Pat Butcher
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Posts posted by Pat Butcher
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13 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
Doesn't look like it, yet!
Was that estofex level 2 really necessary?
To be fair, by their criteria, Estofex's warning has verified perfectly - that squall line was convective in nature, enhanced the speeds of the underlying wind field and its winds undoubtedly exceeded 49kt in places.
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Just had the squall line through in Leeds, huge buckets of heavy rain driven horizontally by 50mph+ gusts against the windows.
5 minutes later, the air is completely still with some light drizzle, and the sparrows are making a racket in a bush somewhere in the garden.
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A few flashes and rumbles earlier.
The highlight, however, has to be this rather majestic towering cumulus rushing north to join its thundery mates.
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
Red = upper troughs
Blue = cold front
Gotcha, thank you!
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So this trough that’s meant to come in from the East, creating storms moving from West to East... When’s it meant to hit, and how could I find it on a model chart?
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I’m so hopeful for tonight.
No worries if it is a bust, but I remember big storms like football world cups. The last one for here was the Yorkshire supercell of 2015. It’s a little bookmark embedded in my memory of who I was at the time, where I lived, what I was doing and who I was with. I’d love another little bookmark and a spectacular light show tonight.
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1 hour ago, Chris K said:
Does anyone know where I can generate a lightning strike animation of, for example, the last 24 hours? Can't seem to find anywhere that lets me download it.
http://en.blitzortung.org/archive_data.php
Just change the time parameters accordingly and set Map Selection to UK under the Image menu.
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- Popular Post
What an absolute privilege last night was, eh?
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Some beautiful nastiness brewing in Leeds. Doesn’t look like it’ll kick off here, but congratulations to whoever’s on the receiving end of this one.
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At 60-100 strikes per minute, a big overshooting top and what could be a hook echo on radar, I strongly suspect a supercell over Normandy on its way to you lucky sods in the South...
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8 minutes ago, Gorky said:
This is my image Paul tried to link to. Shot from somewhere near Flamingo Land looking WSW toward York. The muppet in me forgot I'd had my camera set on medium jpegs rather than RAW as I'd not wanted to confuse my Dad who borrowed it the other day, otherwise I'd probably do something better with the pics
Thanks - nailed on supercell right there
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8 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:
It sounds like some family members up in Yorkshire are getting some good storms.
One thing amazes me as a weather geek is how people’s view of what’s going on is so localised, almost to the street they live on. I saw someone commenting how it was “blue sky but thundering, weird weather” when in fact there we’re storms less than a mile away. It’s almost as if people look at one small patch of sky out of one window and think that’s indicative of the whole sky! If they’d probably looked out of another they’d have noticed the great big looming storm clouds!
Peoples perception of weather fascinates me.
I think a lot of it comes down to surface/elevated and day/night too. Yesterday’s surface-based stuff gave me constant daytime rumbles but no lightning when the storm was in East Leeds, about 3-4 miles away. On the other hand, that elevated Yorkshire supercell a few years back was still visible, strobing away when the maps had it over County Durham, a good 80 miles to the north east.
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1 minute ago, yorksdc said:
Rumblings now from the wakefield small cell, heading for garforth/ micklefield
Mind getting a hairdryer out to blow it towards central Leeds? Cheers mate
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Also, these two pigeons are shagging on my neighbour’s roof - it’s all kicking off in Leeds today.
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Distant, constant rumbles from this cell in East Leeds. Can’t see any lightning. Action is action though, right?
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I suspect that looking at the maps that Hull is the place to be tomorrow. And believe me, I would never say that normally.
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It's cracking warm weather, there's CAPE in the forecasts, the storm forum is awake from its hibernation, Nick F is posting!
I'm happy again!
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1 hour ago, cheese said:
Same as last time - too much cloud preventing convection from kicking off. It seems like every time there is a possibility for severe storms, we have way more cloud than forecast. We are cursed.
