[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Looking through the ens for next week, quite a lot of them deliver.. esp north. 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Not too bad at all, mean consistently at  or around -5 for some time, in London. Some decent zonality may just be around the corner, then who knows, the easterly we crave so badly may come at the end of the month

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Day 6 and ukmo pick of the bunch by far

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I thought the 6z was an upgrade on the 0z in terms of snow prospects for many, including a strong Cheshire Gap streamer for here, other parts of the Midlands and parts of Wales. Although, finer details will chop and change until very short range, of course. A bit surprised to see some doom and gloom on here. 

Agree, completely.  North western areas look prime spot for snow showers. Then, as the winds turn more northerly, Northern and eastern areas are prime spots 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Great news,We have the big three on board now

Bad news is the Gem/Jma and icon are not good at all.

I'd love it if we could get all on board. Obviously you'd favour the big three but nothing like a nagging feeling in the back of your head.

Edit.. after looking again, the jma ain't too bad.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Ukmo a beauty 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

All in all, a good day for coldies. Ukm at 144 the pick of the bunch, looking forward to seeing the 168 chart. 

Great support from the gefs next week for a potent northerly.. snow chances aplenty. 

In the short term, those in the east, like me, should very much look forward to tomorrow!!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Significant snow event north of the low this weekend? Certainly possible. If the gfs and ukmo 12z came off disruptive snow on higher ground in the north. 

 

Thereafter, frequent snow showers piling into more northern and western regions.

Encouraging signs. 

 

Happy coldie here.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

18z looking good.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Not what we want to see. Sickener!!!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Lol just for fun.. ens number 13 anyone 

:).

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Well, what a mess. Still all to play for although i do get that sickening feeling that the 'oh so familiar' westerlies will dart across us next week. Gfs op is awful, a few but not many decent ens- although the ens do tend to follow the op. 

 

Ecm could go either way but that's probably our best shot at cold.

 

Ukmo is okay at 144hrs and could produce something decent going through next week.

 

Gem back to it's usual zonal pattern. We should get a better idea by 12z runs tomorrow. 

:).

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Ecm mean at Day 10!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Atleast the Gem has changed it's mind on the 12z. :).

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Imo the most crucial set of 12z runs of season so far. Lets hope they all come on board for us coldies and make this forum a very happy place later this evening..

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a relief to see the Ecm / Gfs colder unsettled solution being favoured..hopefully this means coldies ( the majority on here) will get to enjoy plenty of cold weather from late next week onwards with frosts and a growing risk of snow before winter even starts..what a bonus that would be!

Is this finally the winter we've been craving so badly ????

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

27 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Great new signs ... still wait a few days from now (thats what always gives some uncertainty) lets follow day by day

Wow that screams huge potential for a classic end of nov snowy spell. Let's hope it comes off.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Hmm new nao and ao forecast.. make of it what you will

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Here again for another winter rollercoaster ride. Always much more livelier on here during the winter months,look forward to reading everyone's views and I'll share mine aswell 

[Hurricane Ophelia]

Well what an experience. Truly incredible. Some of the damage we witnessed in Cork. 

 

[Hurricane Ophelia]

I'm here in Cork, travelled for the storm. Safe to say, Its very eerie. We've been advised not go out after 9am. Will try and get some good videos from the hotel window.

[Hurricane Ophelia]

Me and my good friend are flying out to Cork on sunday. Looking to get some great videos. Will share my experience later next week.

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

I hope I'm wrong but got a feeling this is gonna cause a lot of people disappointment. Dew points above freezing may mean rain for many on Saturday. Typical as the heavier precipitation gets in.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Well, cross model agreement on it Turning much milder next week, what an awful winter it has been for the Met. 

Anyway, in the short term, some good news, a 4-5 day cold spell. Some snow around, areas prone, Eastern Scotland and North East England, although many places could see something come Saturday and Sunday.  Some moderation from the north sea may spoil the party nearer to the coast.

Enjoy the cold

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Cant be very often we see charts predicting -10 upper and rain in the same place

Yeah, do you know why this is? Or can anyone help me. Eastern regions having  a real mix of rain sleet and snow on Saturday with-7 uppers and dew points of 0 or below. Doesn't make sense to me.