Winter Frost
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Posts posted by Winter Frost
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Didn't like the end of the 00z, hopefully 6z is good.
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Oh my goodness. Cannot get over the last section of the gfs P. It goes from a NE to a N!! Exactly what happened in 2010, would be fantastic if this happened again!! Fingers crossed.
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Is it just me or do certain posters on the model output thread always say that its mild and be negative? It seems like some can never say cold is coming.
I think some might even be trying to wind people up.And whats with people saying to reserve the cold for December? It is 6th November and days are less than 9 hours long now, of course snow can stick around now if its cold.
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Undercutting drama looks the order of the day!
Good trend from the GFS for those looking for cold later in November, we need to see more trough disruption earlier and the troughing to elongate and a separation of of this from being fed by low heights over sw Greenland.
For newbies undercutting is the key here, the shape of the low near the UK, so football not good, oval better, elongated suggests high pressure to the ne has won the fight, at this point we'd normally then see a shortwave develop and run se into mainland Europe.
As this happens the troughing will give up the ghost allowing high pressure to the ne to extend further west.
The lows may undercut but where is the cold going to come from? Looking on gfs cold is way up at Greenland so undercutting might not be much use?
I personally would prefer the cold to come from there anyway as the Easterlies don't do well here.
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Nope. That was the end of November not the start.
Also November 2010 was very rare.
Yes it was but I have seen lying snow in October. November snow is not rare in NI and Scotland. Anyway this is off topic so moving on.
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Its not exactly rare to have snow in November. Perhaps in England but I think you must've forgotten about November 2010.
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Look at the patch of 520 dam over the Atlantic. This is what I was talking about earlier.
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Its been on since September. We've only had 1/2 frosts but a whole lotta nights were the temp hit 2 and 3c.
A few days ago it was quite wintry with snow down to 1,000 feet.. at midday I recorded a temp of 3c here.
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My first post in this thread
i have noticed something different in the last few weeks to this time last year,and that is my dog(Alaskan malamute) has not shed a hair,where as last year i got bags full off him,that tells me winter is coming and maybe he senses it
here is my pooch
Your dog is gorgeous.
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Well lets hope that this winter is nothing like the disaster that we received last year. It would appear that the cold in North America has started up again as evident from the snow storm in Maine.. which to me is quite worrying. I'm not sure if it will impact the British Isles but if it were to I would not be surprised. There are only a few winters that I know of which were cold on both sides of the Atlantic - 2010 and 1963.
People keep talking about the cold coming at the end of the month but i've looked at the GFS Parallel and while there is massive change in each run they all seem to show the mild over us. In saying that we could get some snow from the cold in Canada as last year Scotland and Ireland did receive some snow around February from that. (I received 3/4 inches one night) I would disagree with the person who said that the cold air will moderate too much, yes it will moderate but if it keeps coming over and cooling the ocean moderation will be reduced. (like last year)
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Good Morning All-
Stayed away for a couple of days - I see no change in what I presented 2 days ago despite some saying that it was just a hopecast.
The NH pattern from the long range GFS ensembles have got it wrong trying to overun the whole pattern & exit the -AO pattern very quickly. This is standard fair for the GFS & why myself & generally the NOAA / CPC generally discount it....
For the UK whilst the flow may appear from the atlantic the surface temps will remain supressed with generally lower heights & polar air catching up the stalled fronts.
Post that ECM still the best fit-
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110600/EDH1-168.GIF?06-12
Remember up to 2 /3 days ago people still posting the GFS ensemble mean showing the whole pattern not shifting for 2 weeks -
The GFS control feels out a best fit ( relative to what I presented so have a browse....)
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0
Higher heights being sucked towards Greenland from the lower central part Scandi the Warm air gradually being sucked out.
If we look where the residual heights are left they support a block somewhere close to Svalbard - maybe a tadge further west for an east based NAO or a tadge east feeding in very cold air to Europe.
At no point have I said the UK will get very cold, however the general pattern ( earmarked to change around the 14th-16th) will start sucking the warmth out of Europe.
Watch out for some possible snow for Scotland Monday......
S
Snow on high ground?? Can't see where.
Snow in NI to lowish levels the other day but was forecast.
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Yes but it can bring cold. Last year Ireland and Scotland received snow which originated there.
The changing daylight hours thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Thankfully still just about bright here at 5pm.