Nouska

That sums it up well @Man With Beard .... and therein lies the problem - longer range output not able to identify these 'polka dots' of upper troughing. Cannot remember which year it was when a similar thing occurred - all mid/longer range output was pointing to a nice high pressure situation over most of the European view but as time got nearer, these little disturbances appeared and continued to meander around.

Deterministic is really underlining the base of the spread. Plenty room for improvement - at least I hope so - in the UK with the grandchildren and hoping for better than that for outdoor activities.

The likely summer SST profile is rare in the last century, what sort of influence will this have on our summer? The tropical analogues that Levi Cowan offers on his latest video blog are not great. Those factors and a possibility of record low Arctic ice - the so frequent, of late, uncharted territory bit - where will it take us in our summer fortunes. For those who don't have time or inclination to watch, top analogues are '85 and '88 - '70, '73, and '07 are also in the running.

Prognosis from the Mexican weather bureau - no text discussion but they see the EPAC more active than the Atlantic. http://smn.cna.gob.mx/tools/DATA/Ciclones%20Tropicales/Proyecci%C3%B3n/2016.pdf

That's my fault - he was quoting me. What I meant was that at EC32 initiation at 00Z Thursday, this was the day ten prognosis .... .... just a couple of runs later, a very different picture emerged.

I'm not aware of any hi-res output for that far ahead but he'll probably have access to more of the ECM suite than we do. The EC32 was showing warmth for the last week of the month but as that run was initiated prior to the big swing in model output, it has to be viewed as suspect till the run next Tuesday. This was central Europe on week two from the Thursday run - anticipating the pattern would include a warm UK in part. This mornings EPS mean (day 15) has average 850 temps for the bulk of the UK and the Z500 is also looking to be the average north south divide - not seeing any indication of strong, warm ridging. MSLP spread day 15

Some folk, from elsewhere, will know that I've long used the analogues for the CET competition - sometimes good, some times spectacularly awful. This month and last showed huge diversity in the likely figure with no middle ground at all. I suppose this was to reflect the meridionality of the pattern - high was mainly on the up side and low was reflecting the down side of Atlantic ridging. I had hoped to join this competition but didn't realise the year ran from December to December.

Looks like the older version of the GFS had a better handle on next week than the new one. The MJO has finally moved into active phase and it just happens to be doing so in the Indian Ocean - phase 3. This is a phase that favours troughing over us but if it moves swiftly to 4, as the GFS shows, a much nicer future awaits for the late stages of the month and into June. There will be other drivers for sure but as for now, the models look to be responding to tropical phasing. P3 P4

Power point presentation of the above paper - gives some illustrations of the model findings. http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/meetings/20160208/presentations/cvcwg/lsun.pdf Interesting diversity of opinion on this subject.

Looking forward to seeing the videos and reports from the home team. Meantime, if its OK to post here, a super video on the Keraunos site. http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2016/mai/tornade-wray-colorado-7-mai-2016-etats-unis-tornado

The ECM has been a good bit warmer than the GFS in the means but I noticed today's 00Z EPS have a much cooler look to them from day ten to fifteen. Hopefully it will not materialise as this cold troughing is not doing any favours for the growing season.

06Z AROME has first strong returns showing for between 3 and 4 pm. First season with the availability of this model which has convective activity as a primary focus - will be interesting to see how accurate it is. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=129&map=31

If I remember correctly, Ian wasn't expecting a SSW. The fact there was an early March final warming - the strongest in the limited record - has probably shifted the balance from the westerly angle. The resulting negative AO and NAO has also had an impact on the Atlantic SST profile: negative anomaly is warming out at present. I see he has made no mention of the rapid ENSO transition in his summer forecast - will be interesting to see where that goes as there are very few comparative analogues and none with a rapidly dwindling Arctic ice profile.

That's an interesting one.... Doesn't bode well for our summers if it is a response to Arctic ice melt as it will be a reinforcing signal from here on in.

I've been looking through the analogues and historical charts for May; a strong resemblance to 1947 (CET 13.5C) in how the modelling is panning out for the first fortnight. I wonder if we will see a similar ending - if so, a very warm month could be on the cards. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=19&month=5&hour=0&year=1947&map=3&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

That's even lower than the analogues were pointing to ( high sevens to low eights). What do they suggest for May? Less clear cut as some thirteens in there but on balance, more in the high tens and low elevens.

Indeed! Just goes to prove how difficult anticipating the weather type is. There was no SSW in the winter of 97/98 - how much difference would that have made to the following spring and early summer? Reading the link written by Amy Butler, the strongest and earliest final warming in the (limited) record - what impact will that continue to have during summer and could these wave patterns reappear as soon as cold season returns to the NH.

Some of the newer research that has been linked in the Strat. thread points to a greater likelihood of negative NAO in the first three years of up-slope in the solar cycle - greater than that of the down-slope. I'm guessing this is because it takes a while for the energetic particle activity the research is based on to wind down; that aspect is still active even though the SSN is dropping fast.

The 97/98 Nino was at solar minimum Looking at quick transitions from Nino to Nina (during summer), 2010 would be a good fit but as there are so many other factors to take into consideration, I doubt it would be of much help in second guessing any synoptic pattern.

The cold is departing with a sting in its tail!.... Another good job of forecasting from the ARPEGE model.

According to Meteo France three month outlook, the switch in ENSO state is causing a chaotic response in seasonal models - to such an extent - that no scenario is envisaged. The quote below which I've put through Google translate. Forecast for the quarter May, June and July 2016 on Europe and mainland France For several months, the presence of a strong El Niño phenomenon has probably improved the performance of seasonal forecasts to our latitudes. With the disappearance of this constraint, forecasts are more chaotic. Thus no majority option emerges from the analysis of models for seasonal forecasting centers around the world over most of Europe. http://www.meteofrance.com/accueil/previsions-saisonnieres The cooler prospects for western coasts are probably still tied to the negative SST anomaly. Edit to add a table of historic seasonal ENSO conditions - there are very few years where such a switch, as forecasted, takes place over the high summer period. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

For a good part of the country it was certainly cool overall and on many occasions it would be classed as cold. Even the SE was just average on the last thirty year climatology.

I noticed that but the EUROSIP (amalgamation of MF, ECM, UKMO and NCEP) have the cold pool dissipating by end of August. Perhaps the addition of the NCEP component is helping lessen the negative anomalies of the other agencies. Interestingly, the cold pool reappears by October - does this indicate a calm anti-cyclonic picture over the summer Atlantic and as soon as autumn storms stir up the surface, the cold resurfaces? EUROSIP for August and October.

I think I am too... All through winter, the CFS was very emphatic on the positive anomalies vanishing by April - they did not go as far as to show any great negative anomaly but the placement pointed to a flow from the NW to SE. This is what we are seeing in the modelling and prospects do not look like changing before mid May. The bright side - the drought restrictions of last year are long gone and in a much better position if a long hot summer awaits.

Indeed. One of the singularities noted on the UK.Sci. weather FAQs pages. 29th April - 16th May NORTHERLY WEATHER - SOME ANTICYCLONIC INTERVALS Northerly type very common, but often anticyclonic in west. Easterly type common; and Westerly type less common than at any time of the year. http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/179