mhielte
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Posts posted by mhielte
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41 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:
Pretty good model agreement on a pattern change by next weekend for the UK to a milder SW'ly orientated flow and staying dry but cold before that, but yes the freezing, snowless spell looks like coming to an end in around 8 days time
A pattern change suggests something then locked in for a while. Even if our cold breaks down, there seems little evidence to suggest any return to average (as the model agreement isn't actually for mild, more just 'average') would be anything more than a blip. Post day seven, it continues to be rather uncertain.
Also, any reason why you're calling the next 8 days as snowless?
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4 minutes ago, MJB said:Not a great morning eh?
Unless some of the white stuff falls , it will be a disappointment .......................for many I guess , and the spell will get a low rating
A lot of assumption there in one post. Let's not get hasty and instead evaluate after the event, rather than before. After all, we're talking science here and rarely do you evaluate your results before the experiment even takes place!
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2 minutes ago, Noob said:
Im not sure what too think now, charts say one thing, met updates seems too say the opposite other than cold is nailed on. They seem to be pro's at sitting on the fence and they are meant to be the experts or am i assuming too much ?
Assuming too much
Unless the signal is ridiculously strong at that range, and let's face it, it never is, then there will always be a good deal of fence sitting in the extended text forecasts.
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56 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Not trying to ramp or anything, but judging by the outputs we're currently seeing a national emergency will have to be put into affect for the upcoming cold spell. 'Central Government will declare a Level 4 alert in the event of severe or prolonged cold weather affecting sectors other than health.' This is most definitely going to be quite a prolonged and severe spell of cold weather, with no end in sight on the models currently.
It's important to note this, as it isn't hyperbole! With the cold deepening and locked in for at least 7 days, huge pressure will be put on our energy grid. It doesn't look especially windy either.
Don't get me wrong, I'm after the jackpot here in terms of snow (fingers crossed for next week), but there is an increased danger with any strong cold spell this year in particular.
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5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
The way ECM blows up the low to our south west tmhas two precedence.
1 We are seeing in effect what hsppens all the time in Western Atlantic in that cold air spilling off a land mass into the ocean creates a low pressure, just this time its off euro continent instead of American
2nd similar thing happened to end 2018 beast.
So I'm putting more confidence in day 9 and 10 than want too
It should definitely not be discounted, but the intensity and suddenness of the low as well as the lack of support for it (currently) means it remains a very unlikely verification, IMO.
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A couple of thunderstorms rumbling through today. Excellent cloudscapes, as well. Just now some big rain and regular thunder centred just east.
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Convective Weather
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UKForecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
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Convective Weather
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UKForecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
Some juicy text to pore over today
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Yes, Sheffield, Wakefield and Bradford all show temperatures either the same as places in the red warning, or actually higher when compared with the Manchester region. A big mistake from the Met Office.
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:
I've just compared the frontal position on all runs and honestly there isn't much in it.
Icon, CMC, Ukmo are basically the same. GfS is same just stronger. ECM is quicker this morning.
Im not really seeing much of of trend though to be honest, at least in terms of frontal placement., its all slight variations along the same theme and the models have been going to and fro on every different run recently.
I agree. There is not much difference between a very subtle trend and simple run to run variation. I believe this is the latter as there isn't enough, in my opinion, to justify the former. I appreciate it is largely interpretive to the reader though
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GFS is just entertaining the more progressive solutions with the low pressure, hence the increased spread in the ensembles. The ECM looks more solid in this respect.
I am not seeing anything to suggest other than a peak Monday into Tuesday with temperatures into the mid to high thirties.
It looks like we will need a few more days to determine how this low behaves.
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4 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:
Met Office going for a fairly standard very warm week here in the capital. Far from exceptional. As expected.
They will subtly alter each day, but it does look hot with the heatwave threshold being met there even going by the often conservative app forecast.
I would say it is not standard to get a heatwave given the definition. I agree, it is not exceptional heat, but then the charts that have shown exceptional heat don't fall into the app's range yet anyway.
I do believe you know this though, and are fishing.
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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:
Yes the GFS has actually gone hotter for Tuesday for the Manchester area. What amazes me is how poor the apps/website forecasts are. On the BBC website they've actually dropped the max to 24C for Tuesday- I see no reason why to be honest. Wednesday has been dropped to 19C which seems too severe to me.
The apps and websites always seem so slow to catch up and often forecast the temperatures way too low a few days out- before gradually increasing the temperatures as you get closer to the day in question.
I find the app forecasts, particularly on the Met Office site, very slow to catch up to the modelling. We've known this weekend/start of next week was going to be hot for some time now but it only updated to 26-28C a day or two ago on the site for Sheffield.
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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:
Dreadful runs this morning for the North West. Barely squeezing one day of warm weather before the cool Atlantic returns.
Talk of record breaking temperatures are pure fantasy.
Those two statements do not link at all. Since when does a cooler spell for the NW marry up to the potential for record temperatures further south and east?
Some massive IMBY overreactions this morning.
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4 hours ago, bluearmy said:
The ops which drive the excessive plume are in conjunction with the upper low west of Iberia drifting north
at the moment the favoured solution on this side of the pendulum is for the Atlantic to phase with this Azores low drifting north which pushes everything a little east and quickens the plume event to be a 24 hour at most.
at eight/nine days out , getting the timing of the Atlantic trough pulse and escaping cut off upper low is likely unreliable.
certainly one to watch because if the Azores low doesn’t phase and just drifts nne then the plume across nw Europe north will be at least 48 hours extremely notable and likely dangerous.
