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Winter Frost

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    Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Winter Frost

    what is becoming evident is that when the atlantic does come racing in, it is likely to strike a brick wall whcih will drive WAA north into the arctic. that has positive feedback implications re wave breaking into the lower strat but more importantly, we have no idea where this 'wall' is going to be. i doubt it can get too far to our west, but a building scandi high may well be on the agenda if its anywhere in the vicintiy of the meridian. given the strongly modelled polar profile just the other side of the pole, a building scandi ridge could get interesting going forward.

    You keep saying the meridian but do you mean 20 degrees west (on gfs) or Greenwich? I think if you mean Greenwich then it really won't impact us. 

    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    That'll be the same "cold zonality" that didn't verify the whole of last winter despite the phrase being thrown around continuously. "cold" zonality is rare. By the time it gets down to t+48 it'll be bog standard westerly stuff. Wet roads, steamed up windows, damp sheds etc etc. Yawn.

     

    Bring on December and something drier, colder and more interesting (please). Whatever happened to sunny, crisp days and frosts? Did the last Labour Government spend them all?

    Thats not entirely true.

    We had two snowfalls here and there was as much as 8 inches of snow at 200m around January/February time. Cold zonality can be good here. I am expecting some snow from it soon.

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Winter Frost

    Did it lie? For how long did it last?

    If you want (most on this forum do) severity and longevity in a cold spell, say more than 5 days, then we rely on a 'cold pool' of uppers to 'tap' into.

    This isn't readily available in November. South-easterlies aren't that cold, nor easterlies or north-easterlies. Straight Northerlies from the Arctic perhaps but it's a rare scenario.

    As well as blocking to our North-East/ East being weaker than later on in winter (long term average of course as each winter is different) then we struggle to stop the Atlantic train pushing in mild air.

    As North America cools and the warmth remains to the south then this temperature gradient fuels the jet. Again, working against us.

    Then there is the surface conditions that all work against us. Temperature of the ground, SSTs etc etc.

    Same goes for May really. May has a very strong sun but (excluding the last 5-10 days) it doesn't deliver the temperatures of July or August. There is a lag between decreasing/increasing sun and temperature on the ground.

    So to conclude, of course it can and has snowed in November but it's unlikely.

    Remember, it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas.

    November usually has a strengthening Polar Vortex (this year is an exception thankfully), stronger Jet (this is there this year) than later on, less cold to tap into, higher surface temperatures and sea temperatures (which is relevant since we don't create a cold pool ourselves - or very rarely).

    Thankfully, this year the PV has taken hits early on and looks to be flailing around.

    We seem to not quite be able to get any real cold into the UK in the next couple of weeks, however, it does seem (from background indicators) that after a transition period after this tame easterly, with westerly winds returning, we should get a much better crack at it in late November/Early December. This time with far more condusive conditions to cold with much colder air available to be 'tapped' into.

    Hope this perhaps helps :)

    It lied at 1500 feet. I think it might differ for NI versus England.. Our cold and snow comes from the NW not the East. I am nearly sure its easier to get snow at christmas than easter since its coldest in December here. I can totally see where you are coming from but I think the people on the model thread need to be more broad in their discussion instead of only thinking of se england where the climate is quite a bit different.

    It definitely snows in November here. Bar last year most years have had first snow falling in November. Our NW position helps

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Winter Frost

    Putting aside the Strat developments, OPi etc and just looking at the raw outputs of the GFS runs over the past few weeks, it's apparent (at least to my eyes), that the building blocks really are beginning to take shape for a cold spell either later in November or early in December. 

     

    As the days progress the output keeps toying with the idea of cold air flooding into Europe in FI land but staying just out of reach, which is fine , I'd rather we get a decent cold spell in December as opposed to Mid or late November as long as it comes off the back of relative cold, so that the dew points have better chance to going sub zero and the wet bulb temperatures get low. 

     

    There's nowt worse that seeing a foot of snow fall overnight only for it to have all but melted by the time you get to midday due to the wet bulb being too high.

     

    Things look promising and I am liking the way it's all shaping up

    Why? What difference does it make? If its going to be cold in November, its going to be cold. Yes I realise the sea might be a bit warmer but if the cold comes from the arctic or Scandinavia, it really will not matter. 

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I wouldn't get down about one run it is only the beginning of November we don't want it to turn cold to early it will more than likely be a milder second half, its been a good morning again lets wait and see what the 12z shows.

    Well I don't mind if its cold November, December, January and mild February. Folk go on about the snow being too early but at 9 hours of daylight does it really matter? Daylight increases alot in February. Lets see what 12z shows yes.

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