Woollymummy
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Posts posted by Woollymummy
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It actually did look quite promising a couple of weeks ago but some of us didn't say anything back then as it would have been shouted down as being far too far in the future to happen. It is not unusual for February to be cold and snowy! This is what I hope will happen!
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Just a little question and please forgive/be tolerant if it is obvious, but if we get a northerly wind in a week's time, is it going to be surface air coming towards us from e.g. Kiruna or somewhere northern, in which case can we get an idea of what temperature it will be for us by looking at their current weather outlook? or would our air in a week's time be coming from the high atmosphere above Kiruna etc? In which case, where would their surface air end up?
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I emailed the office, the outreach officer Marcia said it would be up on their website soon.
I was wondering if they will release a video of the presentation later.
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This winter, I think the jetstream has been more meridional than last year, hasn't it? In that sense, maybe some of the OPI and Cohen predictions were not completely wrong......the weather presenters certainly seem to show more of one and less of the other this year :-)
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I'm confused guys. It's the end of January. So how on earth can a chart like this:
only return uppers like this?
Come on - I mean, only -4C uppers in the Faroes???
Because the whole of the sea near the Scandinavian coastline is warmer than usual, possibly?
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We'd have a natural disaster in the UK if we had those wind speeds at ground level! That is the jet stream forecast for late next week, around 5-9 miles above our heads. It could spawn some vicious depressions as Ian F has already mentioned.
I know where the jetstream is
but thanks for letting any novices know in case they weren't aware! it is just more likely that if it kicks off like that, we are likely to see some little gales pop up again, aren't we? if so, is a week in advance too far away to work out where/when?-
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This looks windy....at this timescale, is it likely to be windy but we are not sure exactly where? or is the uncertainty more to do with whether or not it will be this windy?
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Is this a fault or a real thing - a wiggle in all the isobars along the Greenwich meridian up from us towards the Arctic - how odd!
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I remember that Thundersnow, rain, hail, snow falling on wet, hail-covered ground created an instant winter wonderland .
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rest assured, when it snows here, it is great; Oxfordshire had amazing snow two years ago, and almost every year before that since we have been here, although I probably blanked the years that it didn't from my memory. Old golf course at the top of Boar's Hill is the sledging place to be if it ever happens.....
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Good to see someone else local on here!
The top of Boars hill must be quite high, i'd take a guess at 150m? Could well see some wet snow soon when that heavy PPN hits in about 10 mins!
ha ha ha , I can't afford to live on the top, I live in view of some of the big mansions though, they make my garden look grand
. I cannot be bothered to go and look out at more rain, so I will have to check online tomorrow to see if it snowed in the end! -
Boar's Hill, Oxon. Having had gorgeous frost this morning and sunshine today, and now a disappointing warm non-snow event, I think I would rather skip the snow and just have dry, cold and sunny weather from now until spring. The sledges can go back to accumulating leaves in the garden like they used to.
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I would hope this forum would keep going even if the models improve!My concern is, not just the current trend away from a prolonged spell, but through the recent tricky synoptics, have accurate the Met Office appear to have been.
If the access to the models they currently enjoy continue to enable the kind of accurate info that IF has been putting up here all through the winter, then this forum could die a death! At least we can usually always compensate for dire looking outlooks from the models by speculating that an SSW or suchlike will dramatically change things....but imagine seeing such outlooks and then having a reliably accurate Meto confirm they have a high confidence in them!!!
A question about the forecast for US weather, it seems to be changing in the next week to have less extremes of temperature across the continent; will that mean a slow-down of the Jetstream? Every time they have a great big freeze we end up with westerlies and gales, so can we maybe hope that if there is a US warm-up soon, we may get a chance at some Arctic air?
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I am interested in the possibility that this pattern we are in at the moment is round 1 in a little test of winter which has so far chilled the north of UK quite well, but has not completely changed the South into a "snowfield" (although we did catch a snow shower this morning). What is the likelihood that the European continent and Scandinavia have not yet chilled themselves enough to cool us down in the event that the winds start to allow airflow from the East, and that what may be happening is a chill, followed by a warming, then followed by a freeze at the end of the month/beginning of April? Is it possible that although the minute details of what might or might not happen on an hourly/daily basis is difficult to pinpoint, the general trend is already appearing and that whatever is happening a few ridges round the globe to our West is going to bring us a more intensely cold spell in a couple of weeks?
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In the mean time, here is some light after-dinner reading material from the netweather library, in case you are new to these things, like me!:
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/
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This is for Reykjavik next w/e, no idea if it will be right though....
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That is beautiful. And so much easier to understand in 3D. Thankyou!
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Is all this new change big enough to qualify as a "cold heart" or do we need to see sustained cold into February? I still want the OPI to win...,
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I would prefer it as it is, it works well when people are respectful and objective, I think the only thing I would change is the title: stick to the the basics of "Model Output Discussion" and the time or part of the season, but avoid descriptors which include a particular type of weather arriving. We are all going to turn up to check it anyway, but it makes it more inclusive to leave it up to the models to show what the weather will be, rather than the title.
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So the two sketches, I am trying to visualise it, with a single vortex the wind is air falling towards the centre low , dense, thin bit in the middle, and when the vortex is split it makes a thick warmer hump in the middle, and the air rolls downhill on either side to the respective vortex so we are hoping or expecting to get some air out of the disturbed bit in the middle? UK is the splatted bit at the bottom of the second picture. Is this right or muddled?
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Being a Polar Vortex, he would be the best person to know what is happening up there, great name and nice to have a visit from such an influential phenomenon :-)
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but thanks for letting any novices know in case they weren't aware! it is just more likely that if it kicks off like that, we are likely to see some little gales pop up again, aren't we? if so, is a week in advance too far away to work out where/when?
. I cannot be bothered to go and look out at more rain, so I will have to check online tomorrow to see if it snowed in the end!
OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Quote from the TIL -OPI site:
"Specifically over Europe, our OPI evolution and October pattern analysis, suggest that the first cold anti-zonal period should arrive with good probability in early winter, followed by the onset of a stronger Polar Jet over the North Atlantic and a milder but more unsettled period. This period with higher zonality should be interrupted by a new increasing of the wave activity over the North Atlantic, with a renewed colder pattern; differently from the first period, this second colder period could be characterized by a lower anti-zonality, with higher probabilities for arctic air masses to reach lower latitudes."
........are we nearly on that bit yet?
see the page:https://app.til.it/opi/