. Although wind shear remains low dry air has wrapped into the system from the west. There are recent signs of disorganisation and weakening. The system is expected to become post tropical in 60 hours. At 0000 UTC 20150225 central pressure 991 hPa, position South 19.9 East 68.0, movement south south west at 10 knots, wind (10 minute) 40 knots, radius of maximum winds 148 kms.
  18. tropicbreeze
    Glenda is tracking west but is expected to swing polewards soon and then south south eastwards. Vertical wind shear is low with equatorial outflow very good in the upper levels and a poleward outflow channel expected to develop soon. However the system is struggling to consolidate deep convection around the centre. Intensification to a tropical cyclone is expected in 24 hours. At 0600 UTC 20150225 central pressure 989 hPa, position South 17.6 East 68.9, movement west at 10 knots, wind (10 minute) 45 knots, radius of maximum winds 157 kms.
  19. tropicbreeze
    The system is experiencing decreasing vertical wind shear with strengthening convection near the centre. It's expected to intensify to tropical cyclone strength in 48 hours. However, in 72 hours increasing vertical wind shear is expected to commence weakening the system. At 0600 UTC 20150224 central pressure 996 hPa, position South 16.1 East 71.9, movement west at 6 knots, wind (10 minute) 30 knots.
  20. tropicbreeze
    A tropical low has formed in the Indian Ocean putting the island of Rodrigues under the spotlight again. However, it is not expected to directly impact the island. At 0600 UTC position South 14.0 East 74.9, central pressure 1002 hPa, movement south west at 5 knots, wind speed (10 minute) 25 knots. Global Models 0000z 20150223 RMSC La Reunion track map 0600 UTC 20150223
  21. tropicbreeze
    But if it backtracks over its old path it'll be going over upwelled colder water which is where it's predicted to go. I happened to TC Hamish years back when it 'tried' to backtrack over its former path.
  22. tropicbreeze
    As can be seen on Mackay radar, Marcia is crossing land which can be seen through the eye. With the smallness of the system it should dissipate rapidly. At 1800 UTC 20150219 central pressure 929 hPa, position South 21.6 East 150.5, movement south at 7 knots, wind (10 minute) 110 knots, radius of maximum winds 20 nautical miles. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP Issued at 6:59 am EST Friday 20 February 2015. Mackay Radar 256 km 2130 UTC 20150219 Weatherboard houses are not ideal cyclone shelters. But it's hard to say, the owner may have reinforced the structure, did he make that comment? After TC Tracy some people in Darwin welded railway lines into their house structure.
  23. tropicbreeze
    Lam has crossed the coast 15 kms east of Milingimbi and at this stage remains a cat 4 system. It's expected to fall below tropical cyclone intensity later today (Friday). At 1800 UTC 20150219 central pressure 943 hPa, position South 12.3 East 134.9, movement south west at 5 knots, wind (10 minute) 95 knots, radius of maximum winds 10 nautical miles, radius of 64 knot winds 20 nautical miles TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP Issued at 5:59 am CST Friday 20 February 2015. Warruwi Radar 512 km 2042 UTC 20150219
  24. tropicbreeze
    It's fortunate in a way that Lam's been so close to land. TC Monica was in the same area but further out and became a high end cat 5 . The eye of Lam is beginning to cross the mainland coast now and will shortly be over Ramingining.
  25. tropicbreeze
    Track map for Marcia has been updated, now a cat 5 on impact with land. ROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP Issued at 11:57 pm EST Thursday 19 February 2015.
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