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neige57

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Everything posted by neige57

  1. neige57
    even better on the 12Z, just incredible. Positive anomalies have just tripled in size since yesterday
  2. neige57
    Awesome 6Z GFS, the AO index is expected to drop again
  3. neige57
    in my opinion, very unlikely that Western Europe is not affected by cold waves if the IPO index is below -1.5 for example. Since 1976, every time the index was below -1.5, the Western Europe had enjoyed a winter with several wave of severe frost including France, Germany and Britain . I do not see why this scheme would stop our current era. Another thing, El Nino is also unfavorable to the waves of gel in the eastern and central United States. Europe would be more favored by cold repeating especially the Central part of Europe
  4. neige57
    I think not. There are not really any aberrant values ​​GFS last night
  5. neige57
    it is a little worse in the short term but it is much better in the medium and long term so it will no doubt many negative
  6. neige57
    Not at all surprisingly, the situation of 6Z GFS has not changed at all compared to this morning. Things have changed very little. The value of the OPI index this morning was -3.36
  7. neige57
    Still a lot of high pressure over the Arctic in the 6Z GFS, both say that the OPI index will remain very negative. It was a big step and chances are now very high for the OPI index will be largely negative final
  8. neige57
    there is a good chance that the graph of AO suddenly changes tomorrow (see tonight) because the models projectent negative and not positive AO. There was a break last night this morning GFS / GEFS saw scenarios AO positive which explains the positive as shown in Chart
  9. neige57
    superb analysis and I totally agree with you. Now it only remains to wait for the value of the OPI index and will be fixed
  10. neige57
    oh yeah? but then how a model can you know whether there will be a warming (high or low) in the stratosphere 2/3 months before maturity if it included this factor in? It's just not possible so a model we know what it's worth, nothing
  11. neige57
    totally agree with this post
  12. neige57
    I prefer to base myself on the study of the OPI index (certainly more reliable) than models. For me, a model that remains a model and they can not take into account what might happen in the stratosphere before and forcing the polar vortex. The final forecast will be published in early November and if the OPI index should example below -1 then the risk of a positive NAO seriously weaken and no matter what will seasonal patterns. patience =)
  13. neige57
    yes it is true but this time, we are in a very negative and near record QBO ie between -25 and -30 now so I am much more optimistic that these waves wave 1 (or 2) change things so different to 2013
  14. neige57
    This could really help the Nordic block is the QBO to highly negative values ​​now, even at the records, between -25 and -30. And it should especially continue for several months. I think we are heading towards an interesting winter in Europe. The only question mark is solar activity but it is spirit to fall sharply at the moment so a rather positive
  15. neige57
    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077 ECMWF favors a negative AO November to March included seeing abnormalities Canada. A reminder, last year, CEP was in favor of a neutral AO positive
  16. neige57
    yes it is highly strange. Riccardo should probably know why? But it is true that the days (thus the 5, 7 and 10 October 2013), there was no evidence of a negative OPI cards medium and long term Returning to the present, the IPO index is negative and this is the most important. There was no day is spent in the positive. The average of 1 to October 15 will be negative and no doubt this is a very positive
  17. neige57
    All data are from the GFS 00Z, 6Z and 12Z. The 18Z GFS is not taken into account
  18. neige57
    models always very interesting this morning with a VP placed towards the Urals and still ubiquitous high pressure on the central Arctic. The IPO index is expected to remain negative well
  19. neige57
    pity that the 18Z GFS is not used because its output is very different from 12Z after October 18. The IPO index would certainly dropped
  20. neige57
    I wonder where it comes from this surge since the last GFS 12Z, there is absolutely no change on the side of the Arctic compared to the 6Z GFS, at least up to 240h
  21. neige57
    you're really late Gavin, it's been over a year since we discussed it and you did not notice ?? OPI index works much better than just watching anomalies Stt as you usually do every year, that's not how it works. I think you should look at what is actually OPI before saying that there is no convincing evidence
  22. neige57
    I forgot 2013/2014 winter that is failing because the AO was of 0.3 on average in December / January when the IPO index was 1.6. Despite this, the VP was as expected very compact in the first part of winter which was well planned final anyway
  23. neige57
    1990/1991 Winter is a cold but mainly thanks to February winter. January was unusually mild in Europe with a positive AO and December 1990 was cold that first half, very soft in the second half and especially at Christmas with a compact VP. Finally, the AO was 1.0, OPI index was 0.6 (rounded 0.55) is very close
  24. neige57
    Thanks I had fun checking the results of the AO according to the OPI index and no real surprise, I board found only four errors on 38 years tested, it is the winter 1982/1983, 1983/1984, 1998/1999 and 1999/2000. So I board not taken as reference trismestre December / January / February, but only in December / January because these are the two months that the OPI index may be the most important. In the end, it's amazing to see how the numbers are very close between the AO and the IPO index, it works wonderfully
  25. neige57
    Moreover, it seemed that Riccardo had said that the second part of winter would be different for the reasons I mentioned. After the VP was so compact in the first part of winter that waves 1 and 2 propagating at regular intervals could not cause strong changes in atmospheric circulation during the second part of the winter 2013/2014
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