[Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.]

Monday looks and absolute horror show on the 12z GFS. I can deal with a bit of rain but under these temperatures, in August?!

 

 

That chart above shows a ridiculous contrast in temperatures over northern France as well, with some heavy rain to blame.

 

 

As Thermohaline Conveyor alluded to earlier, there is the prospect of a few thundery showers developing behind the front, chiefly in the south and west. CAPE + LI charts show a marked upgrade in potential compared to yesterdays 12z, which limited potential to Ireland only. However I can't shake the 'straw clutching' vibe off with this. It's all we got!

 

 

Deep into FI, the early September burst of warmth is still there, but it has been pushed back a day or so with a rather dreadful weekend to round off August.

[Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>]

GFS is forecasting a rise in temperature and dewpoint temperature from Tuesday next week. Before that the temperature rises in France. Hopefully it will do away with this early autumnal feel :-)

Before that though we have this...

 

No doubt coinciding with the rain sweeping across the country during the day. It'll feel pretty rotten out there!

 

What interests me is the potential for a few thundery showers developing after the main rain band clears north east. The energy is there and is more widespread than yesterdays 12z.

 

 

Of course it's a little far out and CAPE/LI charts aren't the only source of information for predicting this kind of thing, however we might as well seen as precip models this far out are largely academic. Looking at the above charts you could imagine the M4 corridor could do well, and parts of the southwest too, running into Wales and the West Midlands.

 

I think we're looking at pulse type storms should conditions stay favourable. After a warmer Tuesday temperatures take a nosedive again for the remainder of the week, limiting convective potential.

[Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.]

I would have to agree with Polar Maritime's assessment of the output. However, seen as posts will mainly be about the short-term unsettled conditions, it is nice to see GFS providing some early autumn heat, just as the kids go back.

 

No surprise to see a strong jet to the north of the UK allowing the high pressure to build...

 

Shame it's at a meaningless timescale for now. If it repeats and begins to feature more solidly on the ensembles perhaps it'll be an Indian summer, but in the meantime it is back to reality...

 

Showers and longer spells of rain to come after a reasonable weekend for many, if a little cool. Once that low pressure gets out of the way another one is right behind to rain off the rest of the next working week...

 

So despite the hope on the horizon (thanks GFS!) there is still a lot of unsettled weather to come. Enjoy one last BBQ this weekend (although don't go as far as wearing shorts). Lets hope September brings a change in fortunes 

[Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.]

Thanks for the welcome 

 

Some excellent summaries of current output above; it really helps further the understanding of our weather for learning amateurs like myself. Given the cold shot next week, a return to average temperatures and the occasional drier/sunnier interlude thereafter might feel quite nice!

 

Captain Shortwave highlights an important difference show on the ECM & GEM tonight. A S or SW flow would lead to predominantly fine conditions for the south and east (in case anyone is off on a late holiday!) 

[Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.]

There's always hope for a little summer heat still to be had and if EN/GEFS no 5 comes around i certainly won't be moaning

 

 

Edit.....I must admit though things are starting to look a little desperate.

 

I agree it is looking rather desperate. At this time it's more apt to look for transient ridges that could lead to a more persistent building of high pressure. The more likely outcome can be deduced by looking at the jet stream forecast...

 

... I think the outcome will be that any high pressure ridging from the south over the coming week or so will stay transient and hopefully a day or so of pleasant conditions can coincide with a weekend day. Perhaps it's the best we can hope for at the moment. The jet is forecast to stay over the UK or slightly to the south whilst the Atlantic continues to feed us with unsettled weather.

 

Those of a convective persuasion might find something of interest to grasp once the northerly gets out of the way *even the showers forecast next week look rather tame!*