The clag is still about but it's shot up to 23*C with 69% humidity. Good work!
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19*C and overcast here - a full 3-5 degrees below model forecast.
To what extent do you think this lack of surface heating will put the kibosh on the storm hopes of Leeds, Netweather Community Forum?
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5 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:
Can anyone knowledgeable post a latest verdict on the situation?
It's thundering in Devon.
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12 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:
Hi there everyone, I just wondered if any of you kind people could help. I live near to Stokenchurch in Bucks and just wondered if we are likely to see any storms here tonight or tomorrow.
It's just I have a new guide dog who is still in training and gets nervous at bangs etc and should I be in the firing line i will ask for someone to come and sit with him and me.
Your assistance and expertise is a lifeline for me. Thank you.
I appreciate it's so hard to forecast but just wondered if I'm in a zone?
Thank you for your help and good luck everyone, stay safe
Kindest regards.
Nothing is guaranteed when forecasting storms, and you may well see nothing, but it's as likely as it gets that you'll see some storms in the next 36 hours.
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7 minutes ago, Dami said:
And me.
Although I could post another twitter.
what's the durr-nuh all about?
A reference to the film Jaws, mate.
Jaws is a 1975 American thriller film directed by Steven Spielberg and based on Peter Benchley's 1974 novel of the same name. In the story, a giant man-eating great white shark attacks beachgoers on Amity Island, a fictional New England summer resort town, prompting the local police chief to hunt it with the help of a marine biologist and a professional shark hunter. The film stars Roy Scheider as police chief Martin Brody, Robert Shaw as shark hunter Quint, Richard Dreyfuss as oceanographer Matt Hooper, Murray Hamilton as Larry Vaughn, the mayor of Amity Island, and Lorraine Gary as Brody's wife, Ellen. The screenplay is credited to both Benchley, who wrote the first drafts, and actor-writer Carl Gottlieb, who rewrote the script during principal photography.
Shot mostly on location on Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts, the film had a troubled production, going over budget and past schedule. As the art department's mechanical sharks suffered many malfunctions, Spielberg decided to mostly suggest the animal's presence, employing an ominous, minimalistic theme created by composer John Williams to indicate the shark's impending appearances. Spielberg and others have compared this suggestive approach to that of classic thriller director Alfred Hitchcock. Universal Pictures gave the film what was then an exceptionally wide release for a major studio picture, over 450 screens, accompanied by an extensive marketing campaign with a heavy emphasis on television spots and tie-in merchandise.
Now considered one of the greatest films ever made, Jaws was the prototypical summer blockbuster, with its release regarded as a watershed moment in motion picture history. Jaws became the highest-grossing film of all time until the release of Star Wars (1977). It won several awards for its soundtrack and editing. Along with Star Wars, Jaws was pivotal in establishing the modern Hollywood business model, which revolves around high box-office returns from action and adventure pictures with simple "high-concept" premises that are released during the summer in thousands of theaters and supported by heavy advertising. It was followed by three sequels, none with the participation of Spielberg or Benchley, and many imitative thrillers. In 2001, Jaws was selected by the Library of Congress for preservation in the United States National Film Registry, being deemed "culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant".
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11 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:
I've been looking at this twitter account over the past month and it's seemed pretty plausible, not sure what others here think about it?
Their storm naming convention isn't dramatic enough for me. It should scale from MEGA-EXTREME to APOCALYPTIC IMO.
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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
What does everyone think we'll get from Estofex for tomorrow?
I reckon it's a level 2...
Current model disagreement on shear. If GFS maintains little/no shear, then maybe a Level 1, maybe a 50% lightning zone. NMM, meanwhile, goes for a perfect combo of CAPE/precip/shear/helicity which will definitely push southern UK into level 2 and possibly northern England into Level 1.
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Best storm you've ever seen in the UK
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Yep, this is the one for me, bloody incredible. I could still see strikes at the cloud tops from Leeds when the centre of the storm was near Hartlepool.