h2005__uk__
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Posts posted by h2005__uk__
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Essex unusually missed out on the peak of the heat in late June due to a E/SE wind. The forecast for the heat next weekend again has a SE wind for Essex. Will this restrict the temps again?
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1 hour ago, Earthshine said:
Mean maximum temperatures have barely risen since April! I think we're only about 2.5C warmer than April which goes to show how warm April was and how abysmal this July has been. I remember numerous periods of 23C weather in April and it's struggled to reach that high here at all this July.
That's an interesting way of looking at it. For comparison, this July's average max has been about 4C warmer than April here in Essex. The gap should be about 9C based on long-term averages. Last year the gap between Apr and Jul was 10C; in 2018 it was 13C.
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13 hours ago, MP-R said:
Minimum of 10.2C last night. Only one or two nights were warmer than that in winter.
Lovely and sunny, but as mentioned, quite a September feel.
I agree - I thought earlier on it felt September-ish. It was sunny and around 20C so very pleasant, but the poor-ish weather lately makes it feel like the end of the summer's here now after the sunny spring and hot weather at the end of June. It doesn't feel like late July when the average here should easily hit 23C.
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So far this month the average max I've recorded is 19.7C, markedly below the overall July average of 22.9C for here.
I've not recorded anything above 21.3C for 14 days in a row.
I checked my records (starting Sept 2013) for summer spells of maximums below 21.5C in summer months, lasting 10 days or more. There've been 6:
Aug 2014 - 14 days in a row
Aug 2015 - 10 days
Jul 2017 - 10 days
Jun 2019 - 14 days
Jun 2020 - 10 days
Jul 2020 - 14 days so farGiven the forecast for tomorrow is 20C, I expect this month will deliver the longest spell of <21.5C temperatures I've recorded - and the first summer to have two such spells of coolness!
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8 hours ago, markyo said:
air con is set to 16c. Just can't stand a warm bedroom! It would be impossible for me to sleep in a room over 20c. For me summer months are hell for sleeping,also blinking expensive!!!!
Agreed! I have a portable air con unit in mine which is usually set to 18/19C and it does the trick. Anything above that and it's too warm for me to sleep even with just a thin sheet over me.
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16 hours ago, B87 said:
Only directly on the coast. Easterly winds from a warmish sea in summer won't be too much of a problem inland.
It definitely suppressed temperatures even in inland Essex at the end of June during that hot spell.
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3 hours ago, B87 said:
That is tabloid rubbish, though long range forecast does show it turning warmer around 20th:
London weather forecast 14 days - Rain risk - Wind direction - HDD CDD
WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UKLondon weather forecast 14 days - Rain risk - Wind direction - HDD CDDAn easterly wind is showing up though which could suppress temperatures, if that forecast is right.
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This evening (here in Chelmsford, Essex) really felt like the end to a miserable autumn day - fairly dull, cold (13C) and drizzling. It's a shame because it was very sunny this morning.
It wasn't too bad a few days ago when it was fairly humid and sunny with temperatures just below 20C - it felt pleasant because of the sun, plus the wind took the edge off the humidity (although it got a bit too blowy at times).
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How can the MetO say over the last few days that, for the end of July, "temperatures are expected to be above average overall"... then today, for the same period, say "temperatures generally around average or slightly below".
What's the point of their extended outlook? Is it ever right?
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What caused the first two days of this 'heatwave' to have an easterly wind? Isn't it more usual to get a S/SW wind when heat comes from the continent?
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6 hours ago, Relativistic said:
The 1976 date record of 33.5C is sure to go.
Looks like the max today was at Heathrow... but with 33.4C!
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5 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:
I doubt if we got anywhere near it tbh, didn't feel as hot as yesterday (mind you, I love the heat!) even with less of an onshore breeze/gale. My outdoor thermometer was struggling to reach 24C at 2pm
The highest in the East was Lakenheath which squeezed exactly 30.0C out of the heat. Most others didn't get above 29C.
Looks hopeful for tomorrow due to the wind being more southerly, as mentioned above, but it depends on cloud cover due to storms bubbling up.
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Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk are again struggling to reach 30C and I doubt they will, looking at the 1pm/2pm temps.
Cavendish (Suffolk) and Writtle (Essex) are often among the hottest places.
