Day 10

Nothing wrong with that.

Joe Bloggs I really do feel your pain with that shadow effect as the Wirral has many ways of avoiding snow too depending on the setup, that 5 baron years quite recently was horrible, chasing, posting, chasing, posting only to sit here with rain while pics come flying in of snow all around the region. I suppose it's swings and roundabouts with certain setups and certain parts of our region, the region has crazy localized weather at times. My fingers are crossed for you. We might still end up with rain yet, who knows.

Joe Bloggs The Wirral & parts of Liverpool have upgraded overnight Joe, it's by far our best setup, about a 1 in 10 year event. As others have said, the Met text forecast doesn't really match this mornings charts though from what I can see. I'd say snowfall pushing in from about 7am in the south of the region, lasting until about lunchtime before gradually fizzling out. The 2 main ones. GFS ECM The snow then continues to push north turning a little more patchy as it does so, quickly followed by another heavier pulse which will fall as rain in the south of the region but snow further north, especially on the hills. I think most of us will see the white stuff Thurs or Fri. Thurs pm. Fri early hours.

winterof79 Exactly, there is nothing better and I will still be the same when I'm 80! Latest GFS is fine. I'm knackered, goodnight all.

Had Worse Lol, I was just posting this if anyone wants an early snow fix. From the 31st minute onward it goes truly nuts!

Amazing!

All the models I can think of at 9am & 12 noon for Thursday. WRF HARMONE AROME ARPEGE ICON ECM GFS

Kasim Awan The Met think so too. The Wirral's best setup is this and normally Liverpool's too.

Chris.R Yeah, I remember waking up early hours to torrential rain and thinking oh well nevermind, woke up to it being eerily quiet and got the shock of my life when opening the curtains. Surprise snow is always the best. Joe Snow Nice one, great timing then

Joe Snow That Winter was actually very good here, however, we then went 5 years without. Others that year... 27th Feb 2018. Then, 8th March 2018. Did you get anything then?

Joe Snow Here's that setup Joe

ECM

russwirral Yes, although rare, these setups are probably number 1 for here with the Cheshire Gap setup 2nd. Our deepest snowfall has always come from the Atlantic pushing in with SE winds.

Weather-history Some quite eye catching charts there! 10-19cm of lying snow for the Wirral from their hi-res model, not sure about that lol. Interesting isotherm too. They seem quite bullish about the medium term also.

@Jackski4 Further ahead looks cold too. Although there is still some uncertainty, conditions slightly more-likely to be drier and more settled overall with lighter winds, from a more N'ly or E'ly direction than usual. This increases the likelihood of cold conditions developing more widely with an enhanced risk of fog and frost, alongside wintry showers almost anywhere, but perhaps most-especially near E or N facing coasts. There is still a risk (albeit lower than climatology) of Atlantic frontal systems (and less-cold conditions) bringing rain across parts of the country now and again, especially the W/SW but this would likely bring a longer period of snow somewhere. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024

Jackski4 Exactly, I normally post in there but I've not bothered recently as don't see the point and I can see why some experienced members have moved on over the years. I'm just going to focus in here from now on.

Jackski4 The above ties in with the potential cold moving in from the east as per Met. 11th - 20th UK long range weather forecast Remaining unsettled initially with further rain and hill snow across the far N, elsewhere a mixture of sunny intervals and rain showers. Thereafter a trend toward more settled, but likely cold conditions is favoured with snow showers tending to focus on eastern coasts. Elsewhere, a decent amount of dry weather, but with some hard overnight frosts and a risk of ice. Again milder air may try to encroach from the Atlantic, bringing with it the usual risk of rain turning to snow as it encounters the cold air, but this very uncertain. Windy at times, especially in the E at first, with a notable wind-chill. Temperatures generally in the range rather cold to cold, especially across the north. Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024

Not far off a very cold setup moving forward here at 120.

The Mod Thread has just become the pointless thread! What a joke!

Second batch for the north of our region.

UKMO More a wintry mix.

The Northern Ramper I thought it had earlier but maybe it is just slowing down that's all. GFS

Then there's the second batch Thurs into Fri, I wonder if that could upgrade to all snow too? It's slowly improving

ICON & ARPEGE Thurs morning, slow progress.

Thunder Snow There are 2, the second one looks better for you by which time will be rain down here.