polar vortex

UKMO t144 chart looks excellent with the prospect of more amplification going forward but you would not want to hang your hat on a UKMO chart at that range, plus it is the only run to show such a strong EPO ridge. The outlook beyond the middle of next week could go either way but there seems to be more uncertainty of a return to more zonal westerly type weather. I would not be seduced or put off by ECM extended ens as these can flip, flop as we have seen this winter but with a continuing strat signal on our side I would not be surprised if the models took a step towards a much colder mid and long term outlook. Plenty over the next week to keep us more than interested though, so personally I am more than happy with that for the next several days.

The amplification in the pattern will determine the way the low behaves. Less amplification = deeper low more eastward direction.

Well the cold and snow chances are still there but the great looking synoptics have gone along with the likely hood of the synoptics morphing into a deep cold easterly draw, that is not to say they will not return but at the moment they have definitely been put on the back burner. Still much to look foward to over the next seven days with a big fat question mark still hanging over the orientation, direction and depth of the sliding energy from the north west.

As others have said amazing how the heights to the north on the gfs have all but gone by t144 where as the ukmo akin to chalk and cheese with much better heights and almost certainly adding longevity to the cold spell.

Stella run coming I feel. lol from t114 to t138 and still snow from the midlands south. Wish I could believe that. This run may give the 18z last night a run for its money with regards to the easterly as the 12z today has the cold much further westward already at t138.

Every reason to think that many locations north, south, east and west will see snowfall and lying snow next week, exactly where and how much is obviously a big unknown at this stage but the threat is most definitely there. The runs to me anyway look to firming up on a notable wintry spell of weather to come both in terms of cold and snow. Fingers crossed for real winter weather fans.

I see the Met have forecast a colder week next week with an increasing risk of snow and severe frosts. They certainly did not see that coming. looking cold to very cold next week and I think we have the stratosphere warming to thank for this. Looking forward to the ECM it should be a good one.

I do believe what we are seeing in the model output is associated with the downwelling heatflux from the moderate to strong warming we have had higher up. The more longer term amplified outputs could be a combination of this and perhaps MJO wave imput.

I would agree with this, We have seen this so often in the past before. It could be that the model is at first to progressive on a pattern change. It could also be the possible effects of a MJO wave and its implications on the atmosphere. Again the amplification could be down to the strong heatflux that we have seen in the stratosphere will have effects as it propagates downward towards the troposphere.

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Short term yes, longer term it is Europe and the UK that will benefit the most. Major northerly blocking to come.

New poster here I thought I would offer my musings on the warming that has and is taking place in the mid to upper stratosphere. This strong warming will surely have ramifications as it makes it way down eventually into the troposphere.Atlantic ridging would surely benefit from the downwelling warming that will be some days away yet from showing its hand in the troposphere but the model outputs are now grasping this I think. The stratosphere charts showed lacklustre geopotential height rises due to the warming but this may well be a very different story in the troposphere. Therefore it could be a type stratosphere/troposphere disconnect in that respect. Any type of MJO wave into the troposphere/stratosphere (the stronger the better) would also aid in stronger ridge building and amplification up north.