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mhielte

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Posts posted by mhielte

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Polar Maritime
    To move discussion on.

    7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

     

    h850t850eu.png

    When it comes down to it, the upstream amplification is what really counts for the longer-term, and it will take a further substantial shift for the Azores low to cause enough trouble to prevent that from doing the job. UKMO might well be at that point which is alarming, though as implied earlier it has enough of a hang-down of lower heights to place an undercut of the high at just +168 hours on the table. Not something I'd bet on, but you never know - we should see what the run gets up to later this evening via that alternative view people have started making use of.

     

    Regarding the Azores low strength in the mid-range, something I noticed with the 12z GFS was that there was much more wave development along the frontal boundary moving south 1st-2nd Jan. This tricky feature could be important for determining how much development potential then exists for the Azores low to work with. Further swings may be possible in the 24-72 hour range, which is unusually close in time,

    Really value analysis like this. Great post :)

    That said maybe we know too much sometimes. I'm sure I was far less stressed than this viewing the 5-day forecast on Ceefax back in the day. Page 406 I think it was :D

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    The ENS do not support the Op and look much better at day 8. No spoiler low

    IMG_3897.PNG

    Day 10 and there are some lovely northerners, mean back down do -5c again, not sure why so negative in here.

    I can only imagine it is due to repeated failures in the past! We feel less disappointed if we 'expect' the worst to happen :)

    GEFS looks great with the op out on its own. Perhaps it is on to something, perhaps not. Good to see repeated signals for more incursions from the north...again ;)It'll be very interesting to see where the ECM goes this evening...

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    As I mentioned last week, I was fairly certain that the initial Northerly would be a brief affair and that appears will be the case. Will the second shot be anymore likely?

    I say no, as the AAM, MJO and PV strength do not support it. I would again therefore caution against believing any model output showing a HLB favourable for snow to our islands.

    Interesting guess/prediction. I'll save this for future reference :)

    Good to see the northerly plunge still on for the UK despite you saying otherwise on the 23rd. I'll take my chances and pin my hopes on January being a colder than average month with some snowfall :D

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mhielte
    a plea to the Gods

    2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    There were lots of GEFS members showing uppers very cold for days a few runs ago, they are fast disappearing and with the Met Office outlook not suggesting much PPN after some very insignificant back edge snow on the weekend, it looks like another garden path job again, mind you the background signals never really suggested HLB in the first place. Well at least we can look forward to some frosty clear days and interesting weather  .:closedeyes:zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

    I'm shocked that you can call the future with any confidence given the variance in the model output especially after t120. We have a cold snap to look forward to to begin the new year and after that, who knows? All we can do is comment on the potential, whichever way it may lean.

    As it happens, the potential is for the cold to stay for a while longer with the prospect of reloads from the north or even north-east if you believe some models this evening. What isn't wise is to dismiss the prospects entirely based on unreliable long-term forecasts and the odd dodgy run. The GFS 12z ensembles show a noticeable upgrade compared to the 6z. Am I calling a snowy month based on that alone? Of course not!

    There are plenty of people who read this thread as an education (myself included) and posts like the one quoted are extremely misleading. Is it that hard to view the models with a modicum of impartiality? 

    edit: I recognise posts in a similar vein to mine have been removed. I understand and respect if mine goes the same route but I feel it is an important message to get across :)

     

    • Like 8

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Matthew Wilson said:

    Yes where's the ECM wandering towards January:D:

    IMG_0860.PNG

    Exactly where the MetO wants it to wander to?...

    "There is also the potential, although with very little confidence attached to it, that pressure may also build to the west of the UK across the Atlantic, and this would bring a high chance of seeing a colder interlude develop." from their extended outlook :)

     

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Gael_Force said:

    I'm not criticising Matt or saying he is looking for snow but a lot of the folk on here are. I personally agree that the likelihood is for repeated ridges through the UK but you need something to close them off or it's mild or the much maligned faux cold.

    Yes agreed. FWIW I know you weren't criticising Matt :) But worth you pointing out others are looking for snowier signals in the anomalies that aren't present at the moment :santa-emoji:

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

    You need to be careful with those anomalies; that's not much different to what we have just had with the strongest positive between Scotland and Iceland. It just reflects there is normally a big low there.

    ECM101-0_idl8.GIF

    If people are looking for a cold snowy easterly there would need to be blues through Iberia: pink just shows it is the usual high pressure down there.

    True, but in fairness Matt isn't looking for easterlies, more a discontinuation to the mobile westerly pattern later this month :)

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    I think the forum needs some positive news from the EC46 and hopefully a day of better ECM and GFS ENS, lets hope that's the case. Yesterday was pretty depressing reading !! Lets not chase snow in the next 10 days, it's not happening and we are to get slightly milder for now. 

    The milder spell has been a consistent signal for a while now and reflects the recent MetO further outlooks. I agree with @KTtom that it's what happens after this that will determine how December pans out. There are plenty of reasons to be encouraged though, many of which have already been outlined such as the lack of zonality and a still weak jet. I am happy to put my trust in the longer-term outlooks which broadly suggest a return to a blocked/colder pattern as we head towards mid-December + + +

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

    personally, I'll just continue monitoring the model outputs over the next 2-3 days before passing any personal judgement on what may or may not happen next week....To write off weather a week before it's happened is foolhardy IMHO. The model output can and possibly will change between now and then

    Absolutely.

    I'm surprised at some of the more prolific posters in this thread seemingly living and dying with each run. Look to the ensembles for consistency and agreement, rather than accepting every operational chart as gospel. :)

    • Like 9
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