marksiwnc

Something similar to what I posted earlier regarding this new typhoon and the impact s it has on the next few weeks of model watching. Is this the case?? I am learning btw lol

But what I mean is if they can't decide which way it will go some say directly towards Philippines and some say sliding north. Then surely such a massive storm will affect weather around the globe as a big problem solving there can mean a lot of discrepancies here?? I've always thought of this. Nuri was similar as it affected weather patterns globally. Am I wrong??

I think super typhoon hagupit seems to be making the models struggle as per usual when a 'storm' so big and intense is involved. All depends how this interacts with the wave length world wide.???

I thought the Models.were playing with the idea of heights in ne Canada extending into Greenland and the nw Atlantic???

Yes the models have been very volatile the last month or so. It's probably due to the usual Atlantic being held at bay. Once the Atlantic comes to play a bit then I think we will know a bit more detail for further ahead. But I think any Atlantic driven weather will be short lived as once a pattern starts it's hard to shift. Do you reckon there is a chance of the pv moving over Scandinavia ian?? That's my guess at the next move

What's the next step then boys?? Lol

I agree let's hope this winter does begin unlike last year. Great effort by everyone thanks

Although not quite model related and don't know If anyone has posted earlier but a post by R.J.S in the seasonal thread and is never far off the mark and seems to think that a cold month with easterly winds are expected this month. Models will need to change drastically for this to be the case but something is a foot if he thinks this. (I hope)although he does say maybe..... Going to issue an update of previous forecast, same general theme but seeing a colder balance between mild and very cold spells. DEC -- After a few mild days some cold anticyclonic conditions will develop, and with retrogression indicated, this may turn into an exceptionally cold mid-month period with below freezing temperatures in daytime and heavy snowfalls in eastern England and many parts of Scotland as well as exposed coasts of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This bitter blast may be followed by slightly milder temperatures around Christmas and New Years but there is some chance of a white Christmas as recovery might be rather slight at first. Now revising December CET down to 2.0 C. JAN -- Very stormy to start as the Atlantic tries to regain a hold against an entrenched blocking pattern over Europe. Possible severe storms around 4th to 6th at the high energy peak of full moon and northern max. These may take the form of mixed rain and snow in many areas although where winds are strongest in south, a brief thaw and heavy rainfall event associated with temps briefly near 10-12 C. Scotland may not see much of this milder air and blizzards may develop. Exceptional cold is then likely mid-month, followed by much milder weather towards the end of January. The CET may be quite low but will go with 1.7 C. FEB -- Mild for a few days near the start of the month then blocking will return and it could produce severe cold at times. Some chance of a subzero CET month. Will say 0.1 for the verification. MAR -- It will remain cold for most of the month then break to quite a warm end of the month but not in time to make much of a dent in a subnormal CET value around 4.5 C. The basic difference (if any) between this and earlier forecast is that I have reduced the overall average temperatures although retaining a similar high-variability oscillation in pretty much the same time sequence. November showed only faint indications of this high-variability trend in the UK, more so in Ireland which has seen colder days recently than most of Britain, however, the hemispheric pattern is clearly winding up for a very active winter.

Check.Sundays update: UK Outlook for Monday 8 Dec 2014 to Monday 22 Dec 2014: There is no strong signal in weather pattern during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground. Issued at: 1600 on Sun 23 Nov 2014 And now today's : UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014: There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground. Isn't it the same today as Sundays???? Yes? No?

They did also say colder and drier for last winter. How wrong they were. They haven't got a clue. I believe some experienced people on Netweather a lot more than the idiots at met office

No update today.so I will cut and paste UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Nov 2014 to Tuesday 9 Dec 2014: Rain across northwestern parts on Sunday gradually moving southeastwards through Monday, weakening as it does so, with clearer and colder conditions following. Generally cloudy conditions ahead of this rain with a few spots of rain or drizzle, and locally murky conditions. Thereafter mainly dry and settled weather is most likely, with some sunny spells, but also an increasing risk of fog and frost patches as winds ease through the week. However, northwestern parts are likely to be unsettled and windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be around normal, or rather cold, especially where fog lingers. The week after next, the more unsettled conditions in the northwest, are increasingly likely to spread to other parts of the UK and temperatures perhaps becoming less cold. UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014: There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground. No change. Surely being paid enough money as a salary they should at least update it properly. Amateurs,

All they seem to di is state the obvious. Not much detail from professional meteorologist s really is there.

Just a quick question to experts on the stratosphere. What is Cohen saying regarding major warming? I've heard of ssw but never of msw. What implications would that result in for the northern hemisphere? And is he normally correct with his judgements?

The menai straights streamer it stretches s/sw to n/ne and can bring shower activity in any northerly and southwesterly direction

Thunder snow absolutely amazing

If you have been reading it you will know that he started his forecast from september and has already had October and November wrong. So I think he's a bit gutted

I gather the part about October and November is currently wrong already. Gutted for you mate but at least you've tried.

I don't think ian will reply to your comment.Steve as he has to sit on the fence. But by Monday I expect the 15-30 day forecast will have changed to say the chance of cold and wintry showers are possible.

With all the info regarding the storm in the bearing sea any idea when the last big storm similar to this was?? We maybe able to find out what the weather might be like for us as a storm as intense as this doesn't happen every year.925 was the last big storm there. After searching the Web I have found out that the last storm similar to this one was 1977 so could we be inline for a winter similar to 77-78??? Netweather info regarding that winter :1977-78: Mid January, 6 foot drifts! A week later, and 4 inches fell. Mid February saw 4 inches also. Late January, heavy snow in Scotland, drifting, 28 inches falling in parts! Mid February (see above) was very snowy in the North East, East and South West. February 11th had 1 ft in Durham and Edinburgh. Feb. 15-16th South West England, blizzard with huge drifts, sounds like my cup of tea!

Can't see anything mate Delete mods Sorry

Liam duttons blog on twitter http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/jet-stream-hinting-early-winter-bring/7539

Liam duttons blog on twitter. http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/jet-stream-hinting-early-winter-bring/7539

Snow on snowdon this morning too

Just a quick question roger. What I thought was quite evident this year is the amount of low pressures coming along the south coast. Do you think that this might continue into winter and a chance of storms coming in at a west to east along the south bringing colder weather further north??

I'm sure there was a 5.4 yesterday mate