Abyss

After the exceedingly mild Winter I'm happy with it being a cold start to Spring

Currently -1 and just had a sleety snow shower. -1 and still won't snow properly ha. Snow flakes mixed froze on impact and there is a thin covering of ice everywhere.

Shows it turning more wintry shortly after that

Insightful

Where are the most favoured spots for snow this week? Scotland,NI and Northern England?

GFS and UKMO look pretty similar at T144 GFS UKMO

Snow warning issued STATUS YELLOW Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick Cold overnight with scattered snow showers, mostly affecting parts of west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster leading to accumulations of 1 to 3 cm in some areas, most especially on higher ground. Widespread frost also with overnight lows of 0 to -3 degrees Celsius. Issued: Wednesday 17 February 2016 16:00 Valid: Wednesday 17 February 2016 20:00 to Thursday 18 February 2016 11:00 Snow showers showing up over Donegal at present

We didn't have a winter so spring can take its time. It's Autumn 95% of time anyway

Tonight: Heavy rain in evening, but winds turning southwest and easing. Further rain overnight but turning increasingly to snow, even to lower levels although becoming lighter and more patchy. Minimum Temperature 0°C.

-8 uppers in the West at t48 -5 Dew

Met Eireann-Thursday: bright and cool with westerly winds and scattered showers, some heavy and possibly thundery and falling as sleet or snow in northwestern areas.

Sherkin island Ireland 84mph gust at 1am

An energy platform 50km to the South of Ireland recorded that gust

Oh yes my mistake

I didn't say it scuppered cold Nick. Apparently it was unprecedented for such mild air to be pushed deep in to Arctic that's all I read here anyway and that had serious knock on effects to any LRF which didn't foresee that happening. That's my whole point, one small thing can happen and changes how the rest of dominoes will fall. Can't say it didn't matter to what happened after that long term as the immediate small term changes lead to big changes down the line.

All I've heard all Winter long is a cold spell is dependable on a SSW in the second half of winter and now apparently it was a hindrance. That's why I don't buy in to long range forecasts no matter what signs etc are showing. As you said yourself the implications the hurricane had and no one could have foreseen that happening therefore LRF are a waste of time IMO. 90% of time we'll have wind and rain in Winter its our climate. Hindsight is a great thing looking back at what made things go wrong but in reality it was only a guess to begin with.

Looks pretty erratic

For the talk of long range FC the January Hurricane had huge impacts as it pushed in to the Arctic and no LRF could foresee that and it had huge implications on the pattern after so IMO LRF aren't really up to much. Most of the time the weather will be mild wet and windy so to say a chance of cold at the end of winter and mild before that is nothing to get excited about in terms of verification. Anyway hopefully all areas see some snow this upcoming week

Thanks. I'm no longer confused

Is it me or have Glosea and Met office outlook changed back and forth a lot lately in regards to the most probably outcome for later this month? I wouldn't be surprised if Met office outlook changed tomorrow again.

More sleety

Another flash counted 1 sec before thunder so as close as it gets

The lightning isn't showing up on two different lightning radars I checked which is very strange. I thought maybe it was an isolated strike with me that didn't register but obviously not. Maybe has something to do with snow?

Briefly lost power. Then heard thunder immediately after. Lightning strike was very close. Turning white outside too

BALLYHAISE CAVAN(A) SW09 Gust 23RECENT SNOW 1