Nouska

The 30mb measure of the equatorial stratosphere might be stuck in a westerly phase but don't ignore the two standard deviation to climatology that is going on in the zonal mean wind at the 10mb level in the arctic . Easterly phase also dominates below 50mb level. A highly disrupted profile can not be relied on for forecasting anything this coming winter.

This was the UKMO 168 hour chart from today's 00Z run. They don't always update if there are no tropical systems but no harm in checking after about 8pm to see if the 12Z run has been added. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Following on from posts in the snow and ice thread, I was doing a bit of looking back. Striking similarities in the stratosphere forecast to what transpired in November 1976 - the top year, in the record we have, for Eurasian snow cover. The November Canadian warming evident there. The archived month in continuous, mouse-over format - some shades of what we are seeing in the current modelling. It led on to a cold December and January in that winter - any pointers there for this winter - probably not, but something to watch. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=11&hour=0&year=1976&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

In their October update for November, I didn't see a solitary model that captured this cold anomaly. Fair enough, the projection is only to mid month but the positive temp anomalies would need to be huge to get an end of month figure even close to the swathe of warmth the long rangers predicted.

That winter saw a Canadian warming in November - probably what led to the cold December and January. As you say, sometimes the bona fide SSW can actually shake up the stratosphere to a profile less favourable for the UK location. Interesting to note that the 10mb stratosphere profile for November 1976 is very similar to what is predicted in the modelling for the coming period. Is it the high October snow response or is the snow in October responding to circulation anomalies in the atmosphere.

Yes, it is a pattern also shown on the JMA monthly update today. In the nearer term, small adjustments with the ridge, trough scenario will cause difficulty in modelling precisely for our small patch.

I think that is more your or John's field when it comes to the geostrophic 'what entrance, what exit and the processes in between' physics. The diagram I posted was to show it is modelled to have tropical characteristics even though not immediately visible in the surface isobars. Maybe the thetaE will show better what I mean.

The cyclone phase diagrams are a useful way of tracking how this type of feature is modelled. Warm core throughout - asymetric to symetric. Although pretty weak in itself, it will still be a significant shot of warm air into the cold trough for strong cyclogenesis. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Indeed! We all know the dangers of looking at blended solutions. On the matter of JMA versus ECM - here's September stats for Europe region (last available). You can play around with the parameters here. http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

ECM ensemble mean at 360 hours is not showing anything way below average 850 temp wise but it does indicate the direction of travel will not be the S. westerly, mild variety of the last couple of Novembers.

Eurasian snow cover advance in graphic format. Image courtesy of Ant Masiello twitter feed. https://twitter.com/antmasiello Difficult for old eyes to sort out the dates but suffice to say it is a long time since it went above the the 20m square kilometres.

Just an update on this new model now that October is on the record. Actual surface temperature anomaly October 2016. The images from the MME suite link here :- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2016090800/current/tmp2m_Lead1.html Now take a closer look at the 'new kid' on the block - the only one that comes anywhere near the massive negative anomalies over Asia. It was so different to the others, I wonder if it is the fact that it incorporates the Arctic ice anomalies into the runs.

That pattern is very similar to what we saw at the end of January/beginning of February. Allowing for the fact we are now going into polar night rather than fully in it - could we expect to see similar on the ground patterns to what we saw in late Feruary and March - ie. finger of troughing through the UK with southerly disruption and a raw, damp continental feed.

I'm not terribly au fait with day to day weather and forecasting but is the ECM 168 hour chart not an example of diffluent blocking? I said diffluent in my post and only going by this diagram. Think it can be called Rex blocking as well - but as I said, more a background science person so maybe writing waffle.

Yes, plenty of ensemble support for an easterly but swift divergence after day ten which, is only to be expected.

There has been plenty of snow advance over the last couple of Octobers but this one is different in that the really big positive anomalies are down below the sixty degrees north latitude. This was always mooted as being most important - we'll see soon enough if it lives up to the theory. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2016&ui_month=10&ui_set=2

The nacreous clouds were over the UK due to the unusual positioning of the stratospheric vortex - you need colder than -80C overhead for formation. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/clouds/nacreous To what is being modelled in the here and now. No SSW but the potential for a Canadian style displacement where there is a possibility of early reversal. The cold is not present at the beginning of winter but think of what followed - a high pressure, easterly spring in the north of the UK and a cold and wet one further south - including here. Transpose the scenario to the start of winter and we might be in business to see something very different, to recent winters, down the line.

Maybe get in trouble for posting in the model thread but Meteo France have just updated their three month outlook and that pattern seems indicated for the forecast period. The translated text to go along with it. The proposed circulations do not allow clear case except for the Mediterranean areas, which are expected to milder conditions than normal, the British Isles, where temperatures should be close to normal, and Central Europe (the Austria to Ukraine and south of the Baltic States) with conditions rather colder than normal.

Remember @bluearmy was talking about later stages of the ECM and FIM being similar. I posted the blocking forecast charts a few pages back.

Is this what you are looking for?

Hi Mike, Saw some reports from other UK posters of this happening. Firefox on desktop is fine for me but can no longer control any pages that contain embedded tweets on my android Samsung phone.

If you have time have a look back through the archived charts (set for tenth November) - very rare pattern to have so little cold pooling in the western hemisphere. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=10&month=11&hour=12&map=5&mode=1&type=ncep&region= You'll see a few, have a look at the November CET figures for some of the years.

The FIM has done a good job, so far, in picking out the blocking this autumn. Quite a difference in the fifteen day forecast between it and the GFS. GFS FIM Blocking centres on the FIM move to just east of us and round the dateline in week two. How that translates to surface features - a story still to unfold. http://fim.noaa.gov/blocking/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=gfs_blocking_jet&domain=full&run_time=29+Oct+2016+-+12Z

I suspect what we are currently seeing is a response to extremely low ice in the Kara/Barents and late season high energy tropical systems piling WAA into the polar regions. I'm not sure about the QBO as it is different things at different levels. Unique, for the record we have, in other words. The met office do not seem to consider the QBO as a significant indicator for second winter NAO forecast according to this recent study. http://sci-hub.bz/10.1038/ngeo2824 Where it fits in with present winter forecast, I might find out if Aemet publish the winter forecast again this year. I would be a bit more wary of recent uptick in solar geomagnetic activity - belies the spot numbers by quite a bit. At the end of the day, we are theorising for fun and education and we may be on the right lines or completely out to lunch. Edit regarding QBO phases and solar cycle - IMO, sufficient variety of combinatons in the record to allow for alternative scenarios.

And here is @Tamara's solar spoiler. ..but we got the benefit of the low activity later in the following Spring. Follow here. http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/kp-index/