Why have they missed out on the peak of the heat this week? Is it because the winds have been E/SE rather than S/SW?
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1 hour ago, Coopsy said:
I do say this every year so may sound like a broken record lol.
I’m still not sure why the vast majority of people don’t get air con. I use mine easily 3/4 months of the year and they heat too so we use that another 3/4 months.
At £2500 for 3 bedrooms it was a great investment. They even offered finance at around £48 a month I think so affordable for most.
Even a portable one at £300 is a great starter solution.Trust me - you’d be looking forward to those hot summer days with a smidge of smugness knowing you can sleep at night lol.
I think the same every year. I picked up one 2nd hand for £60 and got another one, new, for £220.
They work well, particularly in smaller rooms, and I got a south-facing room down from 30C to 18C by last night. They don't get huge amounts of use in British summers so should last many years.
Even if you spent £300 on one and it lasted ten years (my 2nd hand one's 21 years old!), that's £30 per summer + cost of running at about 50p for 6-8 hours. If you can't afford it then it's well worth saving up until you can in my view.
52 minutes ago, seb said:No need for aircon. I was looking into it and in the end decided to tryan air cooler a few days ago.
......
One thing is important - you have to leave a window open, even if just a little bit. Otherwise everything feels damp.
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The resulting rise in humidity is the problem with air coolers, as they work less well once it gets more humid as they're used, plus the UK is a fairly humid place to start with. For price vs. effectiveness, I think portable air-con is better value.
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Is it likely East Anglia will be a bit hotter tomorrow, given 30C doesn't seem to have been reached?
The weather apps, websites and models still seem unsure which day between now and Friday will be the hottest for the eastern counties.
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No official station in Norfolk, Essex or Suffolk has hit 30C as of the 4pm hourly readings, but one or two were just over 29C so the actual maximum may have just scraped 30C.
Maybe tomorrow will be a tad hotter for the East?
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1 hour ago, Singularity said:
Feels like the model runs are pulling options out of a hat at the moment, with respect to what goes on Fri-Sat.
Yes, the usual weather websites/apps have been flip-flopping a bit for the E/SE, with this week's max for many areas outside of London flipping between 27 and 32C. Usually they'd be more certain at this timeframe, although they've now mostly settled on Friday as the hottest for this area.
E.g. for Chelmsford it's currently BBC 32C (Fri), WeatherPro 31C (Fri), weather.com 30C (Fri), MeteoBlue 29C (Fri & Sat), Metcheck 29C (Wed), MetO 29C (Fri), WeatherOnline 27C (Fri).
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2 hours ago, tesaro said:
I’m pretty sure that Cambridge Botanical Gardens isn’t an official Weather recording Station. Their reading had to be verified before it was made an official record. If anywhere like Gravesend had exceeded this Temp we would of heard about it..
It is official, just a manual one which is why there was a delay in getting the readings and verifying them. I think the media would've been interested had it been announced on the day, but they weren't that interested once the verified reading came through about a week later and there was other news to worry about!
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It's looking likely then that the hottest temps could be on Friday then? The heat gets shunted eastwards by then but there are a lot more 29Cs.
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The models suggest it'll be a bit of a knife-edge for certain places in the E/SE next week as to whether they'll tap into the highest temperatures. However, given maximums are often underestimated, it's probably more likely than it appears?!
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If heat-seekers report temperatures lower than they were expecting next week, no doubt some will say "oh well, 24/25/26C is still useable".
This is the equivalent of snow being forecast in the winter, then it's actually 7C and dry... and someone says "oh well, 7C and dry is still useable".
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How do you get the Netweather UKV charts?
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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
30c Wednesday in the SE on the GFS. Dust down the BBQ folks.
Why's it showing only 24-26C as far west as Cambridge when London's touching 30C? I know London's often hottest but usually you'd see at least high 20s across the eastern counties when London's that warm.
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30 minutes ago, Leo97t said:
They look pretty hot to me I'm not sure what your expecting
The point I was making is that in the June hot spell, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk peaked at 26-29C while areas west got into the low 30s. This is unusual. In July, the more usual thing happened where Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk also tapped into the low 30s. You can clearly see the difference on the maps.
Model output discussion - into July 2020
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
What's causing the easterly winds in the east during this plume? The same happened at the end of June. Normally they're southerly.