tropicbreeze

During the past week TC Ernie formed in the Indian Ocean off the coast of WA. In 24 hours the system went from a tropical low to a category 4 cyclone, and in another 12 hours became a category 5. That's the fastest intensification of any tropical cyclone in the Australian region. Fortunately Ernie, with wind gusts to 315 kph, stayed off the coast. More recently another tropical low formed in the Arafura Sea just north of Darwin and drifted slowly southwards. However, it didn't intensify rapidly despite very warm sea surface temperatures due to very high vertical wind shear. It's now reached Cobourg Peninsula and isn't expected to reach tropical cyclone strength until it moves out into the Timor Sea. Meantime the north coast of the NT is experiencing squally heavy rains. In 24 hours Warruwi had 222.4 mm.

Hamilton Island had it's highest wind gust of 263 km/h at 10:25 AM local time. The eye appears to have now reached the coast around Airlie Beach, land friction should be affecting the system as about half of it will be over land. The latest BOM technical bulletin (0117 UTC 28/03/2017) gives it a DT 5.5 which would have to make it closer to a low end cat. 4 with a central pressure of 943 hPa. They also have it moving southwest at 9 km/h with sustained wind 185 km/h gusting to 260 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Blanche developed on Sunday after the tropical low 96S passed over the Tiwi islands in the Northern Territory. The cyclone stayed just off the coast near Darwin and intensified to a cat 2 system as it crossed the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf before crossing the north Kimberley coast. Point Fawcett got 384 mm rain in a 17 hour period as the system passed over.

After a lull in the monsoon in the north west it will likely be springing back to life with the expected arrival of the third tropical cyclone for this season. A low is developing to the north east of Darwin and according to the models should be over Darwin Sunday or Monday as a cat 1 or 2 tropical cyclone. The first 2 of the season barely made it to tropical cyclone intensity, mainly victims of dry air entrainment and high vertical wind shear. There's every possibility this one might be shot the same way, the whole season has been one of unfavourable conditions for cyclogenesis. Forecast is for around 300mm rain in the 48 hours as the system passes. Earth.nullschool wind graphic for 18:00 hrs local time Sunday (their data is taken from GFS).

The tropical moisture brought in by the low that developed in the Timor Sea is certainly making an impact on the central regions. Wulungurru, situated between the Gibson and Tanami Deserts 23.27S 129.38E, got 231.6 mm rain in the 24 hours up to 9:00AM this morning. The previous 24 hours they got 55.4 mm. Their average annual rainfall is 274.2 mm. Minimum and maximum temperatures remained consistently between the mid to low 20's and relative humidity in the high 90's. A nice tropical change to their normal arid desert environment.

When cyclones start moving around up north heat waves usually start affecting the south. TC Yvette is still well off the coast but the tropical low that developed in the Timor Sea is over land in the Kimberley. It's bringing heavy rain to the Kimberley and the NT Top End. I've had 143.4mm in the past 48 hours with some places recording up to 200mm in that time. Despite that I'm still only 56% of December average for 71% of the month.

Weather in the north west has been livening up with the development of 2 tropical lows, one in the Timor Sea and the other further out in the Indian Ocean. Time lapse satellite images look quite impressive: www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.asp The Timor Sea system was hugging the coast but has now crossed into the Kimberley without reaching tropical cyclone strength. However it's currently bringing high rainfall to the western Top End and eastern Kimberley areas with winds to 120kph around the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The Indian Ocean system is expected to eventually cross the coast between the Kimberley and the Pilbara over the Christmas weekend. Current indications are that it may reach category 3 by landfall. Interaction with the Timor Sea system raises the level of uncertainty. Meanwhile in the north east of the country rainfall is relatively low. On another note, we just had a very strong earth tremor, just before 00:30UTC. We normally get tremors here from quakes under the Banda Sea. USGS site has just published details, M6.5 - 278km ENE of Dili East Timor. Time: 2016-12-21 00:17:15 (UTC) Location: 7.527°S 127.874°E Depth: 158.7 km

A monsoon trough is developing over the Timor and Arafura Seas and is expected to cross the Top End coast Monday/Tuesday. During the week a low is expected to develop in the Arafura Sea and may develop into our the first tropical cyclone of the season. Although the wet season got off to a good start, my rainfall so far for December is under 7% of average at over half way through the month. But the arrival of the monsoon trough and associated cyclonic activity could push the rainfall back up over average, even if a little windy in the process.

