[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

is it around 2-3am for my area if a thames one sets up?

Yep about right 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Clear Skies overhead briefly and wow some temp drop.

All the energy get strangled out of that front sinking south and precip decaying now.

All eyes to the Estuary for the next 6 hours, will it or wont it

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Hmmmm. Let’s see if old mother Thames can deliver the goods. Not getting that vibe to be honest, doesn’t feel right. But let’s see what the radar says next hour or two.

Yh I know what you mean, but would ring true with the sudden turn off just offshore on the showers, usually works this way, maybe there will be a drier slot and then things get rocking and rolling again. Maybe as I took my readings at 9pm there was an ENE Wind and its predominantly NNE. But the signs are good and the clouds are now racing more WSW than SW.

One to watch for sure, also North of Chelmsford that seems to be some sort of shrinking energy so is the stuff over us going to relax south over the next few hours to set the stage for some proper showers in the early hours.

Snow forecasting and things cropping up and chopping and changing is never easy

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

9pm Obs

Temp is - 2.5c

Dewp is - 5.1c

Wind is ENE

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3cm added here since 6pm so about 1cm per hour atm hope that continues until 6am lol

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

The false returns near Margate and sometimes north of Whitstable could also be wind farms. 

The ones in the USA pick up the Dodge City Windfarms and have fooled many a chaser into haring off at 50mph getting onto initiation lol

But don't know wether our crappy radars would pick up things like that but Doplar definately does

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Strange goings on with the radar 

When greens are overhead its dry and when there are breaks in the radar it snows lol

Something up with it me thinks 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Yh proper showers in the NE the type we got on radar on 2009/2010 when we were gutted we were getting yellows at times what we would give for some yellow radar returns now - It's all a bit meh 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

It can literally be as lucky as getting clear skies for a few hours. Nothing much was settling all day yesterday, the sky cleared around 7pm for around 3 hours and since then everything has settled and is frozen solid. We had zero snow melt here today. 

Exactly the same here zero snow melt under leaden grey skies with bits and pieces of snow. Then skies cleared 30 minutes b4 sunset and Cb Towers were evident to my east. But like you snow pack left same depth now topped up a bit

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

10 minutes ago, SortitoutsiVP said:

White House Road?

Well Spotted

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Still hammering it down here 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Heavy snow here right now, tyre tracks and footprints filled in last 30 minutes or so

Yh brushed the car off at 4pm and its covered again now and cars doing 5mph in the Ungritted roads yet again!!!! 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

That's strange, still -1.2c here

Agree can't see a single station above - 1c East of London?? 

Surely that 1.2c can't be correct

Even Southend AP is - 2c

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Moderate here now but with some stuff coming up the pipeline...added near a cm in the last 1/2 hour!

Yep about a Cm here as well in last 30mins - 2cm per hour would be nice

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

6 minutes ago, snow raven said:

Hi Paul, do you have a rough time of when the winds swing ENE?  I'm pinning my hopes on a Thames snow streamer tonight for my location

Some time between 11pm and 3am on some models others later hoping its earlier for you 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Current trajectory is between Rochester and Gravesend 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Save some for Benfleet Paul... !!

On there way to you next then Medway by the looks of the trajectory until the ENE swings them further west 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Lining up like buses snowing nicely 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Starting to come down heavier now, the very beginning of the big blob of snow just starting to hit me.

Yh tracks in the road again nice to see should be a decent evening and nice to see the gaps between showers as well proper convection here 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Had an errand to do out near Wakering today so had a look at how they fared 7 miles east of here and some nice scenes of the North Easterly snow drifts out that way exposed to the harsh winds on Sunday. 

Much better looking sky here now with an orange sky and sunset to the west and blue skies above with pitch black skies to the east in fact the first shower of snow from the Estuary just started 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Atmosphere needs a breather again sorry to bang the Storms drum but quite often when areas in the States get worked over on continuous days the SPC often refer to it as the atmosphere has been beaten up a bit give it a bit of time to dry out and more moisture feeds in later. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

So surely there are no posters who say the Amber wasnt warranted now ?? I know not every area in the Amber got what an Amber warning deserved but plenty of places did. When Storm warnings are Issued not every place in those warnings get a Storm for Instance.

Some places now well over 20cm and with roads closed and drifting and stories of tractors rescuing people trapped etc. Add into that quite exceptional  temperatures for a Maritime Island not rising above -2c then surely the people saying the Amber should not have been Issued can say it certainly was. 

I think the Met Office have done a great job with the risk zones and the timings of things.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

I know we call it the TSS or Thames Snow Streamer but by rights it should be called the DPCZ (Dengie Peninsular Convergence Zone) 

That unique part of Essex and its shape perpendicular to the Coast sees winds from 3 different heights at 600mb/700mb and the Steering flow converge to create lift against the land (frictional drag effect) and you find showers will always form in the same place (eg SE Of Clacton) and then spread WSW into the London area and SE London and if strong enough parts of Surrey and Hampshire.

I am seeing a decent window around 9pm until 3am tomorrow morning and checking on the charts atm

Arpege agrees with some decent totals into SE London and NW Kent.

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

With regard to wind direction as well as shower direction, we need to remember that its not the surface flow that will dictate the direction but the flow a little above out heads. Current flow at 850hpa is thus:

Given the convection is quite thin I'd guess at the moment, we don't need to go high for a steering current, but in deeper convection 700mbs+ maybe more useful. I'm sure Paul S could give a better explanation though as its key in storm chasing!!

Usually there isn;t much difference but at times there can be. Yesterday evening was one of those days where the lower flow was near due north (NNE) but the airflow higher up was ENE/E, hence why the shower bands shifted westwards as the forcing at higher levels was forced Westwards but kept moving SSW on the lower airflow currents.

 

Yh what did us over here in 2009 was the differing wind direction at 700hpa down this end of the Estuary with a NNE Steering wind creating frictional drag into the Estuary (at our end) whereas 20 miles further west the 700mb winds were ENE and also cloud tops rose upto 600mb, plain and simple the showers formed too close to the Estuary shore and not 50-100 miles further out and scuppered the coasts with an Inversion layer. I always look to see where the convergence lines at 700mb to 600mb are setting up in these instances and where the streamlines are concurrent to where the coast and land is. Its crucial in these situations.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Really been coming down here for the last hour, traffic on roads now down to around 10mph, whats it like in Rayleigh or the higher places around here with some hills ? But grass totals topping up nicely now and all paths and roads covered easily now meaning the ground temps are very condusive to settling.

Temp is -2.6c

Dewp is -4.3c

Stunning spell over Easterly weather and the cold is really setting in now.

Have not looked in the Model thread but if the cold is getting shoved out of the way does that mean a Snow to Rain event incoming at some point ?