[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

Wolverhampton has had a few rumbles thunder, heavy thundery showers and some hail.  I did not see any lightening but I suspect there was some.  Going very dark again. 

[Observations Of Nature Through The Seasons.]

Unfortunately I don't have a super duper camera and can only take snaps with my ipad or phone so I can't really get the quality of photos others do sadly.  I have a deer at the bottom of my garden and noticed the other day they have a little fawn, which was somewhere in the undergrowth.  The photo was taken from the top of my garden, which was the closest I could get without scaring them, 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 hours ago, TEITS said:

I agree with the rest of your post. However my argument with the above is if we struggle to use the signals to make a forecast then how can we be sure we are correct in analysing how it went wrong. For example even last years beast from the east seems to cause some debate whether it was caused by the SSW or MJO or both? Even when I look back at the incredible Greenland High during Dec 2009,2010 I am not sure what allowed such blocking for Dec.

Love the puddycat TEITS   i wouldn't know where to start with any of it but I'm sure all you good folk on here with so much knowledge will make a good attempt to decipher it.  I wonder whether it's like having all your ducks sitting pretty in a row and along comes an eagle and takes them all out.  I'm sure it's not that simple but is it a case of you can have so many positive variables working towards a cold pattern but along comes a negative variable, which is so influential, it over rides the other positive ones.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Am posting this with my flak jacket and helmet on just in case I get shot at, however, as someone who reads the threads daily summer  and winter I feel the unkind posts criticising those who have tried to understand and use the background signals to give an indication of the winter weather are a little unfair.  Unless I am mistaken yes there was talk of some major cold and snow and isn't that what Austria and parts of North America have experienced?  What would the negative posters be posting today if that cold blob of vortex had landed over the UK instead of Chicago?  I don't recall anyone saying extreme cold would drop on any particular post code in the UK for definite.  As @knocker says there is so much information to learn from this winter, the background signals etc that did or didn't come together favourably for the UK and all these variables will absolutely add to the body of knowledge for the future.  

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

18 hours ago, Catacol said:

 few  dozen such spells that really sank into my memory. Feb 81 when a child in Glasgow I will never forget. 85, 87, 91, 96, 10.....and some not bad stuff in 09, 12 and 13. 96 to 09 was 12 years of utter cold weather despair. l

Although I can't recall how the MetO performed back then  I remember 79 well and the run of cold winters that followed in the early 80's.  I was 20 in 1979 so in the flush of youth going out to disco's (everyone cringe) in flimsy summer clothes in freezing weather late at night when dad said I should be in bed!  I'd even throw wellies in the back of the mini and call to check on the horses at 2am on my way home. Sometimes I expected to see a polar bear or two across the fields as it really was so cold and snow, my feet and hands got so cold.  We had real fun in those snowy winters bombarding my ex's car with snowballs while out on a local pub crawl as the weather was not suitable for driving and I even remember someone coming to the pub on his ski's. What happened to change these winters.  the next winters in my memory are 09/10 and December 2010.   It's the same with thunderstorms, I call recall  some real thunder days - they are a rare event around here in recent summers.  It does seem to me also the MetO longer range forecasts have not been useful at all 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

Still just about snowing here but we are quite high up here in Penn

[Focussed Model Discussion]

13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It is grim. Clearly the Jedi have returned in force. There are all kinds of theories out there at the moment as to why we have repeatedly failed to see any HLB. They are all interesting, and in the dreadful months of summer heat while we hide from burning, sweating and heat-induced lethargy we can examine them with a sharp eye and clear head (assuming air con....) Right now I’m still looking at a set of signals that should be creating a different hemispheric long wave....but are not. Masiello has admitted to a bit of a bust in the current phase, Furtado looks on shaky ground and GP has disappeared. And underpinning it for me is a frustration - if we cannot develop our handbook with any accuracy and place a degree of trust in the signals we are seeing then we really are only “hope casting” as some describe, and that sticks in the craw. We want to be better than that.

We have an approximate two week window to see whether any hint of the winter forecast can be saved. If we get to mid month with no cold block and no strong suggestion from the ENS of one just around the corner then 2018/19 will have to go down as one almighty bust. Sidney can then leave his nuts in warm storage for another 12 months.

Never thought I would post in any model thread for fear of being blasted by some members but I do read daily what all the knowledgeable folk post in all these threads in the hope of learning from you all (my science is more biology).....and of course looking forward to any cold snowy weather coming our way as well.  However, as disappointing as it is turning out to be I really do hope you all won't be hard on yourselves as things so far haven't turned out as positive as you all were thinking with background signals and SSW's.  To have understood and gathered as much knowledge as you all have, to share the knowledge with others and articulate it all so well has truly been a delight to read over the winter months and I really applaud you all for it.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Oh dear.  Having worked most of my life for public facing services, I really do understand how cautious (particularly in these modern days) one has to be to avoid any possible criticism or backlash I really do, however, there must be some sore bottoms at the met with all the fence sitting.  Every base is covered in that summary other than hot sunny weather - rain, wind, snow, frost, fog, and mild weather   I realise fhey can only forecast what they think they can see and if its not clear to them I see the issue but why they bother with these forecasts I'll never know.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

I'm reading the hunt for cold, strat thread and other weather related threads daily but as I'm not a professional meteorologist or one of the exceptionally knowleagable amateurs on here I don't post.  However, FWIW it seems to me the met are really hedging their bets with these forecasts, which to me screams .....they really do not know what weather type will prevail.

