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daz_4

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Everything posted by daz_4

  1. daz_4
    ECM paints very familiar picture this evening with another arctic outbreak to SE.
  2. daz_4
    We all know the script. The so called tease phase is now underway and downgrade/shift to east phase will follow shortly after until we are left with nothing.
  3. daz_4
    Not likely with storm after storm tracking north. The Arctic will be even in worse state on the Atlantic side when this is over.
  4. daz_4
    12z puts winter on hold for Europe including Scandinavia. Horrendous run.
  5. daz_4
    Can't get much worse than this for Arctic.
  6. daz_4
    Once again, models found a way to downgrade already poor setup.
  7. daz_4
    You are one day behind. This is 6z from yesterday
  8. daz_4
    Czech. You can see the temps for December 10 for my location below. http://www.in-pocasi.cz/archiv/archiv-bar-graph.img.php?stanice=ostrava&mesic=12&rok=2010 It will be much colder here if ENS are to be believed At least on 24th, following days will probably be warmer.
  9. daz_4
    The period from Christmas to New Year is in 90% always warm in central Europe so I don't expect much. Even great Decembers are defenseless against foehn wind from Alps around 24th. It's one of these weird phenomenons you can count on. Looking at GEFS ENS, majority of them show coldest Christmas in 10 years so definitely chance for something more seasonal but I won't be surprised if they flip.
  10. daz_4
    Interesting ENS for sure with high pressure from the east dominating with some bringing easterly right after Christmas. 90% even show below freezing temps for 24th over central Europe. Potential (ugh ) is there.
  11. daz_4
    I see GFS is up to its usual shenanigans with cold air over central Europe
  12. daz_4
    Now get that easterly under 100h because GFS is downgrade machine when it comes to cold air from east
  13. daz_4
    Control run is interesting with HP pushing north. Some GEFS ENS also trying.
  14. daz_4
    Well, northern blocking is there so I guess we can't complain As many said at least it will be seasonal. I was very pessimistic in the morning but it could be worse. After all the temps will be below average at 2m for majority of Europe. Vortex looks very happy so I will gladly stay hidden under HP for the time being.
  15. daz_4
    I just want average winter but it seems I'm asking too much. The last average winter month was February 13. Almost four years now. It is just impossible to get winter to Europe. Horrible outlook which will again result in summer drought because there will be no snow in mountains. Winter 16/17 - brought to you by potential.
  16. daz_4
    Just to clear up any confusion I was talking specifically about the potential easterly in the next week. Mucka is of course correct. ENS show plenty of northern blocking in FI leading up to Christmas.
  17. daz_4
    They are for my location. I wasn't talking about UK
  18. daz_4
    Unfortunately, the support from GEFS ENS for easterly is slowly dissapearing. OP and control one of the coldest but even they can't push the cold air west. I'm afraid ECM will be correct again and we will be left with inversion at best even here in central Europe with cold air heading to SE.
  19. daz_4
    Knife edge stuff. I guess OP will be on the coldest side. Arctic days here if this verifies.
  20. daz_4
    Disgusting. I would like to know on what drugs the ECM seasonal was two days ago with that "distinct negative NAO" for December.
  21. daz_4
    I'm not happy because I bought new winter shoes. I should have used the money for alcohol which I need more now.
  22. daz_4
    Many GEFS ENS are going similar way so OP is not an outlier but hard to take anything after 120h seriously right now.
  23. daz_4
    A Torpedo from the east on pertubation 16, heh. And still huge scatter on 13th. Same as 24 hours ago.
  24. daz_4
    Do you guys remember when the phrase "short term pain, long term gain" was thrown around at the beginning of the third decade of November? How long is short?
  25. daz_4
    Still very unclear how much cold air there will actually be over Europe come beginning of the next week. Huge spread on 13th. OP once again singing mild tune in FI. Not warm but not exactly cold either with Europe shielded by HP and lows tracking north but definitely terrible outlook for already weak sea ice in Kara and Barents sea.
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