This is an excellent post. I know strictly speaking we don't want extreme heat for all the disruption it can cause to health and infrastructure, but purely from a meteorological standpoint, it's what is interesting me with the models at the moment, the prospect of such an historic event occurring.
It will take a while longer yet before the aforementioned relationship (or lack of) between the Atlantic trough and the upper low is determined reliably.
It is no surprise to see the GFS phase progressively and flatten the pattern compared to the rest of the suite, so I wonder whether it'll moderate down the line and bring back some more extreme solutions even in operationals.
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
Latest ENS Mean at 150 tilts the jet down towards Spain, compared to the last run. This should surely mean sliders are showing more on the ENS???
That looks a lot better
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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Thats the point though we dont want it to phase lol!!!!!more chance of things going wrong significantly!you can have the trough in the atlantic slightly further south and west by a matter of a mile but aint gona make one heck of a difference with the shortwave being further west as well!!
True, I was more thinking that we do not know if it will on this run as it only goes to 120 hours. It is going to be a fun weekend
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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Look at the stuff east of iceland it spilling over even quicker towards the low in the atlantic!!we gona be in no mans land for a period of time!!
If it phases, so be it. We have a slight southwards correction and a more negatively tilted Atlantic trough. It is better than the 00z but we need further corrections.
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Just now, Paul_1978 said:
The charts are dated 25th and 26th December. Has anyone been expecting anything of note before then? I’ve not seen anyone expecting any particularly cold or snowy on or before 24th Dec.
Quite! If we think back to last week we had the form horse being a settled and cold Christmas with perhaps the chance of deeper cold towards New Year.
Now we have the prospect of cold and snow at Christmas/Boxing Day (better chance further north) and the chance of deeper cold from the NE/E beyond then. Nothing has been delayed.
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4 minutes ago, jules216 said:
I will ask you on 27th how did it go.
I have said all along this will turn in to WB -NAO and I was laughed at, now all is going there and clearly cold from Scandi is deflected towards Iceland. How in south of UK will you get anything then cold rain or temporal slush with those temps?
The south may well get only cold rain from this, but there is more to the UK than the south of England (don't tell the media that though!) To be in this position going into the Christmas is fantastic... do not lose sight of that as it may be a few years before we can entertain such prospects again.
It has not turned into anything yet and you are still linking to charts a week or more away and calling it like it is going to verify like that. Nothing is set in stone and it may even be closer to t0 when we actually know what's going to happen and where, if anywhere, it might snow Chill out!
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25 minutes ago, jules216 said:
Is this enough WB -NAO for you? I said it All along, now what, hope everybody is Happy with misserable cold rain and 4C.
For you maybe! Would you like some pepper with all that salt Could have put money on who would be moaning this morning.
We are well in the game here, as Nick has pointed out. A lot of detail still to be resolved
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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Going to be a few I told you so post in the next few hours based purely of the GFS run.
Again, I'm staggered how much faith some have in the fantasy island of what is only a decent weather model. It may be right, but I think there's a greater chance it is being far too aggressive, as we so often see.
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6 minutes ago, LRD said:
It's ebbing away because:
1) Yesterday, the trend to bring in the Atlantic started. On a southerly track at first but has trended north since
2) The ECM op is the pick of the runs and it's such a fragile set up to get us there. The whole pattern could change very easily on that run. And it's at the cold end of the 850s suite with milder solutions obviously in there
3) If the GFS op was a warm outlier compared to its ensembles, I'd be far more convinced. The fact that its ensembles have moved with the op is significant. As much as people dismiss the GFS on here it is a decent model and I can't see it and its ensembles being that wrong
As I say, I'm not writing this off yet. Just feel it's slipping away and needs a good 12z suite and EC46 to bring things the other way. I write this hoping I'm wrong by the way. I'm not looking to wind up or bring people down. Just saying it as I see it and how I feel this is going to go. Please feel free, if things flip back (and cold verifies), to remind me of this post. I'll be very happy to eat humble pie!
Good post LRD By all means we should be keeping our feet on the ground. Where I disagree is on the line that it is ebbing away. I do not see it that way, merely just another twist on the coaster where a different (less good) scenario is entertained by a model. I also do not place much credence with the GFS, especially in FI regardless of ensemble support. It goes off on one so often that it has lost much of its longer term credibility with me. I say that with an equal scepticism had it turned up a significant colder cluster in FI this morning.
Honestly, we have a few more days of our hearts skipping beats while we wait for the next run, until we at least get cross-model support on an outcome. The coldies will leap on the best run from the suite (ECM currently) while the more cautious and measured folk will highlight the worst run to keep expectations in check (GFS currently). A messy but potentially fruitful middle ground might be the form horse but equally it might just be noise and hiding an extreme.
More runs needed
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5 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:
I'm not sure it'd be cold enough on the day itself for a large portion of the country -
But forward 24 hours and we've got it right there -
Worth noting the prospect of embedded cold though from the high beforehand Could easily surprise! It is academic at that range anyway as we'll see a lot of playing about with how far west our deep cold gets in the runs ahead. As I said over on TWO, all we have done is switch rollercoasters!
I am calling an underwhelming 12z suite but a mouthwatering pub run. Seems the sort of set up to twist our niblets like that.
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Just be aware that AROME was the model going for a more substantial fall across northern and central inland areas of England overnight last night, but the UKV was far closer to reality with the odd flurry. Not saying the AROME will definitely be wrong, as it is a very good hi-res model, more than it might currently be overestimating precipitation amounts from the current setup.