[What temperature is your heating set to?]

41 minutes ago, Snipper said:

What do you  use to clean the glass in the stove door? One of my stoves is nearly 40 years old so some stuff glued on and I doubt anything will shift it. 

The chap who delivered some solid fuel says the best thing he uses is a multipurpose wipe when the glass is cold. Just a cheap and cheerful wipe seems to work pretty well, particular on another stove that is not used much. 

I dip a damp wettish cloth or kitchen wipe in the ashes of the fire from the previous night and use it to clean the glass.  The chappie who installed the multifuel burner gave me this trick and it has worked a treat for me now for 5-years - the glass is clean.

My heating thermostat (situated in the hall) is set to 15 but I do use the burner as the main source of heat.

 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

3 hours ago, Essan said:

Sadly I was wrong (here anyway) - just 1mm today from patchy drizzle.   At least the washing is drying nicely in the breeze  

My month's total is now up to 9mm, most of which fell in yesterday's thunderstorm.  And it looks like that's it for a couple more weeks at least ....    Means I am still in partial drought (ave of no more than 0.25mm/day) from the start of June.

We had a fair amount of rain here this morning but nothing biblical. Although we do need a great deal more to really help the gardens etc recover from the recent drought what rain we thankfully had will certainly help the gardens along especially with another hot spell looming on the horizon.  It wasn't enough to top my pond up so I'm having to use (treated) tap water to get it back up to its normal level.  It was really cool in the howling wind this morning but its noticeably more muggy this afternoon since the wind has dropped.   The wind buffeted the apple tree somewhat and some apples have fallen prematurely but at least my beans stayed upright  

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

10 minutes ago, Essan said:

Should see some decent frontal rain tomorrow though

Thanks.....and hope so    just had a further blink and you've missed it heavy shower.... sun out again now 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

All very disappointing so far.  Earlier today we had heavy/torrential rain forecast for Penn in Wolverhampton - where did that go then    We've had a few showers overnight and occasionally through the day but really nothing of any note so the gardens are still bone dry - what little rain we've had has really done very little.  That pesky orangey thing in the sky is showing itself again now  So hope tomorrow delivers some meaningful rain.  It has been very windy.  I have taken the hanging baskets down for the time being and have had to tie the runner beans 4 ways to keep them stable and prevent them from blowing over completely. 

[Who else cant wait for this heatwave to end??]

11 hours ago, Lucy said:

 

That's it, I'm going to Google "rain dance" see if that works. Lol. Desperate measures. 

Lol, I've already done this.  Found I think it was a north American rain dance and performed it in the kitchen one evening last week..................my cats thought I had lost the plot and........nope it didn't work!

[Who else cant wait for this heatwave to end??]

I'm with you snowgirl30, can't wait for this weather to break and go away,  I really find the constant heat and dry too much and it does aggravate my health issues somewhat.  I have a fairly large garden and trying to keep the garden going on my own in this dry weather is exhausting and I think I have lost the battle - a number of plants have simply frazzled in the sun.   If the heat was interspersed with thundery break downs to appease the gardens it might help but we've not had that.  My friends husband is a small farmer and he is struggling with crops and livestock and is desperate to see rain. The crop yields will be down due to lack of water .....so no doubt some food stuffs will go up in price.  The potatoes went up in Sainsburys last week. I also have woodland and fields of crops on two sides of my bungalow and it is so dry it has worried me and my neighbours.   Quite a few people I know who do love summer and heat are really fed up with it now. I am dreading what this week will throw at us......need a break from it now.

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

We have lovely steady refreshing rain.  Everything in the garden getting a much welcomed soaking.....hopefully more to come tomorrow too. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

Clouds to the left of me, clouds to the right.....oh how I wish they would get their act together and produce some meaningful rain........

 

 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

The lightning around here has been insane.  It did calm down for a short while but as Gord has said it seems to be kicking off again and to me seems even more fierce.  I've had to rescue my terrified cat from down the road, I had to drive down to pick him up hecwas so scared.  Wouldn't mind but I tried to get him in 3 times before the storm started earlier  

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

Bigger flakes descending now, sky looks full of it.  Very gusty as well.  View from my patio of the snow falling

 

[If you could travel back in time to relive a memorable weather event]

One of the cold snowy winters of old.  I was just over 3 for the winter of 62//63 and have a distant memory of snow piled up against the back door.  The winters of the late 70's I recall would be worth revisiting and of course would love another 2010.  I can also remember some good thunderstorms around these parts in the early 1990's, one in particular that rumbled all night and well into the following morning, we just don't seem to get thunderstorms like that anymore for some reason.  

[More skin in the game]

Not that I'm a fan of leather but yes I think I would.  Would never countenance wearing real fur as I only like my fur on its original animal models so its no difference to wearing synthetic fur to me.  The only real leather items I possess is my saddle and bridle.  Have given up riding recently it seems leather saddles are now hard to sell,  synthetic saddles with tree altering capabilities appear to be the way to go 

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards]

couldn't open the door too wide as I didn't want the cats getting out in it, but its torrential, tortoise is out in though 

 

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards]

We have a storm, very heavy rain with occasional hail with thunder and lightening.....yay!!

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards]

aha, 3 rumbles of thunder and a very sharp heavy shower, does that take our area out the no storm club?? 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

well, we had a fair few heavy bursts of rain in Tettenhall where I work but no thunder.  Got home to Penn at teatime to be informed they all had a loud clap of thunder amongst all the heavy rain......one clap only....  but its a start!!!!