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Connor Bailey Degnan
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Posts posted by Connor Bailey Degnan
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We are very dependant of where the low goes next weekend. If it heads south we open up all sorts of options.
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Some excellent charts there in FI
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With the NAO set to go negative again shortly, a very disrupted PV, Most longer ranges cold and stratospheric warming, I see cold potential right the way through December and possibly the end of November. exciting times indeed.
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At the minute, some longer range models are still wanting to go with a cold and snowy end to the month. It's a very very hard topic to talk about because it's so very close to happening and I can see a lot of disappointment occurring if it ends up mild/not cold.
There are plenty of factors whilst looking at the end of this month. The Pv being one. Stratospheric warming and the possibility of the models getting very confused. Not one model seems to be agreeing after about 144hrs.
Personally I can't see a 2010 repeat this winter, unfortunately, however I can see more periods of snow and cold temperatures through the winter, especially early on, December/ early January.
As it stands the NAO is expected to return to negative after mid month, and with a weak PV and the warming taking place, I see a good chance of a cold end to the month.
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CFS never the best model but starting to hint at a cold end to November!
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3.4c please
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Another Good GFS update. Personally think we could see something wintry in March as well now. Before then i'm sticking with my prediction of a cold and snowy outbreak between 11-18th February before the Atlantic pushes back in with a milder south westerly setting up.
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Yes, rain and wind does look likely to feature quite a lot in the next week or two, but strong signals are there now for the jet to dive south from around the 11th and allow a colder North-westerly to Northerly to develop, enhancing the risk of snow events across more northern areas of the United Kingdom. However, I certainly wouldn't rule out parts of the south seeing some snowfall later on in February. I feel the Strat warming will almost definitely come into place now from around the second week of Feb!
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Interesting outlook from the models this evening. Looks like we could have a very interesting February. My current thinking is that we won't see any 'significant cold' until 11th February with the strat warming. Before then, i think we will see some colder pockets with the risk of snow.
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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
something not matching? GFS how can it snow with these temps? GFS precip charts are useless
These are maximum temperatures and you can get snow falling and settling in this set up because of dew points being at or below freezing and upper air temps of -5 to -8
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Majority of Yorkshire looks dry, albeit very cold with frosty conditions prevailing through the day with those uppers of -6 or -7. Lincolnshire looking the much better out of the 2 countys for snow, constant risk of snow running down the east, thursday through to saturday. With dew points mainly at or below freezing, i'd expect even lower elevations to get a covering and perhaps more. Higher ground in excess of 10cm looking likely at the minute. Some surprise snowfalls are on the way for parts of Lincolnshire.
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Nothing cut and dry yet, however, best chance of any 'significant snowfall' looks to be west and east coasts this coming week/end
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Great news this morning, all models trending towards very cold air until at least Monday. Highest risk of snow certainly across the east, where even to lower levels a few cm+ is likely. Wishbone becomes active on Saturday so any snow at the eastern coast. In summery, the further west you are, you're much drier but very cold. The further east you are the more snow and very cold also. Time to start getting excited!
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GFS 12z was an upgrade in the short term,with snow settling a distinct possibility even to lower levels from Thursday, however by late Sunday the atlantic finally wins the battle. I feel the gfs may well be cutting the cold off to quickly so could be interesting to say the least on the ecm tonight. Dew points, isotherm and uppers much better from snow thursday to saturday
chin up snow lovers!
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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:
£50 of my money says we have a 'half way house' ecm tonight with high pressure in control of the weather after 144z and the atlantic staying put for the moment, any takers?
Think you could be right.
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Here, i have attached the Precipitation, dew points, upper airs 850pha and precipitation type at 6am on 14/01/2016 and you can see just how incredibly difficult it is to predict.
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Based on this mornings runs I think we can safely say a cold 'snap' is on the way atleast with the highest chance of any snow Thursday onwards. However, some parts could be disappointed. For snow to fall and settle, realistically you need a 0c dewpoint and upper air temperatures around -5. Based on the GFS 06z we eventually get everywhere into a -5 or below upper and dew points at freezing or below. Thursday is very interesting because we start the day in the east above -5 uppers and as high and 4c dewpoint. This would deliver rain virtually all day during Thursday the further east you go with the highest risk of snow further north and west until eventually during the evening on the 14th we see snow just about anywhere. Things could and probably will change.
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Wow ecm is eye candy pretty much nationwide. -8 uppers for the majority of the country by Thursday with an increased risk on snow just about anywhere if this verifies. I think if the GFS 18z hops on board tonight, us snow lovers can start to get very excited!
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Anything could still happen after 96hrs, i think the ecm will jump on board with the UKMO and GEM. GFS always trys to bring in the atlantic to quick.
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1 minute ago, Cloud buster said:
Sorry for this but what time do the GFS 00Z Come out , Mods please delete after my Reply . Thanks
Starts at 3.30am should be done by 5 am
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Looks like another night of waiting up to see if the gfs 00z delivers, got a good feeling about this one. ECMWF could be extremely interesting, will it continue the 12z run with bitter cold air close to us? Anything could happen after day 5. It's just a guessing game from there on tbh.
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ECMWF usually handles cold spells better and has most of Europe in a deep freeze by day 10, wouldn't take much to shift that further west and put us cold lovers in paradise. #ThinkingPositive
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Models are all over the place as it stands, anything could happen. Let's enjoy the cold snap at least and see what happens there on.
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I agree for the shorter term. Longer term, into the early part of December, There is a lot of potential. I honestly think in the days ahead we'll start to see some "BOOM" charts. I feel this because all longer output nearly is pointing towards cold. EC, JMA, ECMWF monthly and the CFS.
With a very weak PV, a negative NAO and strat warming, everything is there, all set up nicely, just need to be patient and hope.
Also* would be nice to build some cold in continental Europe before we get our long awaited easterly.