After a long run of 37's the forecast is showing a drop in temperature later in the week. That's a better indication of rain than all their pretty pictures of storm clouds, lightning and rain. One can only hope.

We're three weeks away from the official start to the wet season. The temperature has been creeping up slowly, between 37C to 38C for the past week to 39C next week. If the rain comes through late next week as suggested it will be most welcome.

I think rainfall has been far more patchy than inferred by that chart. At my place the total for the 3 months of winter was 0.2mm, and the nearest BOM weather station was also 0.2mm for the same period. I haven't checked all the other weather stations in the area but many of them probably wouldn't be much different. That's far from the "Very much above average" indicated on the chart. Additionally, many areas have negligible rain during winter, mine included, and even only a very small shower could easily make a substantial increase over the average.

Today is officially the last day of winter here and, from the BOM, minimum temperature was 22.7C at 2:48AM while maximum was 35.8C at 2:59PM with 33% RH. At my place this morning just before dawn it was about 24.5C. Although winter coincides with our dry season the wet season doesn't officially start until 1 October.

Great photo. You can see there were strong winds there.

Nice one this morning

Darwin had it's coldest minimum for 2 years the other day when the temperature got down to 13.8C. The cold snap also broke the record for the most days with minimums below 20C, beating the record set in 1955 of 10 days by one. A change from June when records were being broken in the other direction.

First cloud cover for Darwin in ages and even some light spitting of rain in some areas. Although maximum was 30.5C and minimum 22.4C today, Darwin is predicted to have a maximum of 26C by Thursday with a minimum of 17C by Friday. By end of weekend should be getting back closer to normal.

G'day mb018538, I can't speak for everyone, people have their own individual responses to weather. But as to ".....do you get bored of the fairly narrow range of temperatures and that there isn't much variability in the weather?" For me the short answer is no. I spent about 4 years in Europe years ago, the usual "working holiday" thing. Some people there would ask me if it was awkward driving in Australia because we had to drive on the left all the time. Your question is a bit the same. You're attuned to different things and have different perceptions to people in other climates. Aboriginal people here have 6 seasons, Whites here tend to think in terms of a wet and a dry season with 2 transition periods between them, the Build-up and the Knock'em-down. The dry season (winter) is characterised by low night and high day temperatures. The wet season (summer) is characterised by high night temperatures and lower (lower than dry season) day temperatures. Weather forums focused on this area do fade off in the dry season. But wet season they become very active. Second guessing cyclogenesis and cyclone tracks, storm chasing, monitoring monsoonal flooding, those sorts of things keep it from getting too boring. And of course there are lots of other things than weather to keep you interested. But all the same, it does depend on the individual.

Sunrise this morning.

And in the north it just continues hot and dry, quite a contrast. Although we're well into the dry season (winter) we still haven't had a below 20C night and days in the mid 30's. This morning's minimum was 24.4C, maximum today 35.0C. In a couple of days time the minimum is expected to drop to 21C but then climb back up to 23C. Days are expected to stay around 34 - 35C. Lot of people are querying what sort of a wet season we'll get after this. Last wet season was a dismal let down so its been pretty dry for a long time.

Yes, I was safely well away at the time. Otherwise, I probably would have had to change my trousers a few times during that night. That weather system spawned at least 5 tornados before moving off the coast and developing into Severe Tropical Cyclone George, cat 5.

This is a piece of metal embedded in a tree after a tornado, about 150 metres from the house I lived in. There were only 2 caravans in its direct path. One was reduced virtually into confetti. The other was probably just caught on the edge and ended up in pieces over a 4 kilometre stretch. I was away at the time. Away is a good place to be sometimes.

One from a little while back. Sunset over Darwin Harbour.

Not unusual for a grasshopper to land on you, but when they realise where they are they're usually pretty quick to move on. This is a female Bark Boxer Mantis, Paraoxypilus sp., shaping up like a regular little pugalist.

Sunrise this morning

Sunset tonight