[Moans, ramps and banter]

Weeks of potential has turned into a week of cooler than average conditions and frost. I fear many people will feel exactly the same. Been well and truly taken up the garden path once again. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

ATM this is giving me Decemeber 2022 vibes, very cold with very little snow 

Atleast Initially, but fingers crossed things improve later on!

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Brilliant day 9 mean ecm

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Fantastic set of runs. Some folk need to chill a little. Winter proper is just around the corner ;)

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Gem, locked and loaded

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yesterday's Icon 12z vs today's 00z. Shift North definitely.

Potential snow maker, low to South and cold air diving south.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

I've not posted much in the last week or so, but I've been viewing the forums with fascination whilst also following the charts. Since I joined 6 years ago, this is by far the busiest and most upbeat I've ever seen it in here. We've had a very decent cold spell which is ultimately coming to and end this weekend. Some have seen significant snow, some haven't. With about 80% of winter left to go, I'm not too worried. The models are all over the place atm and FI is about 84hrs. I'm still happy and comfortable in saying I think we will see an even better cold spell with more snow around the Christmas period running into early January. This will be my last post before Christmas so whatever your plans, have a good one.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Gem says merry Christmas everyone!!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Nice little streamer popped up for Saturday

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Is winter coming home along with football! What a peach 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Pure filth!

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

That has to be the most underplayed forecast I've ever seen from the met. Settling snow won't be confided to Scottish hills. Little troughs can pop up at a days notice. While I do agree, the risk of snow THIS week has somewhat been watered down, I believe it will be a long term gain.

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Some people are never satisfied. One hiccup and the panicking starts. There's variation and changes run to run on all output. We aren't going to know exact details regarding any snow until atleast early next week. I think some need to chill out and enjoy the ride. The professionals are all on board and they wouldn't be so forward if they didn't have high confidence. Winter is coming and it's coming next week!

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Vast majority of GFS blew the Atlantic up in 2010 in fi. Amazes me people looking for a breakdown before we potentially see the real deal end of next week. Just no pleasing some. We are all set for a potentially brilliant cold spell.

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Just to calm the nerves, the ecm had the occasional wobble in the run up to Dec 2010. Overall though, it was a clean route to cold. I fully expect the 12z ecm to come back on board. 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

ECM mean, steady as she goes. .

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Happy Meteorological Winter everyone! All set for a December to remember! 

[December 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests _ start of a new contest year]

1.2c, 27mm

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Ecm mean looks good to me

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

GEM couldn't be further apart from the GFS.

[Competition: How hot is it going to be?]

37.6 Heathrow Airport, Wednesday 13 July 2022

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Gfs 6z, still not having it. Going the same way as the 0z Op. Imo we need to be back on track for the 12z, as little doubts are starting to set in. Let's hope its at the bottom end of the ens again.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

I hate to ask, but has the UK ever had a colder than Average Jan and Feb when the Dec CET is above 6? Can't think of one. Unfortunately this winter looks like it's going down the gutter.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Perhaps I was daft to say game over this morning with the Ecm and UKMO both being poor. Please let's have a good ecm tonight for complete model agreement which we have seriously lacked in the build up to this potential cold snap. Unprecedented model divergence. But for now atleast; the game is back on! 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Ukmo and ecm aren't both going to be wrong at 120hrs. Sorry but game over