neige57

I especially think the OPI index appears more in the first part of winter, from mid-November to mid-January. Beyond this area, the trend OPI October away from the second half of January, the brightness begins to point the nose of the northern hemisphere so the waves waves tend to increase with time, be accentuated in February / March. So I think the IPO is very important to predict the capacity of VP on the first part of winter when there is no sunshine on the Arctic and not the entire winter. Now, if we take the average of the AO on the first part of winter and the strength and the inclination of the VPS, we note that the prediction made ​​by the OPI index was very good

I am absolutely in total désacord with all the messages I've read. There is absolutely no but then absolutely no correlation between the NAO / AO in October and the following winter. I do not understand how anyone can believe these things the. In this case, make a chart going back to 1950 (since the NAO goes back to 1950) and you will see that it does not work. Some past examples: October 2000: NAO + next winter neutral NAO October 2001: Neutral following winter NAO: NAO + October 2002: NAO- following winter NAO neutral October 2003: NAO- following winter NAO neutral October 2004: NAO- next Winter: NAO + October 2005: NAO- next Winter: NAO- October 2006: NAO - next Winter: NAO + October 2007: NAO + Next Winter: NAO + October 2008: neutral NAO following winter NAO neutral October 2009: NAO - next winter NAO- October 2010: NAO - next winter NAO- October 2011: NAO + following winter NAO + October 2012: NAO- following winter NAO neutral October 2013: NAO - next winter NAO + just by going up since 2000, we see that it did not work this theory, or even the hot dry October and cold winter followed theory And I've never seen GP utter a word on the NAO in October

it is mainly the period mid December / mid January is concerned. Last winter, the OPI was 1.7, the AO index was 0.3 (1.5 in December, -1 in January). In the end it had been quite right since the polar vortex was often very compact

you imagine if it worked like that, but the forecast would be so easy that it would be a breeze. Not all of this does not work, there is absolutely no correlation. Above all, go back on a cycle of 30 years is much too small. It should at least go back over a century. And even go back over a century, you will see that there is no real correlation between a warm autumn followed by mild winter and vice versa

I remain very optimistic about this winter that will not at all a repeat from last year. Anyway, we now have a very strong negative QBO near record to 30 hPa. Currently, it is around -26 as in early fall 2012 or fall 2005 and this is only the beginning. A strong negative QBO associated with El Nino Modoki are usually herald strong blockings in northern latitudes

we will soon open a new section regarding forecasts of the stratosphere, I think about the middle of October

increased SO2 caused by the Icelandic volcano last month could increase ozone in these places. Thus, the stratosphere would have more ease to warm. Here is the current ozone and the difference from last year is eloquent on Iceland / Greenland September 20, 2013: september 20, 2014: Regarding QBO, it is now in the full negative 5 to 50 included hpa: It is certain that winter 2014/2015 should be significantly different from 2013/2014 for the simple reason that the current settings (QBO, ENSO, Stt etc) are in total contrast with 2013 and conducive to wave surges waves into the stratosphere regular way. Stay tuned...

The situation in the northern hemisphere does not correspond to the real MJO phase of these next time. Phases 1, 2 and 3 are in favor of NAO + but the negative NAO will dominate and which may dominate this month. MJO phase much less impact in summer than winter in Europe http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

The QBO is already past in its negative phase since April 20 http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf10/ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif His first negative phase will be May so a month earlier than in 2009 On the summer I not see him warm and dry but disturbed, often moist and cool but warm in the central Europe. QBO and ENSO + are not conducive to stable summers on Western Europe in the image of the summer of 1972 (same indices)

It is difficult to know more at the moment in any case. Waiting for the summer to learn more about the potential strength of El Nino

Note that the QBO is past its phase Is 30 hpa week. Phase East has begun and is expected to continue until at least summer 2015 With the return of El Nino and the negative QBO, this is the return of the northern blocks ( NAO-). Winter 2014/2015 could be an interesting follow winter and early indications are to monitor during the month of October

We were well on the winter regime of Nina as illustrated by these anomalies Stt January: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.1.30.2014.gif Moreover, the low Nina had even strengthened during the month of February. the warm waters of the Pacific began in earnest only during the month of March Regarding mild and wet winter, this was caused by the strong positive QBO and low Nina with a strong dipole At present it has the return of El Nino but for me personal, I do not see a strong El Nino as some think, but an El Nino same magnitude as 2009/2010 or 2006/2007. The cold PDO does not allow strong El Nino to take their place in this cycle