Nouska

One of the reasons I posted the water vapour link a few pages back. The dry slot of frigid arctic air is a classic precursor and you can see why in latest image. The cloud head development is just disappearng into the dry air. Storm number two in embryo stage west of La Coruna.

Meteociel have updates on pressure and isobars - left bar above the model options. http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/pression.php Current status. Legend of colors of the text: Red: pressure has dropped since the last survey Yellow: pressure has remained stable since last reading Green: the pressure has risen since the last reading AROME has bullseye lowest reading, circa 963mb as per image below - local UK time 2am.

Looks spectacular on water vapour imagery - just starting the turn now. http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/seviri/2016/11/19/seviri_eurnat_wv6-2.html#

Me too. I went through every year on the ESRL yesterday for a look at how ridiculously anomalous this situation is (posted in model thread) - nothing remotely similar. None of the standard long range models saw this but I noticed someone posted about the NOAA SST anomaly model correctly predicting the current pattern. Does this perhaps reflect the answer lies in the ocean heat content and the effects on circulation. I should also add that the new, ice anomaly incorporated, CESM model did well with October but the jump in ice at the end of the season, then rapidly reducing, seems to have put it awry for November.

Very impressive 12 hour rainfall total from AROME 06Z. Also shows the danger of very strong wind gusts penetrating well inland. Great water vapour imagery.

Yes, from an E. European weather agency so focus on their region. You'll be struggling to find an analogue for this year - so many anomalous factors. I've been through old charts and nothing similar to current N. America/Arctic/Siberian anomalies. Just to expand on this - below is the 925mb temp anomaly for the first fifteen days of November - all the negative anomalies are outwith the arctic circle and mostly in the eastern arc of the NH - nothing* of this pronounced nature in the modern ESRL record going back to 1948. * Only one other year with a similar, but weaker, profile.

This will give a flavour of the ECM means at 360. T850 = Cold. Z500 = cold Week 4 of the EC 32 = cold

There is an option on Meteociel for 'cartes europe 2' - personally prefer the NH wide view but available for those that like the WZ view.

On more immediate matters, the energy for the weekend storm is departing the Canadian arctic - blob NNE of Newfoundland. And for the future; coldest extended ECM means seen yet. But not able to work out the pattern from a very blended Z500 mean.

Indeed! and as they give details on anomalies, a look at those for today. Substantial high level blocking to the north, north west and north east. Precisely as detailed in updates from professional sources. It is the middle of November and already two cold shots with snow for some. CET for first ten days coldest since 1980 (from CET thread). That's good going in my opinion - both from the models .... and the weather.

They will be using very hi-res short range modelling - closest we'll get to seeing similar is the AROME 1.3km data. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=142&map=30 Zoom facility. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php

Oh... SNAP.... I've just spent ages making a gif and wittering about this on the strat thread and here it is in coherent and technical detail.

I've dragged over a quote from the model thread, made yesterday. On the subject of a more central Canadian 'bulge' and not necessarily fearing a west based NAO. I've made a gif of the JMA extended four week forecast and hope this might illustrate the point I was making. Whether it turns out to be accurate or not, it does show the tail finally sweeping in the direction needed to get cold air closer to home.

ARPEGE using some of Meteociel's new gizmos

This seems a very plausible explanation - something the seasonals might not capture. Yes, the disruption and the almost reversal signature but not the micro detail. The warming coming off the Russian ridge is maybe good for longer term but has actually produced a Yin Yang pattern which keeps Atlantic feed in shorter term. The best route, from historical, is for the 'bulge' to be from central Canadian Arctic and thus 'tail' sweeping on a westward trajectory through Siberia to Europe. On another note - if @fergieweather is about - any possibility you can post a link (as previously) when/if the MedCOF make public the seasonal outlook.

Very similar position and time frame to the snow chart for last ECM run. A lot more runs needed to firm up but just thought I'd post as there was a comment about no snow on the ECM charts. Chart publically available from Wunderground though it is a bit of a convoluted process to get there. https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Only speculative at this range but I suspect if ARPEGE went out a few more frames, it would also be modelling similar to ECM. The two views are very different but that sharpening front edge at T+114 looks similar on both models.

A slightly wider view of the ECM forecast storm at +132 and +138 hours. Edit for @ajpoolshark 138 hour 500-1000 hPa dam chart There are dew point charts but on a more local to Iceland view and only closer time frame.

Here's a very good analysis of QBO phase relationship to cold CET winter months - written by Global Warming, the Weather Outlook's CET competition organiser. It also has a relevance to postings in the forecast thread from @iapennell. Perhaps it is no co-incidence we are seeing a late November 2010 redux in some NWP outlook. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=838758#post838758

This is probably a very good example of the points being raised. No discernible jet over the UK but look at the panel GEFS for same time frame. A jet streak in every one but a cancelling out process results in nothing showing. The very fact we see this - an indication of extreme forecast meridionality with many solutions on offer. Climatology should have a raging jet stream coming off some sector of the US - the fact it doesn't, says all you need to know about difficulties in resolving the outcome.

The last major blocking episode, FIM was similar to the ECM and quite close to what transpired. This is the fifteen day blocking forecast from the 00Z run (increased signal from previous run). You can never be sure of the latitude of the block but it seems, on the surface, to suggest a link between Atlantic and Scandinavian sectors. An edit for the 336 hour NH chart from the run. 500 height 925 mb temps

Now there's a chart right out of my '76 analogue. ..... and a very blank canvas for week 48 from latest EC 32.

For the likes of us with no access to the suites you have, the NOAA TC genesis site can help. There's a looping facility to check and compare the models on a day to day basis. Runs only as far as +168 but there's big divergence with what they forecast for this. The UKMO along with CMC show a strongish system by day seven. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

This is where today's JMA sees it. Still looking at 1976, putting some more flesh on the bones and taking MJO forecast into account. The MJO phase December 1976 - the same as currently forecast - some cracking examples of Atlantic amplification in the archives to demonstrate the point GP was making. Also some indication of where the JMA 3-4 weekly might not be far off the money if all goes as currently proposed. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=12&hour=0&year=1976&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

I do not know if any of you follow Anthony Masiello on twitter but he has been looking at solar geomagnetic activity and linking with some climate indices. A suggestion there that recent uptick may be altering expectations in the NAO field. I did say earlier that I was wary about this but the research is new and not established so may be just co-incidental. Have a read through recent offerings and you'll also see references to what @Tamara was mentioning in her post. https://twitter.com/antmasiello An edit to say that this is no pointer for the future but may be a reason for some of the current ramping in the vortex. All other scientific theory indications are good for this winter and we may just need to wait a bit for early signals to re-emerge.