Pat Butcher
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Posts posted by Pat Butcher
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8 minutes ago, mike57 said:
Looking at predictions for wind speed / gusts on here Berwick-on-Tweed looks to be in the firing line for the worst of it currently, I have never seen 90mph+ predictions before. We are right on the edge of the Amber warning here, and I think the exact track is going to make all the difference, a few miles either way is going to be the difference between a big impact event and a typical winter gale.
This is exceptional stuff, there seems to be model agreement for 90+mph gusts too.
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31 minutes ago, Phildb2 said:
Metcheck.com are forecasting THUNDER SNOW !! for Warwickshire Saturday lunchtime
With 75% forecast confidence I see. Best get the sledge out!
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10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Plume:
Compared to:
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Based on @staplehurst's success rate so far this year, I've concluded that he is not an exceptionally skilled weather forecaster, but in fact a psychic who can see into the future.
I for one welcome our new psychic convective overlord.
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2 minutes ago, Summer18 said:
I did notice the rotation in the storm also, can still hear the thunder now. It was actually scary driving through it because I thought the windscreen was about to smash! It’s the closest I have seen to a supercell for many years anyhow.
Honestly mate, best storm of the year on a cold day in September, would never have thought it.
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I suggest that’s a mini supercell near Leeds. It’s been at 10 strikes/min for two hours now. When I was nearby, the wind was drawing strongly towards a clearly rotating core roughly 200yds wide.
Am open to other hypotheses also, could just be a long-lived pulse storm with coincidental rotation..
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6 minutes ago, matty40s said:
The thing keeps growing...
That's not what she said.
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9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Compare current radar with Euro 4 hr 06z
WRF
Aperge
GFS
HIRLAM
ICON
ECM
What do you reckon?
I reckon UKV has smashed the lot out of the park.
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I know everything's a supercell to us overexcitable storm nerds, so let me be the first.
I see a cheeky hook echo, and it seems to have broken off from the NNW flow to NNE.
A storm spotter report from the ground (my Mum) say it's the biggest storm she's seen in years. What do we think?
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13 minutes ago, Zak M said:
Just noticed a cumulus tower to my east
Hope you’ve got your tornado shelter prepped, looks like a nasty one.
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5 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:
Incredible from the UKV ( latest)
60mph gusts in the middle of all that mess as well!
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16 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:
I'm in Porthmadog North Wales, could we get anything
Unlikely this evening and overnight, but Porthmadog is well in the firing line any time after breakfast tomorrow mate.
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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Site of the charts can be found here: https://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
Fair play to 'em for trying, but screenshotting GFS composite parameters from lightningwizard is a pretty lazy attempt at storm forecasting IMO...
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Apparently I’m directly under one of those heavy Leeds showers. Only a couple of drops, suggesting that the precip is evaporating on its way to the deck.
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Hasn't really shown up on lightning detectors but a very significant ｆｌａｓｈｙｂｏｉworked its way past LBA airport earlier. Lots of luscious white flashes and shotgun thunder.
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Got nailed-on caught out in the open in that main cell, thinking I could get up a hill and catch a few flashes before the rain hit.
After sweating my tits off for three days, was absolutely fantastic.
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3 minutes ago, Snipper said:
Wouldn’t mind the pound coins that are being dropped either.
Although maybe not from 30,000 feet.
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10 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:
Big organised area of storms Friday morning on there
Bullish from Met Office there. Love the talk of frequent lightning and large hailstones!
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Interesting - GFS and ICON both going for storms breaking out over Pennine and North Welsh hills on Weds eve. EURO4 having none of it.
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ICON FI run fancying a huge MCS scything West to East across the British mainland on Friday night. Which would be an acceptable way to end the week, to be fair.
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Very distant rumbles from the North Yorkshire cell, great views here though.
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Just now, Weather-history said:
The sky to my south 10 mins apart
Whew
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Nothing storms-wise up a hill here in Leeds, great view though.
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Storm Arwen
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Pat Butcher
I appreciate it's not your mate's fault, but in general the blasé attitude to weather in this country is ridiculous. In my opinion, a Red warning should be grounds for all non-essential workplaces to close for the day.