Nouska

Jeff Master's blog - an extensive look at interaction of Madeline and Lester and risks to Hawaii.. In a dual scenario unprecedented in hurricane recordkeeping, two major hurricanes are heading toward Hawaii, and both could affect the island with high surf, torrential rain, and potential high winds over the next week. Hurricane Madeline is the closer of the two, located about 630 miles east of Hilo, HI, as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Now moving west-northwest at 10 mph, Madeline has been rapidly intensifying, growing from tropical storm to Category 3 strength in just 24 hours. As of 5 pm EDT, Madeline’s top sustained winds were at 115 mph. CPHC is projecting Madeline to move on a leftward-arcing path that would take it just south of the Big Island as a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday night (see Figure 1 below). A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all of the Big Island (Hawaii County). Update (11:30 pm EDT Monday]: Madeline's top sustained winds had increased to 125 mph as of the 11 pm EDT CPHC advisory. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3406

Very sad! It was a fierce day of storms in Norway. The radar/sat image at 3.30pm Friday shows an angry signature. Loving the picture of 'Burlington Bertie - when opened in a new tab and enlarged, the detail of the feet is just superb.

Major hurricane Lester (category 3) looking very nice on hi-res satellite. At this moment in time no threat to land although there might be impacts for Hawaii by the weekend. A more immediate threat, Madeline now also a major - two now lining up on Hawaii.

Tropical tidbits covering mission obs. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

While it's quiet and not everybody visits the tropical section - a nice close-up of the hurricane (Gaston) we are mentioning in model discussion. Cannot credit the image as it is on Imgur but borrowed from S2K tropical forum.

Now there's an interesting one - this bird has the bright yellow beak and plumage of an adult male whereas the other pictures showed a female or juvenile beak. Was your bald bird a juvenile getting adult feathers or is this a different bird altogether? Your previous images below for comparison.

The scheduled mission for today was cancelled but it is looking a bit more vigorous at the moment so they may change that plan. Nice close up of new hot towers - too big to embed. http://imgur.com/6Ap9iHv The Global Hawk is currently out at Gaston - 80 Atlantic sampling dropsondes planned.

Today's offering - a field of cows and cattle egrets. On enlarging, just noticed the bull is in with them! The numbers of little egrets are growing steadily and I've even seen the big version but no camera to hand. It looks like a big white heron. Tombeboeuf village in the background. Great capture @knocker Just to add another insect visitor today. Think they go up to the eaves to lay their eggs as you can see where the old papery cases have been.

I don't know the answer to that - some of the other more knowledgeable posters may help. There is still a cold sub-surface in the Atlantic and I see the autumn/winter long rangers are returning the cold anomaly (presumably also from storm mixing). I posted an interesting paper on the jet stream yesterday - among other things, it looks at Arctic ice decline on circulation patterns.

Far from it - a bit slower off the blocks than models predicted - Just become the third Atlantic hurricane of the season. 000 WTNT62 KNHC 250415 TCUAT2 HURRICANE GASTON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1215 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 ...GASTON BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON... Dropsonde data from a NASA/NOAA Global Hawk mission indicate that Gaston has strengthened to a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

Rescued this lady out of the cat's litter tray. I'm devastated to find one back leg missing - after some quick googling - she's now been taken down the road to a bramble hedge.

A new tool in the box nowadays..... I think it is currently flying a mission round Gaston. http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/NASAGlobalHawk/Documents/pageDocuments/NASA_GH_EyesSkyArticleNov.PDF Just to add that the Global Hawk mission found Gaston to already be hurricane strength and the data should be ingested in the next model runs. 000 WTNT62 KNHC 250415 TCUAT2 HURRICANE GASTON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1215 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 ...GASTON BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON... Dropsonde data from a NASA/NOAA Global Hawk mission indicate that Gaston has strengthened to a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

