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Godber 1

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Posts posted by Godber 1

    Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

    Okay, so...the direction and exit point of the trough hasn't really changed much in the output, the differences in precipitation boundaries are to down to circulation. If we take the direction of the trough and combine the northern limit of the precipitation in Ireland across and down through England, you get something like below - quite similar to recent output to be honest. The northern limit would be somewhere around Stoke. However, the heaviest falls would be across through the West Midlands and down into the Home counties. 

    The southern limit would be the black line as the precipitation is above the circulation. There won't be issues with marginality for the vast majority of us so where the front stalls, pivots and slowly sinks south, I can see some significant snow falling. 

    This technique worked a few weeks ago when Wales got hit by quite a bit of snow, however...I am in no way saying this will work again!

     image.thumb.png.6e535c12eb4aa78050aff84fcf968e73.png

    works for me.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    I too am wondering why theres so much despondency... just look at the current GFS and ECM runs for day ten... they are building significant blocking both over Greenland and Scandinavia, features which are either currently absent of weak/transient. Theres a run of Easterlies to our North, and the (addmitedly) vigorous jet stream is still tracking south of the UK. All this is consistently predicted now to happen before the months out. The trend is good for cold.

    Not sure why some people are thinking the SSW has failed or will continue to fail. Those (sorry for the cliche) building blocks, are expected to be in place. It really wouldnt take much of a seismic shift for all that proper cold to arrive at our doorstep although we may have to wait until next month.

    IMHO theres no pattern change to lasting mild, but perhaps a stormy changable mobile pattern with plenty of very cold snowy incursions if not a Big Freeze itself.

     

    ecm day 10.png

    gfs 10 day.png

    loving your positivity and 'mini' RAMP.

    • Like 2

    Midlands Regional Discussion 17/06/2020 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

    I must admit I'm still baffled why folks get excited by a potential shower of Snow. Unless it's a good 4 inches then it's pointless as a shower simply disappears as quick as it comes. Lol.

    whether it's a flake, shower or a foot of snow, it's the joy of just watching it fall and hopefully accumulating.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    STUNNING outputs this morning...

    I'm so happy possibly every post I make today would  be ramptastic ...

    So I will sit back and enjoy the input of others today...

    EC is just beautiful ...

    Merry Christmas to everyone on this superb forum. I'm pretty certain most of us will see snow before the end of the year, just how much is anybodys guess?  Loving the word RAMPTASTIC.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
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