AdamStorm7891
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Posts posted by AdamStorm7891
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Wind warnings issued for Wed/Thur - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50
I thought they might issue their first warnings at Noon today, good call.
Can we not go down the route of moaning because a storm didn't deliver in your back yard? I mentioned St Jude as a reference point to compare here, because it WAS potent, regular 80mph gusts on the coast, almost 100mph on exposed points.
Let's draw a line there. The MO have been awesome with their wind warnings over the last few years!
But they forecast 80mph for inland areas for St' Jude and it never materialized, just saying like! ;-)
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Yes, the St Jude storm was vicious in the south-east but only for about an hour. It was enough to cause a lot of trouble but that was mostly due to trees still being in leaf. The storm on 23/12/13 was more notable in terms of wind because it lasted longer but there was less tree-based trouble.
I wasn't following the models at the time of those storms. How does the coming storm compare to the St Jude and 23/12/13 storms based on the models?
Based on the models I'd say quite similar to the 23rd December 13 storm but stronger then St' Jude when MetO gust predictions started downgrading just hours before it hit. The highest gusts we got in St' Jude was only around 55-65mph and didn't last long so hardly the 80-90mph storm of the century they where hyping it up to be!
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A couple of fergie tweets this morning:
@fergieweather: "@BrianCarter14: Looks like a very nasty system. The track is uncertain perhaps Ian?" Yes, although not expected as far N as one last week
@fergieweather: @BrianCarter14 ...Thus this time, emphasis for strongest winds is southern UK rather than far north. But it'll take time for clearer details
Looking at the MO wind map (cautiously) it is showing higher gust speeds down here than the St Jude's day storm. I use that as an example because quite a few folks called it a "leaf rustler"
Not here! I went out that night to St Aldhems head in Swanage, to get some readings- we had to leave quickly due to so much debris flying about and trees coming down.
That aside, I am looking forward to such a varied and exciting period of weather!
St Jude = Officially the most overhyped storm in history, the storms in October 2000 and 2002 where both significantly stronger and longer lasting. A wind event that only lasts about 40 minutes can't even be warranted a Storm in my opinion, it was a freak squall nothing more!
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The highest record gust from the 1987 storm was 122mph at Gorleston on sea (East Norfolk). Burns day storm was 104 mph gusts. So this one is looking quite a fair way from it. As Daniel* says, the location of this storm will likely warrant an amber warning in the windiest areas.
Yes it's true that 1987 saw gusts of 110-120mph+ in some coastal towns but inland it was more generally between 80-100mph so anything much above 70mph inland is really going some which doesn't seem out of the question for Wednesday night although I think 55-60mph will be the general rule of thumb. The fact that Shetland has seen gusts in the same territory as 1987 in recent days surely warranted a RED warning? It's bordering on barbaric that no Red Warnings where issued, try telling those who have been without power for 3 days that Red Warnings shouldn't have been!
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Shetland and the western islands are use to pretty extreme weather and are very resilient. The strength of these events are measured against any potential impact and then the necessary warnings are issued. I think something incredible would have to hit Shetland or western islands for the UKMO to issues a 'red' warning.
But that gust of 113mph was the strongest on record in Stornoway so surely this warrants the term "incredible" even by their standards, and it was equally if not more powerful then the 1987 storm, but I guess you're right because it's not heavily populated up there there's less of an impact!
Yes in met terms, beaufort etc your right its storm force 10, but i always compare storms to those up north and western isles - thats my gauge. If we get 90+ forecast then i will be saying OMG a lot, lol.
90+ would be comparable to 1987 and the Burn's Day storms and I really don't think we want to go there do we?...
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60-70 mph just about qualifies for the word 'storm' in my book, from imby point of view i would like upgrades but thats not likely.
Ive watched every gfs run on this since it started showing and next time I will not get too excited until the official warnings come out.
Well on the Beaufort Scale anything over 55mph qualifies as Storm Force 10.
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Looking like wind gusts of between 60 and 70mph will be the likely outcome. Perhaps to coin a clichéd phrase, this does look like one of those "once a winter" type storms. Bad yes, but not to an extreme event level. I would expect this will bring yellow or perhaps amber warnings to a large part of the UK, most likely spots for the highest warnings being western and southern counties.
No an extreme event is 80-90mph+ or if you like in the far north of Scotland 100mph+ lol
113mph at Stornoway the other day, why was only Amber warnings issued? Surely RED warnings where warranted, there's no doubt there would have been had that been down South. -
For those that like snow in John Hammonds latest forecast for the week ahead he said once Wednesday/Thursdays storm has passed the Jetstream is going to sink south of us allowing colder air to plunge down from the north with more places seeing wintry showers, so maybe a sign of our first real cold snap (wintry spell) coming up!
