Pat Butcher
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Posts posted by Pat Butcher
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Not too fussed to have missed a direct hit, been serenely sat on the step watching it strobing away into the distance. What a show!
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I can still see flashes from that storm 30 miles away heading into the Dales. Absolutely incredible. Hoping for that storm to veer NE enough to get a direct hit here.
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Finally broken the NSC duck! Got some exceptional flashes (with no thunder) racing away to the NE with a beast of a cell on its way for a direct hit. Cheers everyone!
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Towers going up to my west over the dales and to my east towards the north sea
I feel like there'll be some great cells kicking off soon, there's still a ton of energy in the atmosphere.
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Gorgeous cumulonimbus pileus to my East, which bust straight through to continue climbing into a Cb in moments. Massive updrafts - somewhere north east of here will get a pasting!
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Saw two strikes out of that storm that passed over harrogate, glad I've at
least seen something at such an early stage
For us in leeds keep an eye further south, if something can develop there then we really will be in a prime location heading into this evening.
My worst fear last night was that big storms develop over us, but only become fully mature once north of us. This has happened with the darlo storm but still very early days!
Yup, although it was bloody spectacular developing over us!
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Stunning skies in North Leeds. Can anyone tell me what this is?
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Agreed with those advising caution on the Estofex forecast. Ingredients based forecasting is exactly that.
Possessing an onion and wearing a beret doesn't necessarily mean that you can make French Onion Soup. However, it also doesn't mean that you can't, either...
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Opening a beer for that Estofex forecast...
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Hi folks,
Just to check - UKMO have downgraded my part of the world to zero precipitation tomorrow. Assuming that the model gets it spot on (big assumption I know), does that mean guaranteed no storms?
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I'm actually thinking of driving up to the Chevin tomorrow, it's only 30 minutes away! Aging doggie can't manage too long a walk, especially in this heat and it's an amazing vantage point up there with just a short walk. Pooch loves storm watching with me and I'm finished work nice and early. It's either that or a slow walk up the local moor side,but there are a lot of pylons and lines and I had a close encounter with lightning a few years ago up there!
Sounds like a fantastic day out. Take some pictures - even if the Lincolnshire lot do get all the storms they'll never have seen a view like it!
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That's odd - I live in Leeds too and we have definitely gotten more than a couple of storms over the past two years (which isn't saying much at all, is it?).
Here's my theory: I grew up in rural Wales, where you could see for miles around. However, living in Leeds as I do now, there's loads of hills and buildings everywhere. If there was a storm within 10 miles in Wales, I'd have seen and heard it. Now, I can see something kicking off on radar 5 miles up the road, but have absolutely no concept of it where I am.
If I had the day off tomorrow, I'd head up the Chevin and sit outside the Royalty, watching the anvils roll by. What a great day that would be!
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eh!
I meant the whole warning area should be about 50 miles further north with yorkshire (the southern part of the warning area) missing out. So the warning area reaches just north of edinburgh/glasgow. Only my opinion though not saying it's certain to be right.
As a 2-year member of the NSC, I refuse to believe you mate! We're in the firing line, it's up to the gods now.
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Beautiful sky from the office window
Welcome Tony!
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Up to Saturday morning from here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0
Wow, tomorrow afternoon/evening is absolutely exceptional on that model, storms running east to west across the spine of northern mainland Britain. Less so on GFS but more than enough energy to kick off.
I'll be interested to see what the experts (Nick F, Estofex) make of the severe threat. The models definitely don't scream tornadoes however there's hugely significant disagreement (see the two 0-6km shear models).
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It's too early on Monday morning to post anything in the technical thread, but Wednesday 18-21Z is making me rather tumescent...
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I'm getting lightning symbol for Leicester via Accuweather, whats going on peeps??
Warm humid evening, a couple of hundred J/kg CAPE, probably only just meets the hypersensitive threshold for thunder. There'll probably be thunder forecast over a very broad area, with a couple of strikes popping up here and there.
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Just having some welcomed heavy rain in Honiton! Still only a short shower and unfortunately no thunder.
Any Altocumulus Castellanus?
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Anyone else spotted that little storm just to the east of Basel? Can't be more than 10 miles in diameter yet it's clocking up just shy of 180 strikes/min. Is that normal for a strong pulse storm or indicative of something stronger?
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Really? Would be absolutely chuffed. According to the Netweather storm risk calculator we're in for 1300 CAPE with -5 LI until about midday when it all dissipates. It is really hot and humid out there at the moment but there isn't a cloud in the sky.
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No forecasts from ConvectiveWeather.co.uk (formerly UKASF) as yet...so that's Nick F away in the US, Estofex down and no UKASF...this will be the first significant plume event without any of those in place for quite some time.
I can't handle this lack of risk-based storm forecasting fix. Let's make our own.
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Just FYI - you can set up a proximity alarm on the Blitzortung Lightning Monitor app on Android, so that it'll go off when lightning is detected within X km of your location. Definitely not 100% reliable but I'll certainly be leaving my phone next to my bed tonight.
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the 12z NMM hi-res is out and I must say, it's rather impressive, progging elevated thunderstorms during the early hours of friday morning for central southern england (say Bristol to London) these storms move quickly to the north east and dissipate...a second round of surface based thunderstorms fire during the afternoon over the SE and eastern most counties, these could be severe given the low level moisture rich air and huge amounts of surface instability.....as posted earlier, this though depends on detritus from earlier elevated convection clearing
Just to put me out of my misery, anything as far north and central as Leeds is out of the question?
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Whoever said we might get excited when LightningWizard's charts come into range was spot on. Looking at LightningWizard for 09Z on Friday I'd posit this is a classic Estofex Level 1 scenario for mainly the South Eastern tip of England and to a lesser extent mainland England as far as Bristol in the West and Newcastle in the North. Low level CAPE in a minimally heated environment, but with 150-300m2/s2 SRH1 and 40-60kt to greatly assist organisation should anything happen to develop.
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Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
That bloke from Otley I was conversing with earlier - good luck mate, enjoy!