[Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards]

UKMO t144 chart looks excellent with the prospect of more amplification going forward but you would not want to 

hang your hat on a UKMO chart at that range, plus it is the only run to show such a strong EPO ridge. 

The outlook beyond the middle of next week could go either way but there seems to be more uncertainty of a return 

to more zonal westerly type weather. I would not be seduced or put off by ECM extended ens as these can flip, flop 

as we have seen this winter but with a continuing strat signal on our side I would not be surprised if the models took 

a step towards a much colder mid and long term outlook. 

Plenty over the next week to keep us more than interested though, so personally I am more than happy with that 

for the next several days. 

[Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards]

If the low exiting the eastern USA at T144hrs is more amplified and held further back then yes you'd probably get the ridge further north so your start point in terms of topple would be more favourable.

The amplification in the pattern will determine the way the low behaves. Less amplification = deeper low more eastward 

direction. 

[Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards]

Well the cold and snow chances are still there but the great looking synoptics have gone along with the likely hood of the 

synoptics morphing into a deep cold easterly draw, that is not to say they will not return but at the moment they have 

definitely been put on the back burner.

Still much to look foward to over the next seven days with a big fat question mark still hanging over the orientation, direction 

and depth of the sliding energy from the north west. 

[Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards]

As others have said amazing how the heights to the north on the gfs have all but gone by t144 where as 

the ukmo akin to chalk and cheese with much better heights and almost certainly adding longevity to the 

cold spell.

[Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards]

Stella run coming I feel. lol from t114 to t138 and still snow from the midlands south. Wish I could believe that. This run may give the 18z

last night a run for its money with regards to the easterly as the 12z today has the cold much further westward already at t138.

[Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards]

Every reason to think that many locations north, south, east and west will see snowfall and lying snow 

next week, exactly where and how much is obviously a big unknown at this stage but the threat is 

most definitely there.

The runs to me anyway look to firming up on a notable wintry spell of weather to come both in terms

of cold and snow. Fingers crossed for real winter weather fans.

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

I see the Met have forecast a colder week next week with an increasing risk of snow and severe frosts.

They certainly did not see that coming. looking cold to very cold next week and I think we have the 

stratosphere warming to thank for this. Looking forward to the ECM it should be a good one.

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

I do believe what we are seeing in the model output is associated with the downwelling heatflux from the moderate to 

strong warming we have had higher up. The more longer term amplified outputs could be a combination of this and 

perhaps MJO wave imput.

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Just going back to my post yesterday. After viewing the 06 gfs and ensembles, I am seeing the gfs going back to it's original trend of height rises towards Greenland circa 11 days from now. It first spotted this at 16 days out then dropped the trend and now the 06z has picked it up again.

I would agree with this, We have seen this so often in the past before. It could be that the model is at first to progressive on 

a pattern change. It could also be the possible effects of a MJO wave and its implications on the atmosphere. Again the 

amplification could be down to the strong  heatflux that we have seen in the stratosphere will have effects as it propagates 

downward towards the troposphere. 

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

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[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

Meanwhile, the US is getting bombarded with brutal cold air. I suspect this warming in the stratosphere and split PVs played a higher role than most realize.

Short term yes, longer term it is Europe and the UK that will benefit the most. Major northerly blocking to 

come.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

New poster here I thought I would offer my musings on the warming that has and is taking place in the mid to upper stratosphere. 

This strong warming will surely have ramifications as it makes it way down eventually into the troposphere.Atlantic ridging would surely  benefit from the downwelling warming that will be some days away yet from showing its hand in the troposphere but the model outputs are now grasping this I think.

The stratosphere charts showed lacklustre geopotential height rises due to the warming but this may well be a very different story in the troposphere. Therefore it could be a type stratosphere/troposphere 

disconnect in that respect. Any type of MJO wave into the troposphere/stratosphere (the stronger the 

better) would also aid in stronger ridge building and amplification up north.