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Looks like we're in for a rough ride, any upgrades would certainly start getting concerning!
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Hi Jules, im going by the latest meto wind map, nothing much above 30 mph
Could be out of date and change a lot next update but ive seen this happen all too many times now.
I'm still convinced you're looking at predicted mean winds (NOT) gusts.
However the latest update from GFS and there's been a noticeable downgrade!
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Met office wind map now showing maxes of just 30 mph south east, as I expected.
Now where has that interesting little feature for saturday gone....
Are you sure you're not looking at average (mean) winds there? Gusts will be more like double that based on current graphs.
Winds look to peak at around midnight Wednesday into Thursday across the South-East with 60mph+ potentially in and around London and the Home Counties with coasts experiencing 75-80mph with a narrow band of 90mph+ showing out in the North-Sea just offshore from The Wash.
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06Z GFS, deeper than the 0Z and further south.
^^ This model gives the scariest scenario
But this 1 seems the most probable!
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Was hoping strongest of winds would clear by thurs morning as I'm travelling
I think they will have, the peak of the winds at this stage appears to occur between midnight and 3am Thursday morning before beginning to ease off by the time dawn breaks it'll probably just be a little bit blustery.
So what king of gusts are the South East likely to get?
Overnight gusts will be potentially 60-70mph inland based on current predictions with 75-80 locally perhaps more on exposed coasts, hold on tight!
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Hi just wondering if there's any updates for the 14/15 storm hoping its not too bad for my wedding
Countryfile forecast tomorrow should give us a slightly clearer indication of what to expect but at the moment its not looking pretty :-(
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BBC weather have increased the winds for Wednesday night and are indicating 2 spells with it peaking around midday Thursday.
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Some monster ensembles!
I'll be soiling myself if the charts are still suggesting something as monumental as that in a couple of days time.
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Yes, the GFS has the most extreme evolution.
I don't think it'll be as severe as the GFS is making out, because supposedly the upper level Jetstream is loosing some of it's potency therefore there'll be less energy stirring up any LP systems heading our way although if a big storm was to develop because the upper level winds wouldn't be as strong the ground level winds could last for longer!
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Flicked through the charts and I picked the strongest wind gust chart shown for Wed/Thurs.
Hmmm... depends on what Chart/Graph you read I suppose, the Netweather graph and GFS charts are going for 60 to 90mph winds from around 9pm Wednesday through until the early hours of Thursday before easing off.
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That's because the winds will be dying down by Thursday daytime, most of the strongest winds will be overnight Wednesday into Thursday!
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Yes it'll be a case of Round 3 for Scotland on Monday, I don't envy them up there it must feel like the Florida Keys in hurricane season lol. A proper windstorm in the South is overdue though!
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It looks increasingly like if this storm is going to hit that it'll mostly be Wednesday evening overnight into Thursday, so this will of course minimalize the impact comparatively speaking to if it was to hit during the daytime.
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Looking at the wind gusts GFS P is showing I wouldn't be surprised if the met issue early warnings tomorrow given that large parts of England and Wales could be in the firing line
Some exceptionally strong wind gusts for some highly populated areas, could even warrant a red warning for some parts
If this was to come to fruition I think I'll immigrate lol
70mph+ inland gusts for inland areas across the SE including London on this and 90+ out in the North-Sea and in The Channel. -
Welcome back! I'm just up the road from you in South Ockendon.
It'll be interesting to see how things develop for us then Meggy. Interestingly I typed in Upminster for Netweather's local forecast and the graph showed winds peaking on Wednesday evening here with the pressure gradient dropping to 990mb (so I suspect we are a fair way from the LP centre and the strongest of the winds) but it still suggested gusts in the region of 60mph.
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Pick of the bunch for me was Member no 5, 90 to 100mph gusts easy..... Can't even make out where the UK is, looking at this chart!
EDIT..........At least we may have some horIzontal SNOW
A scary prospect IF that was to come off.
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113mph at Stornoway the other day, why was only Amber warnings issued? Surely RED warnings where warranted, there's no doubt there would have been had that been down South.
70mph+ inland gusts for inland areas across the SE including London on this and 90+ out in the North-Sea and in The Channel. 
Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat
in Regional
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If the predicted winds upgrade by about 30mph then yes but that highly unlikely, at this stage its looking comparable to the 23rd December 13 storm. Nasty yes but nothing out of the norm for a mid winter storm!