Scientists begin to unravel summer jet stream mystery. http://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/scientists-unravel-mysteries-of-jet-stream-1.638634 Scientists have discovered the cause of the recent run of miserable wet summers as they begin to unravel the mysteries of the Atlantic jet stream. Researchers from the University of Sheffield and The Met Office have identified a number of possible factors that may influence the Atlantic jet stream and therefore help to predict summer climate from one year to the next. The summer weather in the UK and northwest Europe is influenced by the position and strength of the Atlantic jet stream – a ribbon of very strong winds which are caused by the temperature difference between tropical and polar air masses. A northward shift in the Atlantic jet stream tends to direct low-pressure systems northwards and away from the UK, leading to warm and dry weather during summer. But, if the summer jet slips southwards it can lead to the jet shifting the low-pressure systems directly over the UK, causing miserable weather like we experienced in the first half of this summer. The big question is “why does the jet stream shift?” If you want some answers to the question - here's the full paper - are you sitting comfortably - it's a long story. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265017222_Drivers_of_North_Atlantic_Polar_Front_jet_stream_variability

Well! That explains it all. Can somebody put Humpty back together again. I'll let Levi try make sense of it all. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2016/08/24/wednesday-evening-future-of-invest-99l-remains-uncertain-flooding-threat-to-northern-caribbean-islands-and-bahamas/

Gaston is underperforming and the girl who is maybe going to be named Hermine is also dithering about. Sydney can safely go back to tending his nuts. Have to admit, I got quite excited too with the GFS 06Z idea of bringing the remnants in down here. A nice ex-tropical downour would be just the ticket for very parched ground.

There's unusually good agreement from the ECM and UKMO at day 7 - @Jack Wales you still in Florida then? GFS still footling with a weak TS (at best) traversing Florida. The ECM quite aggressive with a new pouch, exiting in seven days - this will likely be what the low- res GFS shows, as having nasty potential down the line.

The AROME forecasting some 34C hot spots in the SE tomorrow afternoon. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php The ARPEGE take on Saturday afternoon - 2metre temps and nebulosity for same time frame (5pm local). Edit for @Djdazzle - think you are seeing the 44C on the temperature scale - it is in blue. There's a reason the north of France is on heatwave alert.

A grey wagtail. Nuthatch has a wee short tail. Edit for @knocker - you finally managed to track it down (pics below) and a fine job on the editing.

The mimic total precipitable water animation is revealing. This morning's models not quite as intense but still a beast in the making.

A super wide view of tropical activity - it's been a long time since we have seen such a potentially busy picture in the Atlantic. Just caught your post there @Singularity I don't need to point out which is which - you've explained nicely. Another big blob of convection about to depart Africa - it's all go.

ECM 934mb at 192.... ..... and guess where that steering is going. Ex hurricane Katia - a very similar path to what 90L will take as per current modelling.

@No Balls Like Snow Balls is this what you're trying to show? You need to embed whole tweet. Edit maybe others can see just blank screen for me. An edit for @Summer Sun hurricane (cat 4 probably) 967mb at that point - bottoms out at 951mb. Tropical Tidbits better if you want to see close up for these features. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

90L has a big, broad circulation seen on mimic Pwat - enough moisture envelope to fight off any dry air? Should be classed TD shortly and maybe Gaston by tomorrow. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

@karyo Here's the winter prediction statement the Met office issued for last winter. Some of the graphics from GloSea5 included. But.....remember.... it was issued with runs from NOVEMBER. http://medcof.aemet.es/images/doc_events/medcof5/docMedcof5/presentaciones/MedCOF5_Brookshaw.pdf Far too early to be thinking of that - we've got a season of powerful cyclones, query ENSO and query QBO that could all shake the tree a bit. If it's OK to reproduce a graphic, here's strat. ensembles from last year - you can see why so bullish for late winter SSW.

We're going a bit off topic here but I expect someone will open a new thread by October. Anyway, this from a post I made on TWO... The black verical arrows reflect the two largest known eruptions of the last 3000 years. Did they cause the following temperature dip or was it a combination of factors. Paper here with graph legend. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/288887092_Norwegian_fjord_sediments_reveal_NAO_related_winter_temperature_and_precipitation_changes_of_the_past_2800_years