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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
BLS replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think there is a chance this low does trend further south as we move through the week and the SE corner will be in the game as well. Low chance but there is a chance -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Did well and as most thought the DP and Wet Bulb levels were enough for a good amount of snow at low levels! Lots of reports across Kent Surrey and London of 1-5cms of settled snow -
Morning all Quite happy when I woke up about an hour ago to heavy snow falling! Decent amount here maybe 2cm which is good considering it could of been nothing! I am glad that most have seen something Unfortunately it will all be gone by this time tomorrow morning and we will be back to heavy rain lol
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And there we go like I got at earlier the met office change to heavy snow symbols in the late evening for tomorrow morning! I would expect anywhere north/Northwest of Ashford will see heavy and potentially disruptive and continuous snow between 3am and 10am tomorrow morning! wether it settles that is another question. I would say due to the clear skies drying/freezing the ground before hand there is a good chance! Good luck everyone and goodnight
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the system coming into the SW right now looks about right so far although maybe a tad slower -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When does the next UKV come out? Lost track of my timings lol -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is still a part of me that thinks this may come south a tad more as well in the next few runs or may be further south when I comes into tomorrow’s radar By further south I don’t think by much though -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This Thursday sliding low has a real risk of ending up giving London some snow as well potentially. I can potentially see this moving south again throughout tonight and tomorrow! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn’t write the SE off based on the recent model runs this afternoon! I expect some shift South still to happen just depends how much -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If this keeps up falling south like it has been and is correct (very small chance at the moment) even the south and SE could see something later in the week and weekend! Would need another major change like this though -
I think Kent will see some snow over night and rush hour tomorrow as will most places and then the same for tomorrow evening. In my opinion don’t worry what the met office and BBC weather symbols are saying in my experience they always stay as rain or sleet until 2/3 hours before the snow arrives and then change. Ignore the most recent Icon run moving Wednesday night north, I’m pretty sure that will drop it south again! The models to Watch are the UKV, Arome and ARPEGE 2 of 3 of which seem to be in agreement for most of us to see laying snow tomorrow. GFS and ECM are also on bored which is good
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Encouraging signs -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah I full expect it to move it north as well, I think we may see an amber warning for M4 corridor and maybe parts of London and Kent tonight, although the met forecast has only ever been rain symbols for me I can see that changing around 10pm as the radar has snow for a long time tomorrow lol -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting that the UKV is having none of the morning snow for the south in the morning I expect that to change on the next run maybe also all then models keep Wednesday now snow impact mainly south of the M4 unlike the ICON -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I mean most have probably ignored it as 1. It’s the Icon 2. That’s a big shift north for one run would expect to to sink it south again in the next run. 3. We might as well ignore everything until it shows up on the radar to be honest lol 4 it’s the Icon -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed there is also I think a chance Kent could see snow all day from Early Wednesday morning till late Wednesday night, and there is a very slim chance of Thursday pull into Kent on the back end of the cold can dig in -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would be very surprised if it goes that far north to be honest -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
BLS replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would expect it to pull a little more south