AdamStorm7891
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Posts posted by AdamStorm7891
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Well if there was a so called intense squall I slept through most of it so it can't have been as bad as was being hyped up. 23/12/13 was alot worse here!
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Not much to get excited about here, occasional 40mph gusts nothing much more then that.
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Welcome the ramping. This is where people see charts that might as well be the next decade and go mad. Subsequently they are really disappointed and blame just about everyone else. LOL
Kent only.
Since when? Most forecasts I've seen have stated this will be a widespread event.
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Just heard the first noticeable gust against my bedroom window not much more then 30mph though, all rather tame so far!
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BBC London forecast just now downplaying gusts to 50mph when most other forecasts are suggesting 60+ there seems to be confusion galore. It would hardly seem worthit doing a news article about potential disruption if the gusts struggled to get above 50mph!
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Latest BBC forecast by Helen, she seemed alittle concerned about the storm
She used the term "powerful" you don't hear weather presenters say stuff like that too often!
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There's going to be an article about the approaching storm on BBC London News in a minute with a news reporter at Dartford bridge, I'm guessing they're thinking its going to get quite bad if its making the news and it hasn't even got going yet.
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Well the BBC London lunchtime forecast was still forecasting 60mph inland gusts so very confused now considering the Met Office gust predictor is going for 45-50mph at best!
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No.
I trust them with those gust speeds, they are the experts after all. I was merely saying that there seemed to be a growing concensus on here that it could be a storm to remember. What's predicted by the MO at the moment will not be a major historical event, just a bad winter storm.
I've noticed whenever significant storms are approaching that the Met Office gust predictions tend to downgrade in the 12 hours or so leading up to it, only yesterday evening it was predicting 55-65mph gusts as far inland as the London suburbs now it's only saying around 45mph, I'm not sure whether these latest readings can be entirely trusted. I remember 12 hours before St' Jude hit it said gusts for my location would struggle to reach 40mph we ended up getting a short spell of 60 to 70mph as the Sting Jet passed over!
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Most forecasts still indicating 60mph+ gusts inland and 70-80mph on coasts, winds look like peaking between midnight and 4am before slowly moderating towards dawn.
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I've had a look at the forecast gusts for Weds night in Chelmsford, Essex on a few sites and models:
MetOffice - 53
WeatherPro app - 44
Metcheck - 61
WeatherOnline - 44
AccuWeather - 58
GFS (18z) - 60 to 64
NetWx-SR (12z) - 56 to 60
Of course it's not an exact science and things locally could be very different.
What sort of wind gusts were being forecast for the south-east for St Jude (28/10/13) and the storm on 23/12/13?
(Sorry for the IMBYism but it's
interesting to compare the forecast gusts regardless of location!)
Met Office have downgraded the gusts by about 10mph where I am in the last 12 hours from 58 to 48mph but this happened before St Jude hit when originally they proposed 60mph and dropped them to only 40mph about 12 hours before it hit so I've learnt to take their forecasts with a pinch of salt, I personally find the GFS-P charts more or less spot on same for MetCheck who're going for widespread 60mph inland with 75-80mph on some exposed Western coasts.
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I thought they had christened the impending storm 'Rachel'?|
Sorry yes you're right its Rachel lol. Don't know where I got Emily from!
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London and South-East Weather page on Facebook forecasting 55-65mph inland with 70-80mph on coasts perhaps 90mph for a short time!
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So happy to see some snow on the forecast. Met office says light snow 4-7 and then 7-8 heavy snow. I wonder how accurate it is.
Do you think they'll be enough snow for the schools to have to close?
In a word NO, any settling snow will only be over high ground in The Chilterns etc...
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Updated Met wind gust map is now showing gusts around 75mph here late Thursday morning through to early afternoon, and they are usually a bit conservative with gust speeds. Interesting. Seems the GFSP was nearly spot on with this event even days away! Shame it hasn't updated since the 6z, it's meant to go live tomorrow.
Usually gusts end up being about 5 to 10mph stronger then the Met predictions so if it's indicating 75mph where you are expect something nearer 80+ it's saying 58mph for where I am so I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the mid 60's.
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WOW a tornado in London?...what will mother nature throw at us next? With warnings for; wind, rain, snow and ice all in force at once the only thing missing I guess is flying meatballs lol
Regarding the approaching storm apparently they've given it a name Emily, you kind of know it's going to be a noteworthy storm when they start giving it a title! -
Amber in the bag then, this storm is on the steroids. SE/EA looks to be under the damaging winds for lengthy time taking some time to clear the South East corner, only travel if you must - would be my advice.
I was rather hoping the worst of it would have passed by the time I set off for work at about 6am.
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Hi adam, was that for your area ?
Yes BBC London so that effectively means South-East and East Anglia and the surrounding Home Counties.
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BBC London forecast just a few minutes ago stated 65-70mph gusts likely!
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Wendy Hurrell on BBC London forecast hinted at the possibility of 65-70mph gusts (inland) surely that would warrant Amber warnings in due course?
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Thank you so not looking as bad for the southeast now phew
None of the official forecasts have said that, if anything they upgraded their Warnings today. The whole country is under threat from 60-70mph gusts with exposed coasts potentially seeing 80-90mph+
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Thanks for that, sensible and realistic snow and wind forecast. Even if i did say i was going to ignore the gfs, lol
Ignore Met Office gust predictions, they're not always reliable and tend to underestimate approaching storms. For example the evening before the St Jude storm it predicted we'd struggle to get gusts over 40mph we ended up getting more like 60+
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i certainly have Liam, i can't see anywhere that wouldn't see 70mph gusts at some point. the coasts especially are going to get battered!
A worrying thought that, are you suggesting that even London and the surrounding Counties could see 70mph gusts?
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Just come across this on another weather site, interesting although I don't think it will be as extreme as this is worded.
Just seen Countryfile and the storm tracked much as the 12z runs show, John also mentioned the storm could be deeper than he showed with even stronger winds.
Yes I just saw it, it looked menacing enough as it is with the isobars really squeezing up across the south of England on Wednesday night.
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Regarding the approaching storm apparently they've given it a name Emily, you kind of know it's going to be a noteworthy storm when they start giving it a title!
Atlantic Storm #2 Barney
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Evening folks just thought I'd drop in, well the purple dinosaur storm has arrived lol
The rain here earlier was torrential for awhile particularly between about 12.30 - 1pm, winds began picking up between 3 and 4pm now quite strong and gusty in the 35-40mph region I'd say at a guess. Not quite sure what to expect later on here but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts into the 50's at least, I'd be very surprised if we get anything over 60mph though!