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Rain123

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  1. Upper cold pool slowly drifts northeast across SE Britain over next 12-24hrs atop an increasingly moist southerly surface flow - which will steepen lapse rates tonight and into Wednesday, with GFS indicating a few 100 j/kg CAPE spreading onshore across SE England early tomorrow afternoon:

     

    attachicon.gifcape_w12z.png

     

    So potential for the odd rumble of thunder from the heavier showers expected through tomorrow.

     

    Same cold pool has destabilised the relatively warm/moist airmass over west central France this evening,

     

    attachicon.gifFrance sferics 19z 031115.png

     

    ...though, as often in the summer too, lightning seems to have died as the mass of rain from these earlier storms heads across the English Channel.

     

    Strange seeing this unstable set-up from the south in November, as it's much like a summer thundery plume set-up with low moving NE out of Biscay destabilising the plume, particularly earlier over France earlier before the storms die as they get wind of the Channel!

    Wow - a bit late, but many thanks.

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